Hong Kong think tanks have developed slowly, but in the eyes of the country, think tank advice is crucial to policymaking. Under the big country game, the external environment is grim, the internal recovery is slow, and the national expectations for the market are relatively conservative, and they are waiting for more positive investment signals. How should the country continue to promote reforms, and how should it respond to economic transformation in order to emerge from the global economic growth dilemma? In the face of the confrontation between Europe and the United States, how can the country reshape the international environment through emerging industries, and how can it promote international cooperation in accordance with the "Belt and Road" initiative, so as to form a new development pattern of a community with a shared future for mankind? In the process of Chinese-style modernization, what role can the layout of urban agglomerations, including the "Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area", play, and how can new development paths be explored? The "chip war" is about to break out, how should enterprises optimize the layout of productivity to help the high-level development of new industrialization? As one of the "national high-end think tanks", China (Shenzhen) Comprehensive Development Research Institute held a forum on "High-level Openness and High-quality Development in the New Era" last Saturday (May 5), inviting a number of heavyweight experts to contribute their ideas.
The China (Shenzhen) Comprehensive Development Research Institute held a forum on high-level opening up and high-quality development in the new era last Saturday (May 5), inviting a number of heavyweight experts to provide suggestions for national development on four major topics: high-level opening up and high-quality development, great power game and China's high-level opening-up, urban agglomeration development and Chinese-style modernization, and new industrialization and innovation-driven development. (Photo by Huang Yunna)
The China (Shenzhen) Comprehensive Development Research Institute held a forum on "High-level Opening Up and High-quality Development in the New Era" last Saturday (May 5), inviting a number of heavyweight experts, including Fan Gang, vice president of the CPC Economic System Reform Research Association, who had held a "discussion in the economic and social field" with President Xi Jinping, Li Gang, former vice president of the Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China, Tang Jie, former vice mayor of Shenzhen, Xu Lin, former director of the Planning Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, Ni Feng, director of the Institute of American Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Ma Chaojiang, deputy director of the Smart City Development Center of the State Information Center, and others made suggestions for national development around four major topics: high-level opening up and high-quality development, great power game and China's high-level opening-up, urban agglomeration development and Chinese-style modernization, and new industrialization and innovation-driven development.
Ye Xiaowen, Chairman of the China (Shenzhen) Comprehensive Development Research Institute and Deputy Director of the Culture, History and Learning Committee of the 13th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, pointed out in his speech that the world is currently facing a severe situation of high inflation, low growth and rising unilateral protectionism, and the foundation for comprehensive domestic economic recovery is not yet solid; Therefore, he suggested that the state implement a more proactive opening strategy, adhere to the combination of "bringing in" and "going out", coordinate domestic and international markets and resources, maintain stable, transparent and predictable policies on foreign investment, foreign trade, foreign investment and exchange, deepen the "Belt and Road" cooperation, increase "free trade experiment" innovation, and actively participate in global economic governance and the supply of public goods, so as to open up a new path to promote high-quality development with high-level opening up, and accelerate the construction of a domestic cycle as the main body. The new development pattern of domestic and international dual circulation promoting each other.
Despite the continued downturn in the global economy, China's economy is still resilient, and it is believed that recovery is just around the corner, especially if the country currently has new growth points such as new energy vehicles, digital economy, and urban agglomerations, and it is expected to achieve a growth rate of 5% or even higher this year. (Xinhua News Agency)
Topic 1: High-level opening up and high-quality development
Fan Gang, President of China (Shenzhen) Comprehensive Development Research Institute, Fu Mengzi, Vice President of China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, and Zhu Haibin, Chief Economist of J.P. Morgan China, gave speeches on topics such as how China's economy can break through in the global competitive landscape and how to cope with multiple challenges of economic transformation, and exchanged views on whether Chinese university graduates have fallen into structural unemployment.
