Erdogan wins in Turkey: setback for NATO, reinforcement for Putin? 3:34

(CNN) -- NATO officials are in a race against time to avoid the embarrassment of seeing the alliance fail to meet its own stated goal of admitting Sweden by July 11.

Both Sweden and neighboring Finland declared their intention to join NATO through its open-door policy in May last year, just weeks after Russia launched its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. Finland was finally accepted in April this year, doubling the alliance's border with Russia, but Sweden's accession is currently blocked.

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It is generally accepted that the Swedish armed forces are compatible with NATO. Sweden has a permanent delegation to NATO and is considered a close partner of the alliance, meaning that accession should be relatively straightforward.

So why can't Sweden join?

The problem is Turkey, a strategically important NATO member due to its geographical location in both the Middle East and Europe, and the alliance's second military power, which blocks Sweden's accession for several reasons.

The most important is that Sweden claims that Sweden allows members of recognized Kurdish terrorist groups, in particular the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), to operate on its territory. Sweden amended its anti-terrorism laws earlier this year, making it a crime to be part of these groups, although it is not yet clear whether this is enough for Ankara.

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Turkey also claims that Sweden's government has been complicit in far-right protests in which copies of the Koran were burned outside the Turkish embassy in Stockholm. More recently, Turkey has said it wants Sweden to act after Swedish lawmakers on Sunday projected the PKK flag on Stockholm's parliament building in protest at the re-election of Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

A spokesman for the Swedish parliament acknowledged that images had been projected on the side of the building, but had no concrete evidence of what had been projected or who was responsible, according to Reuters.

Turkey, a strategic member of NATO due to its geographical location both in the Near East and in Europe and the second military power of the Alliance, blocks Sweden's accession. Credit: Christine Olsson/TT News Agency/AFP/Getty Images

Finally, there is concern about Erdogan's willingness to describe himself as Putin's friend. Shortly before he was re-elected, he told CNN that he and Putin share a "special relationship."

NATO officials and people in Sweden's government are now beginning to worry that missing a July 11 deadline, the date of their next official summit in the Lithuanian capital, Vilnius, would send a dangerous message to the alliance's adversaries. Among them are Russia and, although not close to the North Atlantic, North Korea and China.

"If you fail, you tell people like Putin that there is a weak link in the Western alliance. It gives them time and space to cause trouble," a NATO diplomat told CNN. "That could be anything from cyberattacks to funding and encouraging more Koran burnings to cause division in Sweden."

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An Eastern European diplomat told CNN that in addition to "emboldening the enemies" of NATO, any delay risks "giving Erdogan's sense of power over the alliance." The diplomat added that "Erdogan will seize the moment to squeeze every last drop out of this situation and throw the ball to Sweden, making it hostage to its (own) anti-terrorism laws."

Officials in most NATO states are optimistic about reaching a deal before July, but are aware that could come at a price.

Multiple officials point to how Erdogan struck a deal with the European Union in which the European Union gave Turkey 6 billion euros ($000.6 billion), among other perks, in exchange for Turkey taking in Syrian refugees heading to Europe. European officials have repeatedly claimed that Erdogan knew he had Brussels in a bind, as he could "flood" Europe with refugees at will.

Pending agreement

What could NATO allies give Erdogan to change his mind about Sweden?

For starters, Turkey wants the U.S. Congress to approve its purchase of U.S.-made F-16 fighters. While U.S. officials are reluctant to openly link the Swedish issue and the F-16s, officials say behind the scenes it's obvious there's a deal to be done.

Diplomats are also aware that the Turkish economy is in dire straits, with runaway inflation and a plunge in the value of its currency against the dollar, and that both the United States and the European Union have imposed sanctions on the country.

While there is room for agreement, and Sweden's pro-accession allies have leverage, there are a couple of issues that could see July 11 arrive without NATO getting what it wants.

The first is Erdogan's unpredictability. Sunday's election was the closest it has come to losing power in 20 years, which allies fear could redouble pressure on Sweden over its counterterrorism policy.

Sweden is unlikely to introduce anything that looks as authoritarian as Erdogan would probably like, especially when it comes to the Kurds; at this point, the only resolution might be for Erdogan to accept the changes Sweden has already introduced to its anti-terrorism laws as a personal victory and move on.

The second is that Turkey is not the only fly in the soup: Hungary also opposes Sweden's entry into NATO.

In a way, these two issues are connected: If Erdogan considers Sweden's anti-terrorism laws to be enough just for Hungary to block the whole thing, he risks appearing weak compared to his Hungarian counterpart, European officials fear.

Both Sweden and Finland declared their intention to join NATO in May last year, just weeks after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine. Credit: Yves Herman/Reuters

For their part, pro-Sweden allies, including the United States and Britain, arguably NATO's two most influential members, are redoubling their efforts ahead of July 11 and privately offering Sweden assurances that it is their priority, no matter what Turkey does.

Sweden's entry into NATO would be the latest in a long line of good news for the alliance since Russia invaded Ukraine. Officials have been surprised by the level of unity in the alliance since the war began and have welcomed renewed promises on defense spending and strengthening the alliance.

Russia launched its war in the first place in part because of NATO expansion, a move that shows no signs of slowing down, with Ukraine now also wanting to join the alliance. Even the Japanese are moving closer to NATO, and the country's foreign minister told CNN earlier this month that they are in talks to open NATO's first liaison office in Asia.

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Despite all that has been said about what French President Emmanuel Macron called NATO's "brain death" not too long ago, it is undeniable that the alliance has a renewed sense of purpose and confidence in its future. That is precisely why officials are so concerned about Turkey's veto of Sweden's accession in NATO's own calendar.

Just as a chain is only as strong as its weakest link, an alliance is as united as its last act of unity. In the modern world of diplomacy, signals and subtext are of enormous importance. And although it may seem insignificant the exact moment when Sweden joins NATO or not, the fact that Turkey gives the enemies of the alliance the slightest hint that members can be eliminated would mean, in the opinion of those responsible, to undo months of good work that have brought the alliance closer than at any other time in recent times.

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