Warm anomalies are likely to span entire continents, significantly increasing the possibility of terrestrial heat waves, droughts and wildfires. Photo: File/CD.
Researchers from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences predicted that in the period 2023-2024 the El Niño event will trigger several climate crises, a specialized journal published today.
According to a study cited by The Innovation Geoscience, this weather phenomenon, known for releasing massive heat into the atmosphere, is poised to change atmospheric circulation patterns, influence tropical-extratropical interactions, and impact subtropical jets, monsoons, and even polar vortices.
Experts warn that this will cause an increase in the global average surface temperature, which includes land and sea, one of the vital indicators of climate variability and global warming.
The ensemble prediction system, developed by the aforementioned institute, warned that there will be an El Niño event in the fall and that it could be maintained throughout the winter.
Based on historical climate data and previous studies, the team revealed the extent and potential consequences of the extreme warming expected in those two years.
Their findings indicate a 17% chance that the 2023 global average surface temperature will become the highest on record since 1950, and a staggering 61% chance that it will rank in the top three.
Meanwhile, in 2024 these probabilities will rise to 56% and 79%, respectively.
During the development of a strong El Niño in 2023, warm anomalies are expected to predominantly affect the tropical east-central Pacific, the Eurasian continent and Alaska.
Meanwhile, the following year warm anomalies are likely to cover entire continents, significantly increasing the possibility of terrestrial heat waves, droughts and wildfires.
(With information from Prensa Latina)