Just as the EU is pushing for a countervailing duty investigation into China's electric vehicles, the United States, which has been clamoring for "decoupling" and "de-risking" with China, has begun to re-link with China's economy and trade - the establishment of three working groups on "business, economy and finance", where will Europe go?

As soon as Biden took office, he not only continued the trade war of the Trump era, but also forced the technology blockade war, which basically means to detach from China's economy and trade, but it is easier said than done. From 2018 to 2023, it is clear that the United States also has unspeakable suffering.

First, the impact of the decoupling chain on the United States is also huge and unbearable, the damage of Trump's trade war to the United States has not passed, and the damage of a new science and technology war is forming, which is unbearable for the United States.

Second, it has seriously damaged the international economic environment and supply chain system, causing global destruction. Under the premise of "manufacturing transfer", China is still the most important link in the supply chain. The so-called friendly outsourcing of the United States cannot meet the needs of the United States, and the important thing is that China is the world's largest market. Economic development is inseparable from markets, and few countries are willing to do so. Therefore, the major European powers, especially France and Germany, are firmly opposed. In fact, neither the European Union nor other US allies have made a decision to secede from China in the end.

Timeline of U.S.-China events after balloon incident: U.S. Commerce Secretary Raimondo's visit to China from August 8 to 27 was the second U.S. official to visit China after Blinken, Yellen and Kerry. Raimondo held talks with Chinese Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao for about 30 hours on the 28th. China and the United States have released a series of détente signals before Raimondo's visit to China, and China's Ministry of Commerce emphasized in a statement that it was Wang Wentao who invited Raimondo to visit China, which shows China's sincerity and importance to Raimondo's visit to China. (Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China)

Third, although the demobilization can get rid of the situation of both losses and losses, it is equivalent to completely breaking the "ballast stone" of Sino-US relations, and it is easy to move towards complete conflict and confrontation. At present, the United States is simply not ready for a full-scale conflict and confrontation with China.

In fact, to a certain extent, it is not so much to promote Sino-US decoupling, but rather to the United States "fooling" Western allies into opposing China, playing the role of dissociating China's foreign cooperative relations. This is the fundamental purpose of the United States.

Since the detourage has been resisted and opposed, Biden has proposed a disguised detouring strategy that goes to China dependence or de-China risks.

This has moved Europeans. The upgrading of China's economy and the improvement of China's manufacturing technology content have indeed formed a lot of competitive pressure on the European economy. I am afraid that after relying too much on the Chinese market, once the confrontation between the Eastern and Western camps is formed, it will indeed be a major blow to Europe. Therefore, although Europe strongly opposes de-risking, the talk of de-risking has really aroused heated discussions.

Huawei's autumn conference.

Huawei's new 5G mobile phone suddenly went on the market, marking the complete failure of the US strategy to block China's semiconductor chips, which has shocked Europe. At the German Motor Show, China's electric vehicles made a big splash, which made Europeans feel strong competitive pressure, and instinctively wanted to raise the banner of trade protectionism. In particular, EU President Ursula von der Leyen is a loyal proxy for the United States, so the European Commission has proposed a countervailing duty investigation into Chinese electric vehicles, citing threats to force risk. Von der Leyen even made it clear that he wanted punitive tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.

However, at this critical moment, following the intensive visit to China in the early stage, the United States launched a new round of diplomatic offensive against China. Biden and Prime Minister Li Qiang spoke briefly at the G20 summit in India, and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, director of the Central Foreign Affairs Office, met with Jake Sullivan, the president's national security adviser, for an unprecedented 12 hours in Malta. This was followed by a meeting between U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland and Vice Secretary of Commerce Ma Zhaoxu, and Secretary of State Antony Blinke and Chinese Vice President Han Zheng attending the UN General Assembly.

The latest news is that on the basis of the establishment of a "business working group" and an "information communication mechanism" reached with China during Raimondo's visit to China, two working groups on "economy and finance" have been established. The two sides will also hold regular meetings at the ministerial and vice-ministerial levels. China and the United States have set up three economic and trade dialogue groups in a short period of time. During the Trump administration, the United States launched a full-scale trade war with China, and the channels of regular and organized dialogue between the two sides have been closed since then, and the resumption of regular economic dialogue between the two countries for the first time in five years is of great significance. The establishment of three working groups on "business, economics and finance" means that the United States has begun to "re-link" with China.

