Briefly:

• Zaluzhny was dismissed because he became more popular under President Zelensky.

• It will be difficult to get the declared amount of aid from the US — about 60 billion.

• Russia will try to completely subjugate the Belarusian military machine and refocus it on actions against NATO countries.

• Lukashenka would like to win, but preferably without war.

- How did the Ukrainian society perceive the loss of Avdeyevka, is it considered a serious defeat?

Eugene Magda

- The importance of Avdeevka was that it is very close to Donetsk, and from there it was possible to reach Donetsk - this was its main military significance. The front line was there for 10 years.

For the Kremlin, before the "elections", Putin needed some kind of symbol, and they did not count with sacrifices and means. They used "winged aerial bombs" to bomb everything there.

I do not see any dramatic consequences inside Ukraine. However, the fall of Avdeevka took place against the background of the dismissal of the commander-in-chief Zaluzhnyi - this raises certain questions.

— How does Zaluzhnyi's resignation look from the point of view of the political struggle, from the point of view of the next presidential elections?

- I don't see Zaluzhny as a presidential candidate, because his popularity was primarily based on the fact that he is a military man. I think he was removed because he became more popular under President Zelensky. But here is one more point - today the head of intelligence Budanov is also more popular than Zelenskyi.

Secondly, now we have a whole cohort of generals who fought since 2014. The new commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Alexander Syrsky, is also from this cohort. Therefore, it would be wrong to say that with the resignation of Zaluzhny, everything was exposed. But this resignation was not explained to the people, and this, in my opinion, is a serious problem.

I think that now Ukraine will have to switch to defense — that's a pretty obvious fact.

- Move to defense - why? Because the Russians got stronger, sent hundreds of thousands of new people and equipment to the front? Is it because Western support in 2023 was much less than in 2022, and not enough for offensive operations?

- Western aid, indeed, was not enough. There was a lack of armored vehicles, we still haven't received planes - maybe we will get them this year. Therefore, the transition to defense is a necessary step. We need to protect people and look at everything realistically. After all, Russia is flooding the front with its troops. Ukraine obviously cannot afford such an approach.

- There is very contradictory information, including in the Ukrainian media, about how the mobilization in Ukraine is going. Obviously, there are no more queues at the military office. More often they write about how the military commissions catch conscripts in various places. How strong is Ukraine's mobilization potential today?

— Queues at the Ukrainian military commissions really stood in the first days after the Russian invasion on February 24, 2022 — this is reality, not propaganda. Naturally, after two years of a large-scale war, people are tired, disappointed, and have many problems.

However, the main problem is that the parliament was unable to quickly pass a law on mobilization. There will be several thousand amendments to the current bill, which was adopted in the first reading. After all, many deputies are simply afraid to vote for him and then go to their district.

There is a lack of mutual understanding between different politicians and branches of government. If the mobilization had been jointly announced by Zelensky and Zaluzhny, I believe, there would have been a completely different effect. But the president's office decided that they will try to shift the political responsibility to anyone, except Zelensky himself. Although according to Ukrainian law, the mobilization is announced by the head of state.

— How worried are Ukraine about the possible election of Donald Trump in the United States? In your opinion, the threat that Washington will change its policy of supporting Ukraine, even under Trump, is not really real?

- It is still too early to say. We are waiting for the decision of the US Supreme Court on whether Trump will participate in the elections in individual states. Trump, on the one hand, does tend to act like a populist. But, on the other hand, I don't believe that he really can and wants to stop aid to Ukraine or Israel.

- The elections in November are relatively far away, and the decision on aid is made by the US Congress. How realistic is it to get this help this year, and how badly does Ukraine need it?

— Ukraine is in great need of this help. But it will be difficult to get the declared volumes - about 60 billion. On the other hand, both Republicans and Democrats are interested in the success of Ukraine.

- How, in your opinion, can one actually explain the hysteria that Alexander Lukashenko has been inciting recently, declaring that Belarus is going to be attacked, various operations are being conducted against it, and so on?

- I guess, first of all, Lukashenka is trying to draw attention to the parliamentary elections on February 25, to create controlled panic in society. And I think that Russia will try to completely subordinate the Belarusian military machine and reorient it to actions against NATO countries.

After all, it will be quite difficult to objectively send Belarusian troops against Ukraine. Lukashenka's numerous statements that he will never go to war against Ukraine, in this case, play against the interests of the Kremlin.

- But two years ago, it was from the territory of Belarus that Russian troops went to Kyiv.

- This was possible when there were tens of thousands of Russian soldiers on the territory of Belarus. And Ukraine was not ready, Zelensky was told, but he did not believe that an attack from the territory of Belarus was possible.

- That is, Kiev believes that Lukashenka is to some extent an independent player, or that he has become a complete vassal of Russia?

- No, he has no independence and never had. But he has an understanding that if he gives everything to Russia, then it will not need him, and the Kremlin will "dispose" of him. And put an even more pro-Russian person in his place. Some say that there is no more pro-Russian, but I am convinced that there is. And he will not have the obligations and the political history that Lukashenka has.

- So what explains this military rhetoric of Lukashenka? Does he know that Russia is preparing for a big war?

- I don't think that Lukashenka really wants war. He would like to win, but preferably without war. And he has a serious problem - how to give weapons to people who have no respect and loyalty to him.

• Vitaly Tsygankov

  Vitaly Tsygankov graduated from the Faculty of Journalism of BSU. One of the two founders of the first non-governmental news agency BelaPAN. He worked in "Zvyazda" newspapers, was a correspondent in Belarus of the Russian "Nezavisimaya Gazeta", Associated Press, columnist in "Svaboda" newspaper. On Belarusian Freedom since 1994. Correspondent of Russian Freedom in Belarus.

  
  

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