Fan Gang himself is a well-known economist who was invited to attend a symposium of experts in the economic and social fields convened by Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee and President of the People's Republic of China, in his personal capacity in August 2020 to express his views on the 8th Five-Year Plan. In this dialogue on "High-level Openness and High-quality Development", Fan Gang first spoke on the theme of "Problems and Countermeasures Facing China's Economy". He said that despite the continued downturn in the global economy, China's economy is still resilient and believes that recovery is just around the corner, especially if the country currently has new growth points such as new energy vehicles, digital economy, and urban agglomerations, and is expected to achieve a growth rate of 5% or even higher this year. However, he also pointed out the current unfavorable factors, including serious lack of demand, faster supply recovery than demand recovery, downward pressure on export demand, industrial chain transfer and the dilemma of "technological containment". Fan Gang put forward three major countermeasures in this regard: first, give full play to the role of large enterprises and expand investment in private enterprises; The second is to accelerate the development of urban agglomerations, correct the deviation of urbanization strategy, and achieve the next stage of urbanization consumption growth through large urban agglomerations; Finally, increase the issuance of long-term public bonds to solve the problems of "term mismatch" and "functional mismatch" faced by urban investment bonds.
Fu Mengzi is an expert in international relations subsidized by the State Council, has served as vice president of the China Society of International Economic Relations, and is the author of "New Theory of Sino-US Strategic Relations", "World Changes", "The Sustainability of the "Belt and Road" Construction" and other works. He said that in the face of the unprecedented changes in a century, the world can never go back to the past, because the strategic confrontation of Western countries led by the United States will not stop, and the Asia-Pacific situation will continue to be tense due to geopolitical disputes, but "globalization" will not die, but will unfold at a higher level, forming a new type of globalization with high quality, new economy, selectivity and peripheralization; Therefore, the country will face a more severe external environment, which will make it more necessary to promote the openness, shaping and innovation of economic development. He explained that China has become a part of the international environment and is an important force in shaping the international environment - it is necessary to pay attention to the construction of a soft environment biased towards the field of institutions and rules, and improve the overall investment environment; It is also necessary to pay full attention to the coopetition relationship with surrounding areas, adjust the industrial chain, predict the risks of building a chain and supplementing the chain, and better coordinate the country's development and security issues.
Fan Gang (top left), Fu Mengzi (top right), Zhu Haibin (bottom left) and Zhu Wenhui (bottom right) gave speeches on how China's economy can break through in the global competitive landscape and how to cope with the multiple challenges of economic transformation against the current international background of weak global economic growth and continuous trade frictions, and exchanged views on whether Chinese university graduates have fallen into structural unemployment.
Zhu Haibin has won international academic paper awards for his research in real estate and finance, and in 2016, as a representative of the economics community, he was invited to advise the then Premier Li Qiang on the Government Work Report (Draft for Comments). Regarding the country's economic recovery this year, he cited a large number of data to point out that the current recovery performance is uneven, and private investment expectations have not improved much for the time being, but he is still optimistic about the prospects. The main reason for optimism is based on a series of policy adjustments that occurred at the end of last year, including the gradual opening of epidemic prevention and anti-epidemic measures, pragmatic correction of key industries, and the advance of fiscal and monetary policies. He believes that private investment and real estate will be the two major sectors with important influence, and recommends that government policies be consistent, because for private entrepreneurs, in addition to macroeconomic policy adjustment of macroeconomic fundamentals, more importantly, a more stable policy environment, once the policy swings excessively, it may cause confusion in private expectations.
Zhu Wenhui, a former advisor to the Central Policy Group of the HKSAR Government, was the moderator of the high-level dialogue. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics in the middle of the month (May 5) showed that the unemployment rate for young people aged 16 to 16 reached a record high of 24.20%. In this regard, Zhu Wenhui asked the three experts, how should they understand the relevant phenomenon?