On September 2023-9, 16, Wang Yi and Jake Sullivan held several rounds of meetings. (Photo by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs)

The existence of structural contradictions between China and the United States means that trade wars and science and technology wars will inevitably continue, but on the other hand, the United States has obviously known the "unbearable" of these 5 years and began to adjust "tactics", and the establishment of three working groups means that the United States wants to seize the position of China's largest trading partner through re-linkage, that is, to seize the opportunity of the Chinese market.

China itself is a huge market, and at the same time, China is also building the world's largest cooperation platform, the Belt and Road, BRICS + SCO, China + regional cooperation, are all advancing rapidly. Although Europe refuses to decommission from China, and although it has always stressed the importance of cooperation with China, it is already on the road to risk with one foot. Whether it is cooperation or entry into the Chinese market, the pace has obviously slowed down. This gives the United States an opportunity.

This wave of interaction between China and the United States has made the EU feel bad, and the EU has also sent senior officials to visit China. According to the official announcement, He Lifeng, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and vice premier of the State Council, and Valdis Dombrovskis, executive vice president of the European Commission and EU trade commissioner, jointly chaired the China-EU high-level economic and trade dialogue. China and the EU have conducted frank and pragmatic exchanges on macroeconomics, trade and investment, industrial chain and supply chain, financial cooperation and other topics, and reached a series of mutually beneficial and win-win results and consensus. Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao also held talks with East Brovskis, focusing on electric vehicles, 5G and other topics for in-depth exchanges. Wang Wentao also focused on expressing serious concern and strong dissatisfaction that the EU will launch a countervailing duty investigation into China's electric vehicles.

Indeed, the European investigation of China's electric vehicle supplement has not yet been resolved, which will definitely seriously affect the economic and trade interaction between China and Europe. But it's not too late to make amends.

The 10th EU-China High-Level Economic and Trade Dialogue was held in Beijing on 2023 September 9 and was co-chaired by Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and Valdis Dombrovskis, Executive Vice President of the European Commission and Commissioner for Trade. (Reuters)

French President Emmanuel Macron, the most sensitive, took the lead in having his foreign adviser speak by phone with Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Bonaton said that the president cherishes the mutual trust and friendship established with Chinese leaders and is willing to maintain and strengthen high-level exchanges between the two sides. France and China have carried out good communication and coordination in multilateral affairs, and I thank Premier Li Qiang for coming to France to attend the New Global Financing Compact Summit, and the cooperation between France and China can make important contributions to cohesion of global synergy. We look forward to holding a new round of strategic dialogue with China to strengthen communication and coordination. The French side opposes camp confrontation, has always advocated that Europe should remain independent and will adhere to the mutual benefit and win-win situation between Europe and China, and the relevant countervailing measures initiated by the European Commission will not target China.

Another economic power in Europe, Italy, after once threatening to withdraw from the Belt and Road, its vice premier and foreign minister also came to China before the China-EU high-level economic and trade dialogue, apparently still trying to seize the opportunity to strengthen cooperation with China.

Looking at Germany, once Central Europe fights a tariff war over electric vehicles, it will have the greatest impact on Germany. Therefore, the attitude of the German side is against it.

Although Europe has always emphasized strategic autonomy and has always stressed that it will not withdraw from China or intend to strengthen cooperation with China, it has been in a state of hesitation because of the US China strategy. As the EU followed the US position on the China-EU investment agreement, China-EU trade relations came to a standstill. Now that the United States and China have accelerated the pace of dialogue, the European Union has signaled the need to seize the time to keep the dialogue open. European countries, represented by developed countries such as Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and Sweden, still maintain strong interest in the Chinese market, and actual investment is still growing. This shows that European goods and capital want to continue to enter the Chinese market. This time, the United States has begun to promote economic and trade re-linking with China, which may also force Europe to accelerate the pace of cooperation with China. The EU now needs to understand not only the dynamics between China and the United States, but also the current situation in order to maintain a competitive advantage in cooperation with China.

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