Is Turkey ready for a change of president? 2:47

(CNN) -- Turkey's leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan will face opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu in the second round of the presidential election on Sunday.

Before the first round everything seemed set for a close contest, with Erdogan facing unprecedented pressure after 20 years in power.

However, Erdogan defied expectations and only narrowly lost the outright victory in the first round.

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The vote took place nearly four months after the Feb. 6 earthquake killed more than 50,000 people and displaced more than 5.9 million in southern Turkey and northern Syria. It also came amid a severe economic crisis and what analysts say is a democratic erosion under Erdogan's rule.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Kemal Kilicdaroglu. Getty Images

Here's what you need to know about the second round:

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How do elections work in Turkey?

Turkey holds elections every five years. Presidential candidates can be nominated by parties that have passed the threshold of 5% of voters in the last parliamentary elections, or those that have gathered at least 100,000 signatures supporting their candidacy.

The candidate who obtains more than 50% of the votes in the first round is elected president, but if no candidate obtains the majority of votes, the election moves to a second round between the two candidates who obtained the highest number of votes in the first round.

Voter turnout in the first round on May 14 was nearly 90% according to the Supreme Election Council (YSK), but no candidate won an absolute majority, leading to a runoff.

Erdogan received 49.52% of the vote in the first round, giving him a five-point lead over Kilicdaroglu. His bloc won a comfortable majority in the legislature in a parallel parliamentary vote.

The second round will be held this Sunday. Polls open at 8:00 a.m. local time (1 a.m. ET) and close at 5 p.m. (10 a.m. ET). Results are expected after 9 p.m. (2 p.m. ET) local time.

Who are the contenders?

The two candidates with the highest number of votes, Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu, are running.

The longest-serving Turkish leader since the modern Turkish republic was established, Erdogan has been in power for two decades, first as the country's prime minister and then as president.

The 69-year-old, who began his rule with widespread religious freedoms and an economic boom, has consolidated his power over the years and watched Turkey's $800 billion economy plummet disastrously amid unorthodox fiscal policies.

The right-wing Ancestral Alliance candidate, Sinan Ogan Sinan Ogan, who emerged with 5.17% of the vote in the first round, said on Monday he supported Erdogan in the runoff and urged his voters to support him.

Ogan had conditioned his support for any of the candidates on tougher policies toward refugees and some Kurdish groups he perceives as terrorists.

A lawmaker who has represented the CHP since 2002 — the same year Erdogan's AK Party came to power — Kilicdaroglu, 74, rose through politics to become his party's seventh president in 2010.

Born in the Kurdish-majority eastern province of Tunceli, the party leader participated in Turkey's 2011 general election but lost, coming in second behind Erdogan and his AK Party.

Kilicdaroglu represents the party formed 100 years ago by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the founding father of modern Turkey and a staunch secularist. It stands in stark contrast to Erdogan's Islamist-rooted party and conservative base.

Republican People's Party (CHP) leader and joint presidential candidate of the Nation Alliance, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, gives a press conference in Ankara on May 18. Alp Eren Kaya/AFP/Getty Images

However, despite his secular leanings, the opposition candidate and his alliance have promised to represent all factions of Turkish society, which analysts say was demonstrated in their diverse coalition.

Since the vote, his speeches have taken what analysts called a "shift of gear," with Kilicdaroglu promising to send back millions of migrant hosts in Turkey.

What are the international implications?

One of the world's largest economies and with a population of 85 million, Turkey is at the heart of an increasingly polarized world order.

A NATO member that has the alliance's second-largest army, Turkey has strengthened its ties with Russia in recent years. Erdogan's growing friendship with Russian President Vladimir Putin has drawn attention in the West, especially amid Moscow's continued onslaught in Ukraine.

In defiance of the US, Turkey even bought weapons from Russia in 2019, and last year caused a headache for NATO expansion plans by halting the membership of Finland and Sweden.