Fan Gang responded that economics has the concept of so-called "frictional unemployment", which refers to the unemployment situation that occurs when people give up their original occupations and look for new jobs, and it is often used to describe the temporary unemployment situation in which young people are more willing to spend more time seeking satisfying jobs because they have higher expectations for the future. He believes that the national education structure attaches more importance to higher education and less to vocational education, which will inevitably lead to a tilt in the talent structure, but the current high unemployment rate also reflects the problem of insufficient market demand and inability to cover their ideal jobs, which is a necessary friction in the process of social transformation and requires experts from all parties to find a way out. Zhu Haibin said that on the whole, the problem of youth unemployment is a false proposition, because the number of retirees every year is much larger than the number of people entering the labor market, and it is reasonable to say that there should not be a problem of high youth unemployment.
Zhu Haibin cited a large number of data to point out that the current recovery performance is uneven, and private investment expectations have not improved much for the time being, but I believe that the property market is expected to enter a recovery. (Photo by Huang Yunna)
Topic 2: The game of great powers and China's high-level opening-up
Qu Jian, an expert appointed by the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China and vice president of China (Shenzhen) Comprehensive Development Research Institute, presided over the meeting. Li Gang, vice president of the China Society of International Trade, Ni Feng, director of the Institute of American Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and Cui Hongjian, director of the Institute of European Studies of the China Institute of International Studies, took this as the basic background to share how the country can enhance economic innovation, strengthen international cooperation, and build a new development bureau.
Li Gang was the vice president of the Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce. He mentioned that in the face of China's rise, the United States continues to influence value trade through values diplomacy, resulting in the delay in resolving the Sino-US trade war; However, he believes that as long as the two sides can communicate rationally and exercise moderate control, a way of coexistence can still be explored. In this context, he believes that China's modernization is inseparable from a high level of opening up, and the country should further improve the quality of opening up and implement a higher level of trade and investment freedom. He put forward four major suggestions: first, continue to play our comparative advantages on the track of traditional advantageous industries, because our industries are complete and our infrastructure is sound; Second, gain new competitive advantages in new tracks such as the digital economy and green trade; Third, demonstrate the new advantages of cooperation of "consultation, co-construction and sharing" through the joint construction of the "Belt and Road"; Fourth, in the course of opening up and development, we should earnestly safeguard economic security and take into account both development and security issues.
Li Gang (top left), Ni Feng (top right), Cui Hongjian (bottom left) and Qu Jian (bottom right) share how the country is enhancing economic innovation, strengthening international cooperation, and building a new development bureau against the backdrop of the U.S.-China game.
Since 1992, Ni Feng, who specializes in international relations, has worked at the Institute of American Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. From "researcher" to "director of the institute", he has published more than ten books, including "Congress and Post-Cold War US Security Policy", "Ideology and US Foreign Policy", "American Blue Book", etc., witnessing profound changes in Sino-US relations, especially since Republican Trump came to power in 2017. He analyzed that the US comprehensive competition strategy towards China mainly revolves around four clues, such as gradual decoupling in the economic field, geopolitical strategic containment, activation of the national security system, and ideological international mobilization, and China's ultra-large and resilient market volume and high degree of connection with more than 140 economies in the world will be an effective point for us to deal with Sino-US strategic competition. He also reminded that although the United States emphasizes competition with China, the Biden administration also attaches importance to risk control and hopes to maintain Sino-US competition within a controllable range, but from the current risk control perspective, the "guardrail" of Sino-US relations has not yet been established.
Cui Hongjian has long been engaged in Chinese diplomatic research, having worked at the Chinese Embassy in Jamaica and the Consulate General in Mumbai, and is quite familiar with European affairs. He mentioned that China's growth has led to great changes in the pattern of world interests, especially the competitive pressure from China's economy, which will be the most important variable leading to the next stage of the big power game; At present, the West's relationship with China, dominated by the United States, is dynamic, full of cooperation, and at the same time competitive, and has the characteristics of long-term, complex and asymmetric games, resulting in fragmentation of the original rules. He also believes that China must maintain a high level of openness and foreign cooperation in order to continue to achieve our economic growth; The only way to do this is to expand the extension of China's power, expand its economic influence and comprehensive strength to the international system, and seek institutional power, rather than relying on going it alone.
Although the United States emphasizes competition with China, the Biden administration also attaches importance to risk control and hopes to maintain Sino-US competition within a controllable range, but from the current risk control perspective, the guardrail of Sino-US relations has not yet been established. (Xinhua News Agency)
Topic 3: Urban agglomeration development and Chinese-style modernization
Li Jinkui, senior researcher of China (Shenzhen) Comprehensive Development Research Institute, led this discussion. He has been researching fiscal taxation, tourism planning and urban management for a long time, and has presided over urban strategy consulting projects such as "Shenzhen 2030 Development Strategy - Urban Function Evolution and Land Management", and won the "China Urban Construction Outstanding Person Award". In this session, four experts, including Tang Jie, former Vice Mayor of Shenzhen, Xu Lin, former Director of the Planning Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, Xiao Jincheng, former Director of the Institute of Land Development and Regional Economy of the National Development and Reform Commission, and Liu Guohong, Vice President of China (Shenzhen) Comprehensive Development Research Institute, focused on the importance of promoting the development of urban agglomerations to support the high-quality development of China's economy, and the effective way to develop major city agglomerations such as the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area as a higher-level open economy and innovative country.
Tang Jie himself is a worker of a metallurgical construction company, returned to the university campus after the reform and opening up for further study, until 1993 to obtain a doctorate in economics, to 1998 to join the Shenzhen municipal government, and from 2009 to 2015 as the vice mayor of Shenzhen, he has made indelible contributions to Shenzhen's take-off; After stepping down, he focused on academic research and education, and served as a professor at the School of Economics and Management of Harbin Institute of Technology (Shenzhen), a professor at Peking University HSBC Business School, and a council member of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen. In this dialogue, he shared an empirical comparative study on the balanced development of urban agglomerations in the Yangtze River Delta and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, pointing out that promoting the deepening of division of labor and cooperation among cities according to their comparative advantages, and driving the growth of urban agglomerations with larger and more efficient industrial clusters, is an effective way to narrow the development differences within urban agglomerations. Taking the balanced development of urban agglomerations in the Yangtze River Delta and the Greater Bay Area as an example, he explained that local governments should give full play to the basic role of market mechanisms, devote themselves to supporting the development of industrial chains, and implement more extensive cross-city cooperative industrial and scientific and technological innovation cooperation, which is conducive to improving the spatial inefficiency of over-dense and over-sparse coexistence between cities in China, and deepening the new spatial development pattern of industrial spatial balance and scientific and technological agglomeration innovation.
Tang Jie shared the empirical comparative study of "Balanced Development of City Agglomerations in the Yangtze River Delta and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area", pointing out that promoting the deepening of division of labor and cooperation among cities according to their comparative advantages, and driving the growth of urban agglomerations with larger and more efficient industrial clusters, is an effective way to narrow the development differences within urban agglomerations. (Photo by Huang Yunna)
Xu Lin, chairman of Sino-US Green Investment Management Co., Ltd., also has a great background. He has served as Director General of the Department of Finance and Finance, Director of the Department of Development Planning, and Director of the National Center for Urban and Small Town Reform and Development of the National Development and Reform Commission, and participated in a number of five-year plans, urbanization plans, regional development plans, major industrial policies, and financial reform plans on China's economic and social development, and drafted the Report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and the 13th Five-Year Plan. He delivered a speech entitled "The Functions and Roles of Urban Agglomerations and Core Cities in the Regional Economic Pattern", during which he shared his experience of working with leaders such as Jiang Zemin, Liu He, and Wang Yang, and also brought out the hard-won development of urbanization today. He said that the future space of China's economy will inevitably be dominated by urban agglomerations, and will take industrial chains, entrepreneurial chains and industrial innovation cooperation as internal neural networks, and what is most needed at present is the institutional support of market allocation of resources and free flow of factors, because once there is a lack of free flow of factors and people, the development of urban agglomerations will be interfered by various administrative or non-market means. He stressed that with institutional support, it is possible to form a high-quality development pattern with efficient division of labor within urban agglomerations, mutual support, and coordinated development of large, medium, and small towns.
