What does Putin propose for the Wagner group after the confusing operation? 3:15

(CNN) –– The Kremlin has gone to great lengths to reassert President Vladimir Putin's authority, with meetings and events aimed at showing the unity and solidarity of the state and military under his leadership.

But, in the view of many commentators, it will not be easy to draw a line that will cancel out the unusual events of the weekend, and questions will remain about the performance, will and even loyalty of some Russian units.

• Putin has "definitely" weakened following Wagner group rebellion in Russia, Biden says

While the Russian military leadership was conspicuously absent as the crisis unfolded, it was Chechen units that prepared to engage Wagner Group troops strutting through the streets of Rostov-on-Don, and other Chechen units were filmed guarding a bridge at the southern approaches to Moscow.

This has not gone unnoticed by the Russian military blogging community, especially in light of unconfirmed reports that Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu had abruptly left the Rostov-on-Don area on Friday, when mutiny began to erupt in the region. Some Russian military bloggers with significant followings expect a serious reshuffle of the army after the Wagner uprising, and perhaps within the security services because they did not see the preparations that led to the insurrection.

• OPINION | The rebellion of the Wagner group is not comparable to the events in Moscow in 1991

A popular blogger by the name of Rybar wrote Wednesday that a purge of middle managers who had refused to fire on Wagner's columns if civilians could be wounded was already underway.

"For several days, investigators and representatives of the FSB (Federal Protection Service) have been working both on the top of the military command and control bodies and on the commanders of the units," Rybar said.

advertising

Putin has sought to reassert his authority after the Prigozhin mutiny. Credit: AP

He also suggested that while Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov remains formally in charge of what Russia calls the "special military operation" in Ukraine, the commander of the airborne forces (VDV), Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky, is the one who is actually directing the war.

Teplinsky's subordinates hold him in high regard, according to observers, but the VDV suffered heavy losses in the initial phase of the invasion.

There is no way to verify Rybar's claims, but their dissemination may demonstrate a level of apprehension in the Russian military in light of the mutiny.

Another well-known blogger, Boris Rozhin, wrote that "one of the positive aspects of June 24 may be that the authorities are cleared of disloyal and unstable staff."

• ANALYSIS | Putin struggles to reassert his control in Russia after the Wagner group insurrection

Doubts about Surovikin

Speculation persists about the role of other top brass when the mutiny got underway overnight from Friday to Saturday.

The New York Times reported Wednesday, citing U.S. officials it said had been briefed by U.S. intelligence, that Russian air force commander Gen. Sergey Surovikin "had prior knowledge of Yevgeny Prigozhin's plans to rebel against the Russian military leadership."

Asked about the information in a regular call with reporters, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: "Now there will be a lot of speculation and rumors around these events. I think this is just another example of that."

Some observers believe U.S. officials have a motive to try to discredit Surovikin, whose campaign performance has eclipsed that of most commanders. Mark Galeotti of Mayak Intelligence said: "Surovikin is not a nice man, but he is a dangerously competent general."

While acknowledging that he is speculating, Galeotti added: "To suggest complicity with Prigozhin's betrayal, to use Putin's words, would seem like a good way to help derail his return."

• ANALYSIS | How might Wagner's insurrection affect the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Macha?

Others think Surovikin is too smart to back a mutiny that clearly had no chance of success.

A keen observer of the machinations within the Russian establishment, Tatiana Stayonova, tweeted Wednesday: "The mutiny lacked clear political objectives or adequate preparation. It looked like a desperate attempt by Prigozhin to protect Wagner, with a potentially fatal end in Moscow. While Surovikin was able to sympathize with the plan or be aware of it, he sided with the state when necessary."

Rob Lee of the Foreign Policy Research Institute notes that Surovikin is the commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces and that "Wagner shot down 7 or more aircraft, including several that were unarmed. Strange thing if the commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces actively supports you."

Indeed, Surovikin made a video appeal to Prigozhin to cease the mutiny shortly after it began, one of the few military voices heard over the weekend.

The purge may extend beyond the Army. State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin demanded an analysis of who tried to leave Russia over the weekend.

"We all condemn those who, at a difficult time for the country, abandoned it, fled. That really should be punishable, among other things," Volodin said.

Anastasia Kashevarova, a military journalist who has covered the conflict, underscored the issue. "Don't run away and abandon your citizens and your country. Don't run away and keep silent, and then ask for rewards for yourself," he wrote on Telegram.

