(CNN Spanish) -- Colombia entered the final stretch of the race for the regional elections in which mayors, governors, councilors and departmental deputies will be elected. A midterm election that is a kind of referendum on the management of both elected officials in the 2022 general election, and that in turn can shape a new political landscape in the country.
One of the most followed contests in these elections are those of the mayors of the main cities of the country. Recent polls have pointed to candidates emerging as potential winners, although, as they always say in Colombia, the "big poll" to measure the power of political parties is on election day, this time, October 29.
This is the pulse for the mayors of the main cities, according to the most recent surveys published between August and September, from pollsters endorsed by the National Electoral Council of Colombia:
- This is the card of the candidates for Mayor of Bogotá
Polls on the Mayor's Office of Bogotá
It is perhaps one of the most important positions to be disputed this October 29, because it is the mayor of the capital of Colombia. This race is disputed by nine candidates of different ideologies who seek to succeed Mayor Claudia López, the first woman popularly elected to this position in 2019 and who ends her term on December 31, 2023.
In several polls published between the end of August and the beginning of September, the candidate of the New Liberalism, Carlos Fernando Galán (center-right), points as the favorite to be the next mayor of Bogotá. He is followed by Gustavo Bolívar, of the Pacto Histórico Bogotá movement (left) and Juan Daniel Oviedo of the Con toda por Bogotá movement (center-right).
The rest of the candidates have a voting intention of less than 10%, so, if these figures are confirmed in the ones, they would be out of competition for a second round, which would only take place in Bogotá from this year's elections. An eventual runoff is possible if a candidate does not get 40% of the vote and a 10% lead over his immediate competitor. The first two with the most votes go to the second round.
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This is what the surveys say:
Guarumo Survey and EcoAnalítica
Date: 9-13 September 2023
Commissioned by: own resources
Carlos Fernando Galán: 32.7%Gustavo Bolívar: 18.6%Juan Daniel Oviedo: 12.2%Diego Molano: 9.2%Rodrigo Lara: 8.7%Jorge Luis Vargas: 4.9%Jorge Enrique Robledo: 2.4%
The rest of the candidates do not exceed 1% in the intention to vote in this survey.
The survey was conducted among 1,000 people, over 18 years of age, in person in homes. The margin of error is +/- 3.1%.
Invamer Survey
Date: August 22-27, 2023
Commissioned by Noticias Caracol, Blu Radio and El Espectador.
Carlos Fernando Galán: 26.6%Gustavo Bolívar: 20.3%Juan Daniel Oviedo: 16.8%Diego Molano: 7.5%Rodrigo Lara: 7.4%Jorge Luis Vargas: 6%Jorge Enrique Robledo: 5%Nicolás Ramos: 1.2%Rafael Quintero: 0.6%
Blank vote: 8.5%
The survey was conducted in person in homes among 600 people over 18 years of age. The margin of error is +/- 5.09%.
TYSE Technology and Election Services Survey
Commissioned by: the pollster's own resources.
Date: between August 18 and September 1, 2023.
Voting intentions:
Undecided voters: 36.93%Gustavo Bolívar: 15.26%Blank vote: 15.14%Juan Daniel Oviedo: 12%Carlos Fernando Galán: 11.37%Diego Molano: 4.20%Rodrigo Lara: 2.70%
The other candidates have no more than 2% of the intention to vote in this telephone poll.
The sample size was 3,627 people for all municipalities. The margin of error is +/- 2.6%.
GAD3 Colombia Survey
Commissioned by: RCN Televisión
Date: between 1 and 7 September 2023.
Voting intentions:
Carlos Fernando Galán: 32.4%Juan Daniel Oviedo: 20.1%Gustavo Bolívar: 18.2%Rodrigo Lara: 8.8%Diego Molano: 8.5%Blank vote: 4.3%Jorge Enrique Robledo: 3.6%
The rest of the candidates have less than 2% in the intention to vote in this survey conducted by telephone to cell phone users.
The sample size was 2,021 people for all municipalities. The margin of error is +/- 5%.
Survey on the Mayor's Office of Medellín
In Medellín, the second most important city in Colombia, the intention to vote is very much focused on one candidate among 16 possible. This is Federico 'Fico' Gutiérrez, who last year competed in the first round of elections for the Presidency of Colombia, coming in third place after Gustavo Petro and Rodolfo Hernández.
