These media estimates are consistent with what was reported by those familiar with the negotiation papers and experts concerned with the Palestinian issue, in separate conversations with “Sky News Arabia”, with their talk about a strong American “desire” to use pressure papers for the first time and “pressure” from the mediators in Egypt and Qatar “for fear of an explosion.” “The situation in the region” if the situation continues as it is during the holy month.

The first truce was previously reached between Hamas and Israel for a week from November 24 to December 1, during which a ceasefire was held, prisoners were exchanged, and relief aid was brought in.

Last January, a meeting was held in Paris with the participation of mediators Egypt, Qatar, and the United States with both sides of the war that began on October 7, with the aim of reaching an agreement on a second truce deal, before the same meeting was renewed on February 23.

Last February 24, Cairo News Channel in Egypt talked about a meeting that began in Doha regarding the negotiations and will be followed by a related meeting in Cairo, which will take place tomorrow, Sunday, according to the same channel, quoting a high-level source.

“Discussions to reach a truce in the Gaza Strip will resume in Cairo on Sunday, with the participation of all parties, amid persistent efforts to reach a truce agreement before the month of Ramadan, with notable progress and efforts to achieve a fair agreement,” according to the same source.

The Cairo meeting will be “important” in bringing the viewpoints of the negotiating parties closer together, with the presence of a Hamas delegation confirmed and its response to Cairo regarding the movement’s vision for the truce agreement, according to the sources that Sky News Arabia spoke with.

The Israeli delegation is clinging to a list of conditions from Netanyahu, in which he sets a red line regarding the release of the names of some prisoners, and another proposal to exclude other names of the prisoners who will be released, according to Sky News Arabia sources.

Guarantees that the war will not be renewed after the truce, the completion of the prisoner exchange, the gradual withdrawal of the Israeli army, and the flow of aid to Gaza will be at the forefront of Sunday’s negotiations in Cairo.

On February 27, a senior official close to the temporary truce talks in Gaza told Reuters.

  • The Hamas movement received a proposal from the Paris II meeting allowing for an initial cessation of about 40 days (6 weeks) in all military operations.

  • The commitment includes allowing 500 aid trucks into Gaza daily and providing thousands of tents.

  • It allows the repair of bakeries and hospitals in the Gaza Strip.

  • It provides for the exchange of Palestinian prisoners and Israeli detainees in a ratio of 10 to one.

Deal settlement updates

On Saturday, the Israeli Walla website quoted an American official as saying that Israel had agreed to the terms of the proposed exchange deal to begin an immediate ceasefire, and the ball was now in Hamas’ court to agree to it.

Meanwhile, a source close to the Hamas movement told Agence France-Presse that a leading delegation from the Hamas movement is heading to Cairo this evening, Saturday, to hold new talks regarding a truce in the Gaza Strip, and to deliver the movement’s official response to the new Paris proposal.

There is talk of a six-week truce during which Hamas will release 42 Israeli women and children under the age of 18, in addition to the sick and elderly, at a rate of one hostage per day in exchange for the release of ten Palestinian detainees from Israeli prisons.

Hamas demands an increase in the number of aid trucks entering the Gaza Strip.

Meanwhile, two Egyptian security sources told Reuters on Saturday that “the parties agreed on the duration of the truce in Gaza and the release of hostages and detainees,” explaining that completing the deal “still requires agreement on the withdrawal of Israeli forces from northern Gaza and the return of its residents.”

Serious indicators

Jihad Al-Harazin, the Palestinian expert, professor of political systems and leader of the Fatah movement, reviewed with “Sky News Arabia” indicators that indicate the possibility of reaching an agreement before Ramadan by saying:

  • I believe that there are many indicators that indicate that calm will soon be reached, especially with the transfer of the delegations of the parties that were in Doha to Cairo to resume negotiations.

  • There is pressure being exerted by mediators from Egypt, Qatar, and the United States, who all see the necessity of reaching calm before the advent of Ramadan, given its sacred status. Any option other than calm may threaten to detonate the situation in the entire region.

  • There are a set of restrictions that the Israeli delegation is putting forward during the current negotiations, adhering to Netanyahu’s vision in refusing to put forward a set of names of prisoners for absolute release.

    He proposed the process of deporting the names of other prisoners scheduled to be released in the expected deal.