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In an exclusive interview with CNN's Becky Anderson, Erdogan said Turkey has a "special" and growing relationship with Vladimir Putin.

"We are not at a point where we would impose sanctions on Russia as the West has done. We are not subject to Western sanctions," Erdogan said. "We are a strong state and we have a positive relationship with Russia."

"Russia and Turkey need each other in every possible field," he added.

Kilicdaroglu has said he would not seek to emulate Erdogan's personality relationship with Putin, but would recalibrate Ankara's relationship with Moscow to be "state-driven."

But even if Erdogan is ousted in the election, a U-turn in Turkey's foreign policy is not a given, analysts said. While figures close to the opposition have indicated that, if he wins, he would reorient Turkey toward the West, others say core foreign policy issues are likely to remain unchanged.

Despite their disagreements, Turkey has been useful to its Western allies under Erdogan. Last year, Ankara helped mediate a historic grain export deal between Ukraine and Russia, and even provided Ukraine with drones that played a role in fighting Russian attacks. And while Sweden is still waiting to join NATO, Finland has been allowed to join.

What are voters' main concerns?

High on voters' list of concerns is the state of the economy and the damage caused by the earthquake. Even before the February disaster, Turkey was struggling with rising prices and a currency crisis that in October sent inflation soaring to 85%.

That affected the public's purchasing power and is "fundamentally the reason why Erdogan's popularity has eroded," said Sinan Ulgen, a former Turkish diplomat and chairman of the Istanbul-based think tank EDAM. "That will be the main disadvantage for Erdogan," he said.

Voters also cast their votes based on who they consider best able to handle the aftermath of the earthquake, as well as protect the country from future disasters, analysts say, adding that Erdogan's popularity has not had the expected political impact.

"There is a debate about which election platform provides the right solution to address these vulnerabilities and improve Turkey's resilience to these national disasters," Ulgen said.

In addition to the economy and the government's handling of Turkey's frequent natural disasters, voters are likely to be concerned about Erdogan's move away from democracy, something the opposition has campaigned to reverse.

In his CNN interview, Erdogan defended his economic policies and denied suppressing freedoms.

Who is likely to win?

Despite facing the strongest opposition yet to his government, Erdogan's future does not look as bleak as some predicted earlier this year.

The president has the support of a substantial religious sector, which appears to have been barely affected by the faltering economy or the government's chaotic early response to the earthquake.

Erdogan's critics argue that Erdogan further boosted his support base by making baseless accusations in the opposition camp. He accused Kilicdaroglu of collusion with Kurdish terror groups and repeatedly referred to the opposition leader — a member of the liberal Alevi Muslim minority — as a Muslim not good enough.

"This 'not good, terrorist-backed Muslim' strategy appealed to right-wing voters who were supposed to elect Kilicdaroglu," said Soner Cagaptay, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near Eastern Policy.

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (right) and Finland's President Sauli Niinisto (left) shake hands after a joint press conference held after their meeting at the Presidential Complex in Ankara, Turkey, March 17. Emin Sansar/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Cagaptay argues that while Erdogan's message did not resonate in Turkey's big cities and relatively prosperous southern coast, both of which voted largely for the opposition, Erdogan won the necessary support from the poorest parts of the country, namely in the central regions and on the Black Sea coast.

"There, support for Kilicdaroglu was suppressed because right-wing voters whose own parties backed Kilicdaroglu did not elect him," he said.

Erdogan's messages were also amplified by his broad influence over the Turkish media, critics argued.

Still, Sunday's runoff is Turkey's first presidential runoff. In 2019, Erdogan's ruling party lost major cities in mayoral elections, including his own hometown of Istanbul. On May 14, most of Istanbul's votes went to the opposition.

It remains to be seen what Sunday's elections hold, but if Erdogan wins, Cagaptay said, "he will be vindicated by unorthodox economic policies, lack of rule of law and the end of social autonomy."

CNN's Tamara Qiblawi and Isil Sariyuce in Istanbul contributed to this report.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan