Ukrainian air defenses are now capable of shooting down even 100% of enemy air targets, but this trend may not always be permanently sustainable.

Recall, according to the total data of the military and experts, in the first days of the full-scale invasion, Ukrainian defenders shot down an average of 12% to 20% of enemy missiles. Every month, this figure grew by approximately 10-15%, and already in October last year, when the occupiers began massive shelling again, the effectiveness of the air defense exceeded 50% and rapidly reached 80% of enemy targets shot down. We are talking not only about missiles, but also about kamikaze drones, which until autumn the Russians used in much smaller volumes.

How the air shield was strengthened

How Ukraine's defense in the air has strengthened from 12% to almost 90% - this was told in a comment for TSN.ua by the military-political observer of the Information Resistance group Oleksandr Kovalenko.

According to him, there is a fact that may even surprise some.

"In Ukraine, air defense at the beginning of the war was one of the best in Europe in terms of the number of combat-ready units. But our air defense had many drawbacks. One of the biggest drawbacks is that most were old-made, says Kovalenko. - Old Soviet technology did not allow shooting down modern missiles and some Soviet ones. The second problem was that the Russians at the beginning of a full-scale invasion used simultaneously a huge number of missiles of various bases. This required our air defense to use different algorithms. For example, the algorithm for countering the X-101 missile differs from the algorithm for countering the Caliber missile. As of today, we can say that in the first months we had a problem due to the number of enemy missiles. A large range of missiles that broke through our air defense was used."

At the beginning of the invasion, Ukrainian defenders shot down less than 20% of missiles

According to the expert, now, when Ukraine receives modern complexes from partners, the efficiency has been significantly increased and amounts to about 90% of the enemy's downed targets.

When asked how Ukraine survived the first months under enemy attacks without the help of partners, the expert answered us as follows: "First, the Russians underestimated our capabilities. They overestimated the capabilities of their aviation, went deep into our territory to carry out bombing and missile strikes. These planes and helicopters were destroyed."

To this, Kovalenko adds: "That is, there was an overestimation of our own and an underestimation of our capabilities. Our operators had experience thanks to training, very quickly gained combat experience. The potential of the Russians very quickly ran out, it was not enough to destroy our air defense. It is through the exhaustion of the Russian missile potential that we were able to simultaneously increase the effectiveness of counteraction. The enemy cannot carry out 100-150 missile strikes every day, now they do it with limited ammunition or with long pauses. This allowed us not only to hold out, but also to compensate for losses, to create even more effective and reliable air defense, taking into account our experience."

In addition, according to Kovalenko, Russia cannot produce such a number of missiles now to ensure constant round-the-clock shelling of our territory.

"Russia exhausted itself after October 10, when they began massive systemic shelling of our infrastructure. And we were able to increase the number of destroyed Russian missiles to 90%-95%. The Kinzhal turned out to be an ordinary ballistic missile, in the production of which the enemy used the Soviet concept. Yes, the Kinzhal has hypersonic speed, but it is not a hypersonic missile. And the Patriot air defense system was created specifically for the destruction of ballistic missiles. No wonder," says Kovalenko.

When asked whether it is possible that our air defense will destroy 100% of enemy air targets, the expert said: "It is also possible that it will not be stable. Any modern system can be broken through. One day you can shoot down 100% of missiles, you can do it the next day, but after 2-3 weeks 2-3 missiles can break through. It depends on several factors. This is influenced by weather conditions, and time of day, and tactics. So far, the Russians have already tried many options, but not all. They will still change tactics, experiment, I'm sure of that. Now the percentage of shooting down enemy air targets by Ukrainian air defense is almost 90% and even more."

How new aircraft will change the situation

Of the F-16 military fighter jets that Ukraine could get, Kovalenko says: "They are more effective than the Soviet MiG-29 and Su-27. The F-16 has a much better radar that can detect and track a target at a distance of 200-250 km. This is almost 5 times better than the capabilities of the MiG-29. The interception of cruise missiles and kamikaze drones will be more efficient and safer for pilots."

At the same time, according to Kovalenko, the Israeli air defense system justifies itself only in Israel. "Ukraine has a completely different story. That air defense system was created to intercept artisanal rockets. This system is problematic in terms of integration into other air defense systems. Our system is unique in general – it is a mixture of Soviet and Western air defense systems, so it will be very difficult to integrate the Iron Dome and the effect may be doubtful," the expert summed up.

We will remind, earlier it was reported about the expert's disappointing forecast regarding possible shelling by Russia.

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