Lai Qingde announced the core list of the campaign headquarters on November 11, and former Taiwanese Culture Minister Zheng Lijun served as the convener of the policy advisory group, which means that if Lai Qingde is elected, Zheng Lijun will inevitably have a very important position in Lai Qingde's team.

This arrangement also means that Zheng Lijun can no longer participate in the general election as Lai Qingde's deputy, and the "*" in Lai's match will definitely belong to someone else. General analysis believes that Xiao Meiqin is Lai Qingde's favorite candidate for deputy.

From the perspective of Lai Qingde's political needs, Xiao Meiqin is indeed a more suitable candidate for deputy than Zheng Lijun. There are two reasons for this:

First, Xiao Meiqin and Tsai Ing-wen are best friends, and the relationship is closer than that between Zheng Lijun and Tsai Ing-wen.

In the 2020 DPP primary, Lai Qingde took advantage of Tsai Ing-wen's sluggish public opinion to challenge Tsai Ing-wen, resulting in a psychological estrangement between the two. This time, in the face of the possible threat of integrating "blue and white" in the opposition (note that it is only "possible"), although Lai Qingde has a greater chance of winning, he does not dare to take it lightly, and must integrate all the forces of the green camp in order to have a better chance of winning. And Tsai Ing-wen, because of her eight years in power, the British faction formed around her has become a trend, especially those forces in the green camp that are less mainstream than the new trend, most of them have been subdued by Tsai Ing-wen, which is the part that Lai Qingde needs to fight for.

Taiwan's Vice President Lai Ching-te (left) went to Citi Field in New York to watch the MLB New York Mets vs. Atlanta Warriors game on August 8, and tasted hot dogs and other delicacies at the stadium with Taiwan's representative to the United States, Hsiao Mei-qin (right). (Taiwan Presidential Office)

Second, Xiao Meiqin has a very good relationship with the United States, has very connections in the United States, and has won the new appointment of the United States, which is what Lai Qingde lacks, and can make up for Lai Qingde's shortcomings.

Lai Qingde's election on behalf of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) not only did Chinese mainland not like it, but the United States also beat a little drum in its heart. From the perspective of US interests and US-Taiwan relations, there is no doubt that the DPP will be more happy to see the DPP win than the KMT, which has more ties with the mainland, and the People's Party, which has had frequent communication with the mainland in recent years. However, because of his strong Taiwan independence overtones, the Americans are also a little furious about Lai Qingde, who calls himself a "pragmatic Taiwan independence worker," and they are worried that he will be difficult to restrain after he is elected, provoking the mainland to attack the killers and causing a big disaster.

The U.S. policy toward Taiwan is "use + containment", that is, using Taiwan to contain the mainland. Li Ao, a Taiwanese writer who has passed away, has a very vivid saying that Taiwan is China's testicle, and the United States wants to keep this testicle in its hands and pull it from time to time to contain China. If Taiwan independence goes violently and the mainland does not come to Taiwan, it will really provoke the mainland to be anxious, wield a knife, and endure the pain of breaking this containment, and the United States will lose this tool to contain China. Since the beginning of this year, the United States has repeatedly asked where it will take Taiwan if Lai Qingde is elected. Will it allow the two sides of the strait to ignite the flames of war and bring the United States into it?

Therefore, in order to dispel the concerns of the United States and gain the support of the United States, Lai Qingde not only repeatedly explained to the United States during the election, but also needed to find someone who could talk to the United States and the United States was also relieved after the election to make up for this shortcoming. Or to supervise him on behalf of the Americans. Xiao Meiqin does have quite an advantage in this regard.

Meiqin Siu was invited to speak at the 2021 Annual Meeting of the National Council of Congressional Exchange. (Twitter@ALEC)

However, under the circumstance that Lai Qingde is elected, Xiao Meiqin's appointment as a deputy is absolutely not a good thing for cross-strait relations. Lai Qingde is a "golden grandson of Taiwan independence" and a "pragmatic Taiwan independence worker," and this is already a risk to cross-strait relations.

And this Xiao Meiqin is even better. Xiao Meiqin is the first Taiwan independence diehard to be named twice by the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council and sanctioned. In August 2022, Xiao Meiqin and seven others were included in the list of "Taiwan independence" diehards by the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council for sanctions. In April 8, the spokesperson of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the CPC Central Committee was authorized to announce further sanctions against Xiao Meiqin.

Imagine, if a "Taiwan independence worker" and a sanctioned "Taiwan independence diehard" join hands to govern in Taiwan, what will it mean for cross-strait relations and the situation in the Taiwan Strait? What does it mean for U.S.-China relations?

Therefore, if Americans are wise, they should press the option of "Lai Xiao matching". If Taiwanese people don't want to live in fear, they shouldn't support Lai Xiao's option. Of course, this matter, Chinese mainland has said now, and the decision is in the hands of the United States and Taiwan.

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