Since February 2022, it has been widely believed that the United States has provided Ukraine with enough military assistance to survive, but not enough to win.

Whether this is really so, the American edition of Newsweek figured out.

The United States is afraid of chaos in the Russian Federation

The publication suggests that this position of Washington is explained by the fact that the Kremlin's strategic defeat in Ukraine could provoke chaos in the Russian Federation, possibly the overthrow of Putin and a fierce regional struggle to fill the power vacuum littered with weapons of mass destruction.

"With China's challenge escalating, Eurasian anarchy will create many new challenges for the White House," the article writes.

"Ukrainians do see a constant indecision and concern about possible escalation and a reluctance to provoke the Russians," Daniel Vajditch, president of Yorktown Solutions and one of the most prominent Ukrainian lobbyists in Washington, told Newsweek.

According to him, Ukrainians believe that, despite all the help and support, the United States has no real desire for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to decisively defeat the Russians for fear that this will lead to internal turmoil and the collapse of Russia.

Defeat is always an orphan

U.S. and European officials have privately criticized Ukraine's approach to the counteroffensive. In particular, for the fact that Ukrainian forces are too stretched along the entire front line.

According to expert Vajdych, a significant part of the aid did not arrive in Ukraine as quickly as it could, which had a decisive impact on the situation on the ground.

"This year's spring offensive would have been a spring offensive, not a July offensive, which made a huge difference. After all, it allowed the Russians to gain a foothold and strengthen their defenses," Vaidych added.

In addition, Kyiv has to fight an uphill battle for each new NATO weapons system.

The first American-made main battle tanks arrived in Ukraine as of October, more than 18 months after the start of the war. Kyiv is still pushing for the farthest version of the army's MGM-140 tactical missile system, known as ATACMS, and the F-16 fighter jets won't arrive in Ukraine until early 2024 at the earliest.

Ukraine is waging a war for national survival, the authors of the article note. However, Biden and other Western leaders have made it clear that the Western coalition is responsible for the global survival of the world.

Therefore, the White House is in favor of gradually providing military assistance to Kyiv, because it thinks that this is not the way to provoke a world war.

"Ukrainians see themselves as our partners," Stephen Moore, former chief of staff to former GOP Chief Deputy Leader Pete Roskam and now runs the Ukraine Freedom Project in Kyiv, told Newsweek.

"We supply weapons, and they supply the lives of their best people. The Ukrainians are not getting the weapons we promised them, and they are not getting the weapons they need."

Some hope that the onset of winter and a relatively static front could facilitate new peace talks. Putin has repeatedly stated that he is open to resuming negotiations, but only on the condition that Ukraine accepts the "new territorial realities" of Moscow's occupation of about 20 percent of our territory.

Zelensky, in turn, refused to negotiate on Russian terms and denied the suggestion that the war had reached a stalemate.

"An unpopular peace proposal could mean the end of Zelenskiy's tenure with or without elections," Vajdić added.

Reassessment of the strategy towards Ukraine

The West understands that Ukraine cannot continue the war without their support, especially the United States.

"The winter and the failed summer offensive call for a comprehensive reassessment of the current strategy by both Ukraine and its partners," write Richard Haass and Charles Kupchan of the Council on Foreign Relations, a think tank.

"This broad public discussion is long overdue and necessary. In the past, such conversations were almost taboo. But this is a dangerous situation. That's how wars go on indefinitely. A good strategy is not only about what is desirable, but also about what is likely," Kupchan said.

Haass proposed an "intermediate definition of success" that suspends rather than abandons the goal of full territorial liberation.

"It may take years or even decades to reach a broader definition of success. We may have to wait for the emergence of a post-Putin leadership, or a post-post-Putin leadership," Haas says.

According to him, a complete liberation "is hardly possible given the military balance."

"We have already had two seasons of fighting. I don't see any reason to say that if there was a third, fourth, or fifth, Ukraine would have been able to achieve this goal. I think it's important for Ukraine to survive, for Russia to be disappointed. And I would call the current situation a strategic victory for Ukraine and the West. This is not all, but a lot," the expert added.

Were there any negotiations to end the war?

According to Kupchan, Washington believes that Zelensky is not ready to start returning to a strategy aimed at ending the war, so the West is not going to impose it.

"I assume that behind closed doors, options for ending the war are being discussed. But until there is a feeling that Ukrainians are ready for this conversation, I do not think that you will see it in the public sphere," the expert said.

In his opinion, there willbe no moment when Ukrainians themselves will begin to ask: "What should we do?"

Kupchan believes that Ukraine and the West should plan the "long game", as Putin does.

"You seek an end to the fighting, put Ukraine back on the path to prosperity, and then wait for Putin to leave and hope that the day will come when Russia at the negotiating table will return its territory to Ukraine."

He recalls that in 1985 no one believed that Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia would be independent democracies and members of NATO.

"Everyone is saying that Putin will wait out Ukraine and the West. I think we've turned the tables upside down. We will wait it out," the expert concluded.

Earlier, the commander of the Joint Forces, Lieutenant General Serhiy Nayev, warned that the war could again go beyond the east and south if Russia does not prevent it from producing weapons.

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