Many say it was predictable. But never before in more than 20 years has Erdogan's position been so shaky. Because if this were not the case, there would be no second round.

First, having won the election, Erdogan's main enemy has not disappeared. This is the Turkish economy. Remaining a supporter of low interest rates, the depreciation of the lira reached almost 100%. And it is an open question whether Erdogan will undertake tough economic reforms.

Second, Erdogan will have to overcome the insane polarization of society. Even judging by the results of the second round of presidential elections, the policy of his rule is not supported by almost half of the voters. Perhaps that is why on Sunday evening, May 28, already celebrating the victory, Erdogan called for unity and unity.

Third, it is naïve to think that Erdogan will play democracy. Turkey will continue to drift towards autocracies with a strong presidential vertical, which will appeal to countries like Russia.

In this article TSN. ua will tell what Ukraine and the world should expect from the third decade of Recep Tayyip Erdogan's rule

Russia's influence and Ukraine's position: what Kyiv should prepare for

"Putin won elections in Turkey". This is the headline of a Newsweek article about the results of the second round of the presidential election. And one could say that it is somewhat tabloid and not true, but there are some interesting points here.

On the one hand, according to the results of the first round of the presidential election, the third candidate Sinan Ogan, who scored 5.17% of the vote, in the second round called for support for Erdogan. Ogan's biography is in the public domain. He is fluent in Russian and studied at MGIMO. In addition, we can recall Kemal Kilicdaroglu's rather harsh tweet addressed to Moscow, when he accused Russia of interfering in the elections.

On the other hand, Putin was the first to congratulate Erdogan on his re-election for a third five-year term, emphasizing the construction of the Akkuyu nuclear power plant (the first unit has already been commissioned), which is under full control of Rosatom, and the creation of a gas hub in Turkey. US President Joe Biden also congratulated Erdogan, expressing hope on Twitter for continued joint work in NATO on bilateral issues and common global problems.

It's no secret that Turkey helps Russia circumvent sanctions by becoming a kind of hub for dual-import schemes, through which Russia receives components for the production of the very missiles with which it then kills Ukrainians. Ankara has not joined the anti-Russian sanctions. Moreover, on the eve of the second round of elections, in an interview with CNN, Erdogan described it as an achievement, accusing the United States and the West of wanting to overthrow him from the presidency:

"We are not at the stage when we would impose sanctions against Russia, as the West did. We are not bound by Western sanctions. We are a strong state and have positive relations with Russia. Russia and Turkey need each other in all possible spheres."

Volodymyr Zelenskyy also congratulated Recep Tayyip Erdogan on his re-election. In this situation, Ukraine needs to understand that temporary economic benefits and interests in Turkish politics will prevail over the long-term strategy. That is, Erdogan will continue to help Russia circumvent sanctions, earning fabulous money on this. And the implementation of the gas hub project in Turkey is nothing more than the recently buried German scheme, when Russia will sell its gas to Turkey for pennies, and the latter will resell it, earning on margin. However, it should be noted that the creation of such a gas hub is still very far away, and a separate big question is who will pay for the construction of this gas "holiday".

Experts emphasize that military assistance to Ukraine from Turkey will continue, as well as military-technical cooperation. TSN.ua already wrote that these are new fighter drones Bayraktar Kızılelma (with a Ukrainian engine), and the first corvette built by the Turks Ukrainian "Hetman Ivan Mazepa". However, on the other hand, Turkey's further drift towards a more autocratic model of government may give Erdogan arguments to pressure Ukraine to start negotiations with Russia and a ceasefire. That is, freezing the war, which will give Russia time to regroup, recuperate and deliver an even more powerful blow to Ukraine.

Erdogan can also be pushed to this by the involvement of Russia and its Syrian protégé Bashar al-Assad in solving the problem of the banned in the country "Kurdistan Workers' Party" and the Kurdish "People's Protection Units" (YPG). If this does not happen, experts predict that perhaps Erdogan will decide on another major military operation against the YPG, because one of Erdogan's main election promises was to return Syrian refugees home.

All this may affect the negotiations on the next extension of the grain agreement, which de facto has been blocked for several months. Many in Ukraine mistakenly believe that Erdogan has considerable influence on Putin on this issue. However, another massive Russian shelling on the night of Monday, May 29, when the enemy targeted the port infrastructure of Odesa region, leaves a lot of questions, as well as the artificial blocking of ships with Ukrainian grain by Russian inspections, and who really controls the Black Sea.

In addition, TSN.ua also wrote that Russia has put forward its list of requirements for the full extension of the grain deal. The most dangerous is the resumption of the operation of the Togliatti-Odesa ammonia pipeline, which is, in fact, a veiled demand for a ceasefire, given the explosiveness of ammonia.

Economic catastrophe: who is Erdogan's main enemy

Supporters of Recep Tayyip Erdogan celebrated his re-election until late Sunday night, May 28. When he spoke from the balcony of his palace in Ankara, Erdogan met 320,6 people. crowd. He said his government's top priorities would be fighting inflation and healing the wounds of the catastrophic Feb. 50 earthquake that killed more than <>,<> people. lives in Turkey and neighboring Syria. And Erdogan said the following phrase: We will be together not until Sunday, but until death.

Again, Erdogan's biggest enemy, apart from his increasingly autocratic methods of government, remains an extremely difficult economic situation. Western analysts strongly advise the Turkish government to move away from its favorite policy of low interest rates, which provokes the depreciation of the national currency, and seek help from Western lenders to return foreign investment in the country and stop the outflow of labor.

However, this is unlikely to happen. In his victory speech, Erdogan again criticized the opposition, calling it LGBT supporters. In numerous Western media reports from Turkey, ordinary Turks, especially women, point to the huge growing problems with basic freedoms and Turkey's movement towards Islamism, which is Erdogan's own political force "Justice and Development Party".

Almost all reports of the Western press from Turkey about Erdogan's victory in the second round of the presidential election point out the problem of huge polarization of society. Megacities such as Istanbul did not vote for Erdogan. Recall that in 2019 in Ankara and Istanbul, Erdogan's party lost mayoral posts in favor of the opposition. Many experts complain that if the opposition had nominated one of the mayors of Istanbul or Ankara as a candidate in these presidential elections, and not Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who did not enjoy either the favor of the opposition itself or the youth, the result could have been different.

Instead, Recep Tayyip Erdogan concentrated on his electorate in the regions, which suffered greatly from the economic crisis in Turkey and almost 100% depreciation of the lira. However, on the one hand, the paradox is that Erdogan's supporters do not directly link this to the mistakes and miscalculations of his government. On the other hand, Erdogan during the election campaign resorted to outright populism, promising people free gas and higher wages. And all this will again be financed from the state budget, for which voters will pay tens of billions of dollars. And, again, it is an open question to which countries or financial donors the Erdogan government will turn for help.