The drills are taking place in the strategic Grodno region bordering Poland and Lithuania, where the exercise area is located near the Sualki corridor separating Belarusia and Russia's Kaliningrad.

Belarus's Defense Ministry said the drills were based on experience and expertise from the "special military operation," referring to the war in Ukraine.

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Academic and political researcher Dr. Roland Begamov told Radar:

  • Such exercises take place normally in the region, but this time they have been highlighted by Wagner's presence in the region.
  • The size of the maneuvers is small and can be considered a deterrent move.
  • Both sides are not ready for war or military conflict.
  • These maneuvers should not be feared and everything is under control.
  • There is a significant amplification of the Wagner issue, the group's tasks are known.
  • The training ground in Belarus is well known and the exercises often take place in the same place.
  • NATO knows very well that Russia does not want to open a new arena for fighting.

Polish Senate Foreign Affairs Adviser Marcin Zaborowski said:

  • I don't think the goal of these exercises is deterrence, Poland does not pose a threat to Belarus and Russia.
  • Belarus and Russia have previously indicated that they want to escalate.
  • These maneuvers may come in the context of psychological warfare.
  • There are American soldiers in Poland, and penetrating the country means that they will be confronted by America and this will lead to escalation.
  • Before the start of the Ukrainian war, Putin repeatedly said that he had no intention of attacking Ukraine, Russia does not keep its promises and cannot trust what it says.