  • Also, the issues of the Israeli army’s withdrawal from the Gaza Strip still require a set of solutions and a convergence of viewpoints.

  • The US administration wants to reach calm as soon as possible, because US President Joe Biden is affected electorally before the presidential race next November by the repercussions of the Israeli war due to the increasing possibility that the Arab and Islamic communities and those in solidarity with Palestine will abstain from voting for him.

American pressure for the first time

This American desire was translated by Washington through pressures used for the first time, according to the Palestinian expert, Abdul Mahdi Mutawa, Executive Director of the Middle East Forum for Strategic Studies and National Security, in his conversation with “Sky News Arabia”, as follows:

  • The American administration is pressing with all its might to reach a truce agreement during Ramadan that will gradually include discussing the stages of the end of the war, and Netanyahu does not want that.

  • The pressures of the American administration have risen loudly and now the pressure is more intense across two issues: firstly: armament, which will force Israel to sign not to use it against civilians, and the second issue is the visit of a member of the Israeli war government, Benny Gantz, to the United States.

  • Gantz is Netanyahu's competitor and the most favored in all opinion polls. He is a government minister and travels without Netanyahu's permission. The latter expressed his dissatisfaction with this, and this is a form of pressure used by the American administration against him.

  • The American administration, with the Gantz card, gives a final message to Netanyahu: If you do not adhere to what we want, we will move inside and topple the government until early elections are held, and you will not be in power.

Mutawa sees all indicators in front of him pointing to the completion of a second deal:

  • I believe the deal is mature, and Hamas and the Palestinian people desperately need it because they no longer have the ability to endure, and Netanyahu wants it on conditions that do not show that he has submitted to any bias or concession, and he believes that more pressure on Hamas will be in his interest.

Regarding the most prominent items of the ongoing negotiations that Mutawa followed:

  • The Hamas movement agreed to come to the Cairo meeting to deliver the movement’s response to the Paris 2 framework proposal, and Netanyahu pre-empted this issue on the condition that there be a list of the names of living prisoners and their number to negotiate about.

Winning cards and crisis cards

Other details included in the second deal negotiations were discussed by Mukhtar Ghobashi, Vice President of the Arab Center for Political and Strategic Studies, in an interview with Sky News Arabia, saying:

  • Hamas wanted a truce of up to 135 days, divided into 45 days, then 45 days, then 45 days. The Israeli-American request was for 6 weeks, two weeks, then two weeks, then two weeks.

  • There was agreement to approve 6 weeks, but the crisis involved the Israeli exit from the Gaza Strip, the flow of aid, the beginning of hospital repairs, and before that, guarantees that Israel would not renew its fire.

  • Hamas has the prisoners' card, which is a winning card with which to impose its conditions, but Israel is procrastinating and does not want to give a pledge after completing the exchange deal not to renew the war, and therefore there is caution.

These details were included in current developments taking place in the negotiation papers, according to what Mukhtar Ghobashi, who reviewed previous negotiation papers, said: 

  • What is currently emerging is an American desire to reach a truce in any way under Arab pressure, especially from mediators, for fear of an explosion in the situation in the region, and to avoid the repercussions of the Gaza aid column massacre that Israel committed a few days ago.

  • The main substantive items raised in the discussions are the importance of having guarantees regarding the non-renewal of the ceasefire by Israel, the Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, and whether or not there will be freedom of movement of individuals from north to south. All of this is on the table.

  • There were other talks about an Israeli request that the resistance should provide a list of the number of living prisoners it also has.

  • There are high hopes for reaching a truce before the month of Ramadan, in which it is impossible to open fire due to its sanctity and the fear of an explosion in the situation in the entire region.

  • In addition, there are inflamed areas in the region waiting for the ceasefire in Gaza to calm down, such as: southern Lebanon and the Red Sea.

Ghobashi reads the Egyptian talk about the presence of “remarkable progress” in the Cairo meeting, which he considers “important”:

  • Egyptian talk about progress gives indications that we are on the verge of reaching a truce, and everyone is racing against time at this time.

  • The decisive Cairo meeting coincides with previous statements from US President Joe Biden about reaching a truce agreement on Monday, before he said that the matter is difficult after the aid massacre, but everyone is racing against time to complete it before the month of Ramadan.

  • The Egyptian talk comes with American distress that has begun to become public regarding Israel, and this is what may move us toward the goal faster.