Xiao Jincheng is a researcher at the China Academy of Macroeconomic Research, a doctoral supervisor at the Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and has won the honors of "China's Top Ten Land Economic Figures", "China's Urbanization Contributors", and "National Excellent Scientific and Technological Worker". He believes that in order for China's urban agglomeration to play a role in radiating and driving the role, it is necessary to achieve coordinated regional development. Because China's administrative regions are top-down, vertically managed, very efficient, but there are also drawbacks, that is, horizontal division, if the flow of factors is not smooth, it will affect the development of the national unified market. Therefore, economic zones of different scales should be established to run parallel with administrative regions to form a two-wheel drive management system; Urban agglomerations and metropolitan areas belong to economic zones, and through institutional innovation, we can explore the establishment of cooperation mechanisms between urban agglomerations and metropolitan areas to improve the driving force of surrounding areas.
Four experts, including Tang Jie (top left), Xu Lin (top right), Xiao Jincheng (bottom left) and Liu Guohong (bottom right), focused on the importance of promoting the development of urban agglomerations to support China's high-quality economic development, and the effective way to develop major city agglomerations such as the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area as a higher-level open economy and innovative country.
Liu Guohong, who specializes in industrial policy and financial research, published "Some Enlightenments on the Evolution of Shenzhen's Economic Space". He introduced that although Shenzhen is a belt group city, it presents a "center-periphery" economic structure, and the population density is also decreasing. From the experience of Shenzhen's development law, he believes that the construction of metropolitan areas and urban agglomerations should be done in accordance with economic laws, and earnestly implement the regional integrated development strategy required by the Party Central Committee, support the innovation and exploration of various regions, and support the independent layout of various enterprises. Taking the evolution of Shenzhen's economic space as an example, it is the functions of each administrative region of Shenzhen that perform their respective duties, making Shenzhen's economic development stable and orderly. He also reminded that in the future, the construction of metropolitan areas and urban agglomerations cannot be spread out or spread out pies, but it is necessary to find the correct development positioning, cultivate "economic density" (that is, improve everyone's labor productivity, such as from one person creating 1,1 GDP to one person creating 1,10 GDP), release economies of scale and scope economy, and make enterprises and industries with high-tech content and high development quality stand out.
In the construction of urban agglomerations, the coordination of different cities is indispensable, but each city has its own characteristics, and cooperation will inevitably have some trade-offs. Some audience members asked, how should the problem of different systems or mechanisms be solved? Xu Lin admits that the construction of urban agglomerations at this stage does face different degrees of difficulties, after all, the state appoints local leaders based on administrative boundaries, but he believes that even if competition is inevitable, at least the basic rules for competition should be drawn to avoid waste of resources.
In the construction of urban agglomerations, the coordination of different cities is indispensable, but each city has its own characteristics, and cooperation will inevitably have some trade-offs. The picture shows the Lok Ma Chau Loop, which will be developed into a Hong Kong-Shenzhen Innovation and Technology Park. (Photo by Liang Pengwei)
Topic 4: New industrialization and innovation-driven development
Ma Chaojiang, Director of the Informatization Development Policy Division of the State Information Center, Cao Zhongxiong, Director of the Institute of Digital Strategy and Economy of China (Shenzhen) Comprehensive Development Research Institute, Li Xiaobai, Chairman of Shenzhen Mifetek Technology Co., Ltd., and Zheng Zhibin, Deputy Chief Manager of Pengcheng National Shooting Range of Pengcheng Laboratory, respectively, shared their contributions to effectively promoting new industrialization and the coordinated development of various new high-end factors from the aspects of strengthening the core competitiveness of industry, enhancing the status of the industrial chain, optimizing the layout of enterprise productivity, and effectively promoting the coordinated development of the real economy and various new high-end factors. A feasible path to promote the development of higher quality manufacturing industry.