Putin held meetings in the Kremlin on Tuesday. Credit: Mikhail Tereshchenko/Sputnik/AFP/Getty Images/FILE

Divisions in the Army

Any institution as vast as the Russian Army is going to have rivalries and grudges, especially in the midst of a war in which so many shortcomings have been revealed.

As Stayonava puts it: "At the beginning of the Prigozhin mutiny, an established split between the Shoigu/Gerasimov military leadership and Surovikin was well known, not so much a power struggle as a divergence in understanding of Russia's strategy in Ukraine."

On several occasions, Surovikin appeared to attempt to maintain a working relationship with Prigozhin, whose fighters, after all, were taking most of the damage in the assault on Bakhmut.

At one point, according to Russian military bloggers, Surovikin interceded to try to get ammunition for Wagner.

"This relationship was probably approved by Putin, which suggests that this split was not a rebellion," Stayonava says.

Tolerance and support for Wagner within the army (and among some regional governors) was to some extent a codified way of expressing lack of confidence in Shoigu and Gerasimov.

• Yevgeny Prigozhin, Wagner's boss, is in Belarus after armed rebellion, says Lukashenko

Now that dynamic has changed dramatically, according to Stayonava.

"The question remains whether those reporting to Putin these days could tarnish the image of those sympathizers, transforming them into conspirators for the purpose of possible purges against them."

For now, at least, the seemingly resilient Shoigu has survived and appeared in a video released after the weekend at the Western Military District's combat headquarters (though the visit may have been last week), as well as sitting two places from the president in a meeting Monday night.

Marginal future for Putin's former chef

As for Yevgeny Prigozhin, the day he was master of ceremonies at a summit between Putin and President George W. Bush in St. Petersburg must seem like a lifetime ago. His former promoter has now stressed that no effort will be spared to end his extravagant career.

Putin declared on Tuesday that Prigozhin's business empire had received more than $2 billion from the Russian state last year, which had "fully financed" Operation Wagner.

He noted that "the owner of the Concord company" had received the equivalent of $936 million for delivering and serving food to the Russian military, before adding in a threatening tone: "I hope no one stole anything or stole as little as possible in the course of these operations, but we will thoroughly investigate all that."

The implication is that, while Wagner's fighters have been pardoned and many will join the Russian army, Prigozhin will be a pariah, barely earning a retirement in Minsk in neighboring Belarus. He may never be accused of armed rebellion, but his lucrative model of waging war is about to unravel.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said Tuesday that the effort to distinguish between Prigozhin and his fighters may prompt the Kremlin to "accuse Prigozhin of corruption or of conspiring with Ukraine or the West and alienating Prigozhin from Wagner's staff" that the Kremlin wants to keep on its side.

"The Kremlin needs to separate Prigozhin's cause from his person, lest an attack on Prigozhin be perceived as an attack by the Kremlin on its popular narrative and its stated goals of punishing the criminal and incompetent leadership of the Russian Defense Ministry," the ISW says.

In Russian military circles there is still considerable respect for what Wagner has brought to the Ukraine conflict.

As things settle down, some wonder how the dispute between Prigozhin and the Ministry of Defense was allowed to escalate to the point of mutiny.

Among them is the director of the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia), Viktor Zolotov.
Although he claimed that the mutiny was prepared by Western intelligence services, he also said that there were indications, what he called "dissemination of information," coming from Prigozhin's side "that this mutiny was being prepared."

"All Rosgvardia personnel, the entire unit of the force worked brilliantly: clearly, consistently and competently," Zolotov said, perhaps in an unstated contrast to the Defense Ministry.

Blogger Boris Rozhin said on his Telegram channel: "If the conflict between Prigozhin and the top of the Defense Ministry had been stopped in time, the rebellion would hardly have taken place."

Anastasia Kashevarova, who has 269,000 subscribers on Telegram, also asked: "If we knew, why don't we prepare? If [Prigozhin] works for the Ukrainians, why were they (Wagner's forces) pardoned? Why did they quietly go through border controls? Why wasn't it prevented?"

Rozhin, like others on the defensive, is doing his best to turn the events of June 24 and 25 around as a catharsis, saying the main achievement is that Russia "didn't start figuring out who is stronger and who can kill whom more. We have a real enemy, on whom efforts must be directed."
Others might argue that there are no guarantees of that yet.

Wagner Group