The other day, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that the aggressor country Russia would not consider proposals for negotiations that would include a ceasefire.
"If they want to resolve issues on the battlefield, then they will be on the battlefield," he said.
But on the battlefield, the occupiers did not achieve the desired effect, directly on the front line. Moreover, they suffered devastating losses in equipment and manpower.
The offensive ended in failure. The enemy was forced to switch to active defensive actions. However, they need to demonstrate at least some "victories" to their own population. In the form of "victorious" reports, there will be reports from the leadership of the occupation army about the delivery of another missile strike on the territory of Ukraine. For the occupiers, this is almost the only possible scenario for the continuation of the active nature of the war that can be sold to the domestic consumer.
Russian occupation forces will continue to intensify the frequency of missile attacks on Ukraine. For this, the enemy still has sufficient missile potential of various types.
They have both Iranian drones and cruise missiles in sufficient numbers. In support of this thesis, the New York Times cites an assessment from the British group Conflict Armament Research, dated November 2022. According to experts, the enemy used X-2022s manufactured in October 101 for missile attacks on Ukraine in November 2022. This means that already in November 2022, it became clear that Russia could continue to produce long-range cruise missiles, despite the entire complex of sanctions.
Russian Kh-101 missile / Photo: armyinform.com.ua
It is worth saying that since the beginning of May of this year, the Russian occupiers have significantly changed the nature and approach to missile attacks. Now they have a comprehensive approach to the issue of hitting their targets.
Russia is shelling Ukrainian cities from different directions and along different trajectories, trying to figure out gaps in defense and bypass Ukrainian air defense. First, there are massive drone attacks, and then combined attacks, using cruise and ballistic missiles.
At the same time, we are forced to use anti-aircraft missiles on Shaheds, which are much higher in cost than the price of drones. Given that the basis of our air defense is still the Soviet S-300 and BukM1 systems, we are forced to work with them, although there is a certain shortage of ammunition.
S-300 anti-aircraft missile system / Photo: wikipedia.org
In addition, the enemy uses Iranian drones at night, which reduces the effectiveness of using mobile groups to shoot them down. I do not rule out that, in addition to Soviet weapons, Western weapons are most likely also used.And the Russians are hunting for it, as they use reconnaissance drones that record the launch sites of our missiles, which they continue to work out with cruise and aeroballistic missile attacks.
According to British intelligence, the Russian Federation has begun to use reconnaissance unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) more often during its missile attacks deep into the territory of Ukraine. The point is that frequent long-range missile strikes deep into the territory of Ukraine are probably primarily aimed at weakening Ukrainian air defenses.
"Improving on previous waves of deep strikes, Russia has begun to use unarmed reconnaissance unmanned aerial vehicles in operations more often," the review says.
Indeed, the attacks are currently aimed at destroying the Ukrainian air defense system as much as possible. It is important for the enemy to deal a reputational blow to American air defense systems and prove the effectiveness of its weapons.
Modern IRIS-T air defense system / Photo: Getty Images
However, it is worth talking about striking the energy infrastructure on the eve of the heating season. The latest missile and drone strikes are actually the start of the autumn-winter campaign of massive missile attacks on Ukraine. The intensity of missile strikes by the Russian army using UAVs and cruise missiles of various types has increased by one and a half times over the past month.
There is little time left before the start of the heating season, the percentage of strikes will be even higher. The tactics of terror against civilians will continue, and the energy infrastructure will be the first to suffer.
The danger to Ukraine is posed by combined attacks using kamikaze drones. Before a missile attack, UAVs are launched from different directions at the same time to detect air defense systems. We are talking about the tactics of complex strikes, the so-called "star attack", using UAVs and various types of high-precision weapons – Kinzhals, Kalibrs, Iskanders and others.
Russian Kalibr missile / Photo: Associated Press
With strikes in recent days, the Russian Armed Forces have probed the concentration of air defense systems and how they work. Note that the Tu-95 is often fired with one missile, and is designed for eight. Thus, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation conduct training of combat crews, they are trained for further massive strikes.
Let me remind you that on September 18, the speaker of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Yuriy Ignat, said that during the night attack on Ukraine, the Russian Armed Forces lifted an unprecedented number of aircraft into the air.
On the morning of September 21, the Russian army launched a massive missile attack on Ukraine. According to the Air Force Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 43 missiles were fired by 10 Tu-95MS strategic aircraft. At approximately 06:00 a.m., Kharkiv was hit by S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles.
"The missiles were launched in several waves. They entered the airspace of Ukraine in different directions, constantly changing course," the Ukrainian military said.
The state-owned company Ukrenergo spoke about the consequences of the first massive enemy attack in six months. Rivne, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv regions were partially de-energized.
The intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Great Britain warned about the repetition of attacks by the Russian military on the Ukrainian energy system. According to British intelligence, Russia may accumulate large stockpiles of air-launched cruise missiles.
Russia resorts to massive missile attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure – thermal power plants, thermal power plants, transformers, distribution substations, etc. With such shelling, Russia is trying to persuade the leadership of Ukraine to negotiate and reach political agreements.