Ma Chaojiang is also the deputy director of the Smart City Development Research Center of the State Information Center, and brought a speech with high technical content to the conference. He said that the deep integration of the digital economy and the real economy is not only an inevitable requirement for making the digital economy stronger, better and bigger, but also an inevitable requirement for taking the road of new industrialization; In the next stage, the key task of promoting the integration of data and reality lies in the release of the value of data elements. Among them, the data infrastructure system must be systematically promoted, which will be reflected in five major aspects, including: improving the overall work system and mechanism, promoting institutional refinement and practical standards and specifications, optimizing the technical system, ensuring digital governance and services, and building a multi-level and diversified data element market ecosystem.
Cao Zhongxiong has long followed the development of leading digital economy enterprises such as Tencent, Alibaba, Didi, and Lexin, and has in-depth research on hot issues in the digital economy at the national, provincial and municipal levels, and has unique insights into the innovation and development of the digital economy. He believes that at present, we should focus on building an "innovation ecological community" to deal with issues such as global industrial chain supply chain security and innovation, because the country is facing a fragmented global innovation industry chain supply chain system, and unprecedented security challenges such as "alliance neck" and "invisible neck" are coming head-on; At the same time, the country is also in the explosion period of innovation, in the process of "integrated manufacturing" gradually transformed into "full-chain manufacturing", "imitation innovation" also to "source innovation" and "industrial innovation". Therefore, in the future, it is necessary to build an innovation ecological community, and deal with the problems of scientific research and industrial innovation, R&D and process innovation, unified market and innovation, and international and domestic dual-cycle innovation.
Ma Chaojiang (top left), Cao Zhongxiong (top right), Li Xiaobai (bottom left) and Zheng Zhibin (bottom right) share their feasible paths for effectively promoting new industrialization and promoting the higher-quality development of the manufacturing industry from the aspects of strengthening the core competitiveness of the industry, enhancing the status of the industrial chain, optimizing the layout of enterprise productivity, and effectively promoting the coordinated development of the real economy and various new high-end factors.
Li Xiaobai is an industrialist in the chip packaging and testing industry. He said that chips are the eternal driving force for the development of human social science and technology economy, and the current chip industry has a much larger industrial pull ratio than other industries, which can promote economic development to a large extent. He compared the per capita GDP rankings of Wuxi in Jiangsu, Hsinchu in Taiwan and Silicon Valley in the United States in the country and region, pointing out that the wealth agglomeration effect of the three most semiconductor cities is very obvious. In the face of the "chip ban" of the United States against China, he believes that China should adhere to reform and opening up, adhere to globalization, give full play to its existing advantages, adhere to flexible and pragmatic talent strategies, promote independent innovation and compliance development, make friends in international exchanges and cooperation, and focus on global layout.
Zheng Zhibin was Vice President of the Strategy Department of Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd. and an expert of the "China Cloud" Task Force of the Ministry of Science and Technology. He said that only by embracing artificial intelligence and big data can China truly become a manufacturing powerhouse; At present, the country has entered the stage of industry-led industrial digitalization, seeking a new management and service model through the deep integration of traditional industries and digital technology, and creating a higher value industrial form; At the same time, digital transformation with data fusion applications as the core has realized the opening of siloed information and integrated applications through digital platforms. He hopes that in the future, enterprises will embrace digital technology innovation to innovate traditional products, so as to shape new business value, and give full play to the value of data to achieve business model innovation.