To successfully end the war, Ukraine needs to mobilize another 500 thousand Ukrainians into the army.
This opinion was expressed by the commander of the assault company of the Aidar battalion in 2014-2015, military analyst Yevhen Dykyi in an interview with Novynarnya.
Shortage in the Armed Forces
Dykyi is sure that the Kremlin can mobilize at least 200 thousand people in the near future. At the same time, the Russian army already has a numerical advantage over the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In turn, in some Ukrainian brigades, due to a shortage, a third of the personnel is missing.
How many Ukrainians need to be mobilized
The analyst recalled the thesis that the main advantage of Russians over Ukraine is numerical, because the amount of "cannon fodder" in the Russian Federation is huge. The Armed Forces of Ukraine could compensate for it with better logistics. But it depends on our allies.
"Taking into account logistics, and this is already a stone in the garden of the allies, this additionally means that, unfortunately, we have to compensate for the lack of equipment, aviation, etc., precisely our only advantage - manpower. This is a scary reality. We could have fought with fewer people if we had other technical support. But the allies give what they give, and we haven't lifted a finger for 8 years to do something ourselves," Dykyi said.
In his opinion, Ukraine needs to successfully carry out more than one wave of mobilization and put at least half a million people into service.
"In terms of the number of personnel at the front, we do not even have parity. And there are things that can be solved exclusively with the help of personnel," the expert explained.
At the same time, Dykyi believes that if Ukraine mobilized a million people now, the war could be ended next year.
The high price of victory
"If we fail (to oppose something to mobilization in the Russian Federation), we will lose the war. In this case, it is possible that the defeat will even be deserved to some extent. We live in a harsh reality. No country will enter the war on our side. And it's good that we are given at least logistics. No one in the world prevented us from preparing for the Great War for all 8 years.
If we are not ready to pay the price that is necessary to win, then we will not have victory. And the question is whether we will pay the full price to win, or whether it turns out that we are not ready to pay this price, and it turns out that at some point there were simply not enough Ukrainians ready to fight at some point," Dykyi said.
Earlier, military expert, reserve colonel Petro Chernyk explained whether a situation could arise when all men would be drafted into the army.
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