The Russian Federation will be able to maintain the intensity of artillery fire with its own ammunition and ammunition provided by North Korea in 2024. However, this intensity will be much lower than in 2022.

This is stated in the report of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The head of the Intelligence Center of the Estonian Defense Forces, Colonel Ants Kiviselg, said that the Russian Federation has about four million artillery shells left. Their occupying forces will have enough to wage a "low-intensity" war for another year.

According to Kiviselga, there have been reports that North Korea has sent up to 300,500 containers to Russia, each containing between 300 and 500 pieces of artillery ammunition. Thus, according to the expert, Pyongyang may have provided Russia with 10,<> to <>,<> pieces of ammunition, which may last up to one month at the current daily rate of use of about <>,<> shells per day.

ISW analysts note that Western sources and satellite images confirm that North Korean supplies probably consist mainly of artillery shells. Supplies have risen sharply since Russian and North Korean authorities began more formal military-technical cooperation in September.

"Based on Western assessments of Russian artillery production capacity and the continuation of North Korean artillery exports, Russia is likely to be able to maintain a generally sufficient intensity of shelling for the foreseeable future," the Institute's experts emphasize.

While a general decrease in the intensity of fire may limit the ability of Russian forces to conduct large-scale offensive operations, in their opinion, the occupiers are unlikely to face large-scale shortages that would significantly undermine defensive operations, and reducing the intensity of fire will not give Ukrainian forces an advantage.

"The extent to which international partners support Ukraine's ability to maintain effective firepower against Russian forces will be a key factor determining the appropriate capabilities in 2024," the ISW emphasizes.

As reported, the DPRK made a cynical statement about the supply of ATACMS missiles to Ukraine. Pyongyang said that any strike on Russia with their help would allegedly only hinder peace efforts.

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