It should be noted that the Russian occupiers will be able to use high-precision Kh-47 Kinzhal missiles against Ukraine for a long time. At the same time, the enemy will use them in combination with other types of missile weapons and UAVs. The Kinzhal is a modification of the Iskander missiles for launching from aircraft, which entered the Russian army in 2017. Putin publicly announced it in 2018 during his address to the Federal Assembly.
MiG-31K aircraft with a Kinzhal missile on a suspension / Photo: kremlin.ru
The platform for the missile system is the MiG-31 long-range supersonic fighter-interceptor.The target engagement range is 2000 km. The biggest problem with countering such aircraft is that they do not launch missiles from Ukrainian airspace, and therefore it is impossible to shoot them down.
The command of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that the mass of the Kh-47M warhead is 500 kg, and the speed of the missile is more than 12 thousand km/h. The Kinzhal munition can be either conventional or nuclear. After launching from an aircraft, such a missile rises into the upper atmosphere and reaches maximum speed when approaching the target along a ballistic trajectory.
NATO's 2020 report on hypersonic weapons states that the Kinzhal should not be characterized as a hypersonic weapon, but the system was included in this list due to its ability to maneuver along its ballistic trajectory. And while the Kremlin claims that this missile can reach speeds of Mach 10, the NATO report states that its speed is likely to be much slower.
It is worth noting that British intelligence confirmed Russia's loss of several Kinzhal missiles in Ukraine, clarifying that these events were an embarrassment and surprise for the Russian Federation, which presented the missiles as "invincible".
Nevertheless, missile attacks by the enemy will continue. If we are talking about front-line cities, then the Russians use the S-300 there, of which they still have quite a lot. The enemy has up to 3000 missiles for this air defense system in stock, most of which, however, have served for more than 30 years, so they are in a substandard state. At the current rate of "shooting" of existing missiles for the S-300, the ruscists will have enough for years of war. Moreover, they will solve the problem of disposal of their missiles at the same time.
It is noteworthy that what the Russians call high-precision weapons are not actually high-precision weapons. According to experts, the error is large enough to hit specific objects and is at least 30 meters. Approximately, Russian missiles hit targets in half of the cases.
The second type of weapon I would like to focus on is the Iskander. These are operational-tactical missile systems. The Russians call it the main missile shield or the main response to NATO countries. Their first practical use from the territory of the Russian Federation was launches at the bases of the armed opposition in Syria. And on February 24, 2022, more than 60 launches took place on the territory of Ukraine.
Actually, the Iskander launch systems can use both cruise missiles and quasi-ballistic missiles, the range of which is up to 500 km. This makes it possible to use them in local conflicts, as is the case now.
Russian Iskander missile system / Photo: commons.wikimedia.org
How long will Russian missile attacks last?
The authors of The Insider state that before the war, the Russian Federation produced up to 225 ballistic and cruise missiles of all types per year – Kh-101 and Kh-32, for the Kalibr and Iskander complexes. The modern Russian Federation does not produce Kh-555 strategic missiles, and the production rate for tactical Kh-59 missiles is unknown.
I am forced to state that after the full-scale invasion of the Ukraine and the strengthening of economic sanctions, the aggressor has found workarounds and is importing electronics of American and European production through third countries.
According to the Ukrainian intelligence community, during the missile attack on Kryvyi Rih in May, the occupiers used missiles fired in April this year.
According to an investigation by RUSI and Reuters, by October 31, Russia had imported $2.6 billion worth of electronic components, of which at least $777 million was produced by Western firms featured in the report.
The authors of the report indicate that during the war, the Russian company Prosoft made 894 imports of products from Harting, Trimble, TE Connectivity, Texas Instruments and Infineon Technologies. Their logos were on the parts of downed Russian missiles.
▶ On the TSN YouTube channel, you can watch the video at this link: The West is arming Russia. Russian drones and missiles contain Western electronics! TSN Exclusive
According to Vladyslav Vlasiuk, adviser to the Office of the President, Ukraine is actively exchanging information about Western components found in Russian missiles. To stop Russian attacks, it is necessary to neutralize the production of such products used for military purposes. Sanctions require expanding the list of details, extending restrictions to third countries and greater control over compliance with the bans.
Therefore, reassuring and saying that they no longer have the opportunity is outright nonsense. Let me remind you that at one time, representatives of the Main Intelligence Directorate and the National Security and Defense Council repeatedly emphasized that "Russia has 2-3 missiles left for <>-<> large-scale attacks."
Yes, the Russian Federation has exhausted a significant stockpile of missile weapons, but, unfortunately, was able to establish their production.The latest missile attacks by the Russians have shown that they depend either on the general situation at the front, or on some of our achievements or steps in the international arena.
Russia will continue to terrorize Ukraine with missiles as long as it has enough resources, so it is important for Ukraine to continue to strengthen its air defense.
Ukraine has received new supplies of weapons and ammunition, including new air defense systems, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.
"There is reinforcement for our air defense system. It will be directed to where it is most needed now," he said.
To recap, Zaluzhnyi's former adviser from the United States predicted when ATACMS would be in Ukraine.
Author: D. Snegirev