Among 16 candidates, the polls show a very favorable trend towards Gutierrez and only one among the other candidates registers a vote intention higher than 10%.
Guarumo Survey and EcoAnalítica
Date: September 2023.
Commissioned by: Own resources.
Federico Gutierrez: 53.1%Juan Carlos Upegui: 11%Gilberto Tobón: 7.5%Albert Corredor: 5.1%Rodolfo Correa: 2.7%Blank vote: 8%Undecided: 6.3%
The rest of the candidates do not exceed 1.6% of voting intention in this survey.
The survey was conducted among 700 people in person in homes. The margin of error is +/- 3.7%.
National Consulting Center Survey
Commissioned by: Noticiero CM&
Date: September 18, 2023
Voting intentions:
Federico Gutierrez: 53%Juan Carlos Upegui: 11%Maria Paulina Aguinaga: 4%Albert Corridor: 3%Gilberto Tobon: 3%
The rest of the candidates do not exceed 2% of voting intention in this survey.
The survey was conducted among 548 people, over 18 years of age, by telephone and on the web. The margin of error is +/- 4.3%.
Invamer Survey
Date: August 22-27, 2023.
Commissioned by: Noticias Caracol, Blu Radio and El Espectador.
Federico Gutierrez: 63.3%Juan Carlos Upegui: 11.2%Albert Corredor: 6%Liliana Rendon: 2.8%Gilberto Tobon: 2.4%Luis Bernardo Velez:2.1%Blank vote: 4.7%
The rest of the candidates do not exceed 2% in this poll.
GAD3 Colombia Survey
Commissioned by: RCN Televisión
Date: Between 1 and 7 September 2023.
Federico Gutierrez: 66.6%Juan Carlos Upegui: 11.2%Juan Camilo Restrepo: 4.4%Albert Corredor: 4.1%Gilberto Tobón: 3.2%Maria Paulina Aguinaga: 2.2%Blank vote: 6.3%
The rest of the candidates do not exceed 1% of voting intention in this survey.
The sample size was 400 people. The margin of error is +/- 5 2.6%.
Polls on the Mayor's Office of Cali
In Cali, 13 candidates are vying for mayor, but in one of the polls consulted there is a politician who stands out with almost 30 percentage points of voting intention over his next opponent. Two other candidates have close scores, but do not reach 20% of the intention to vote. The rest does not exceed 10% of voting intention.
This is what the polls in Cali say:
Guarumo Survey and EcoAnalítica
Date: September 2023.
Commissioned by: own resources.
Voting intention
Roberto Ortiz: 22.8%Alejandro Eder: 17.4%Diana Rojas: 10.5%Danis Renteria: 8.1%Eder Arrieta: 3.3%Miyerlandi Torres: 3.2%
The rest of the candidates do not exceed 2% of voting intention in this survey.
The survey was conducted among 700 people in person in homes. The margin of error is +/- 3.7%.
National Consulting Center Survey
Commissioned by: Diario El País de Cali to measure only the candidates of that city.
Date: August 19-23, 2023.
Voting intentions:
Roberto Ortiz: 22.9%Alejandro Eder: 9.7%Miyerlandi Torres: 9.1%Diana Rojas: 6.8%Danis Renteria: 3.5%Javier Garcés: 3.4%Eder Arrieta: 2.3%Edilson Huérfamo: 2.1%
The rest of the candidates do not exceed 2% in voting intention in this survey.
Invamer Survey
Date: August 22-27, 2023.
Commissioned by: Noticias Caracol, Blu Radio and El Espectador.
Voting intentions:
Roberto Ortiz: 43.8%Alejandro Eder: 15.8%Diana Carolina Rojas: 10.7%Miyerlandi Torres: 7.7%Danis Renteria: 4.5%Wilson Ruiz: 3.4%Armando Aristizábal: 2.4%Blank vote: 7.2%
The rest of the candidates do not exceed 2% of voting intention in this survey.
The survey was conducted among 600 people. The margin of error is +/- 5.55%.
Local elections in Colombia are on October 29, 2023.
Colombia Elections