The Russians have completely changed their strategy for 2023. And today it is based not on some "brilliant moves of military leaders", but on the superiority of human resources and unshakable tasks from the top leadership: "Not a step back!"
Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military and political observer for the Information Resistance group, wrote about this in his column on Obozrevatel.
"When the question of victory in the war against Russia is raised, many immediately note that only the complete liberation of the territories of Ukraine can be considered a victory. And that's right. But, at the same time, is the process of liberation of territories proof of approaching victory, and their loss on the contrary? It sounds paradoxical, but no, and now we are entering just such a paradoxical, at first glance, phase," Kovalenko said.
He compared two years of full-scale war in Ukraine.
War of 2022
He recalled that in 2022, the advance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the liberation of territories were an indicator of victories.
"The northern bridgehead, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kyiv regions, then a breakthrough in the Kharkiv region, forcing the Russians to flee from the right bank of the Kherson region. And against the backdrop of these victories, the average Ukrainian began to perceive victory as such, exclusively as territorial liberation and advancement," he explained.
War of 2023
In 2023, there were no liberations of territories that could be compared in area with the Kharkiv or the right bank of the Kherson region.
"This made it possible to create a distorted perception in society about the successes and failures of SOU in the DB area, with a preference for a depressive formulation – a failure," Kovalenko added.
According to him, in 2023, the Russians have completely changed their strategy, which is now based not on some ingenious moves of military leaders, technical or technological superiority, but on the dominance of human resources and tasks that cannot be argued with, from the top leadership: "Not a step back!" or "Offensive at any cost!"
"It is obvious that these two principles were derived from the current strategy of Valery Gerasimov (Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Federation – ed.) in Ukraine and almost completely copy the maniacal approach to warfare by General Zhukov. The Soviet butcher did not value human lives and achieved his goals thanks to these two principles, and Valery Gerasimov seems to be concerned about Zhukov's laurels and wants to try them on in every possible way," Kovalenko explained.
According to Kovalenko, if Russia has radically changed its approach to warfare in 2023, then Ukraine should reconsider it accordingly.
"Especially taking into account the fact that we are limited in technical capabilities due to the slowness and frank importance of our partners," he said.
The new phase of the war, according to the expert, will be a phase of rationalism and endurance, hence the weakening and exhaustion of the enemy to the stage when Ukraine has enough forces to deliver a crushing blow.
It should be added that the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Federation, Valery Gerasimov, about whom the military-political observer of the Information Resistance group Alexander Kovalenko wrote, is known for his maniacal approach to warfare.
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War agree with Kovalenko. They compared the actions of Gerasimov and the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, pointing out that the former makes the same mistakes and throws his soldiers into "meat assaults", while the latter draws conclusions from previous experience.
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