Vladimir Putin, crumbling or still in power? 4:05

Editor's Note: Frida Ghitis, (@fridaghitis) a former CNN producer and correspondent, is a world affairs columnist. She is a weekly CNN opinion contributor, a columnist for The Washington Post and a columnist for the World Politics Review. The views expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author. See more opinions on CNN.

(CNN) -- As Russia prepares for an imminent Ukrainian counteroffensive and the 2024 U.S. presidential contest takes shape, it is increasingly clear that Russian President Vladimir Putin believes a possible path to victory in his hitherto fruitless war lies in the U.S. election.

The latest proof that Putin can expect Western support for Ukraine to end, if Russian forces hold out until there is a new president in the White House, came hidden in a blunt Russian Foreign Ministry announcement on Friday, declaring that entry into the country would be "closed to 500 Americans."

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The blacklist, Moscow explained, targets individuals "involved in the propagation of Russophobic and phony attitudes," as well as executives of companies that supply arms to Ukraine.

A glance at the lengthy document may be, at first, a disconcerting experience, but then quite enlightening.

The hundreds of names are mostly members of American think tanks, along with dozens of members of Congress, current and former government officials, including former President Barack Obama, a handful of journalists and even some comedians.

Among them, Erin Burnett of CNN and Nick Paton Walsh of the United Kingdom, who have done numerous reports on Ukraine. It is logical for a dictator to persecute journalists who tell the truth about his regime. The same can be said for late-night comedians. Tyrants are not characterized by their sense of humor.

But there are also some very intriguing names. Why would Putin have reason to attack the secretary of state of a southern US state?

Does the name Brad Raffensperger ring a bell?

It turns out that Raffensperger is a well-known figure among anyone who has followed recent American history. He became one of the most prominent figures in former President Donald Trump's effort to overturn the 2020 election.

The recordings of a phone conversation in which Trump tells him to "find" enough votes to win the state are evidence in a criminal investigation that could end with the indictment of the former president this summer.

In fact, some of the strangest selections on Putin's blacklist are related to the problems of Trump and his most fervent supporters.

Putin blacklisted Letitia James, the New York attorney general who filed a civil lawsuit against the former president and his adult children and his company for what he called a "staggering fraud."

There's also John Smith, better known as Jack Smith, appointed special counsel by the Justice Department to oversee criminal investigations into, among other possible crimes, whether Trump improperly handled classified material, another case that's gaining traction and is apparently creating great anxiety in Trump's world.

On its blacklist, the Kremlin appears to defend the pro-Trump insurgents of January 6 who tried to prevent the certification of Joe Biden's election victory. It bans entry into Russia to Americans who work in law enforcement, "directly involved in the persecution of dissidents following the so-called storming of the Capitol."

The list includes David Sundberg, deputy director in charge of the FBI's Washington office, who led the Jan. 6 investigation.

It's a list full of intriguing options. It is perhaps not surprising to see names that became famous during Trump's first impeachment trial, such as Russia expert Fiona Hill and former US ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch.

Vladimir Putin, crumbling or still in power? 4:05

Is Russia signaling its support for Trump?

Signage was hardly necessary. The former president has made it abundantly clear that if he wins another term, U.S. policy toward Ukraine would be very different.

In a March interview with Fox News' Sean Hannity, Trump predicted that "ultimately [Putin] is going to take over all of Ukraine."

During the recent CNN forum, he was asked if he supported sending military aid to Ukraine. After launching a wild tirade, complete with insults against former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, he flashed his cards.

Trump rarely responds with a clear yes or no, leaving room to deny. But the answer did not leave much doubt. "We're giving away a lot of equipment," he lamented. Asked if he wants Ukraine to win the war, he refused to say, offering instead: "I don't think in terms of winning and losing... I want everyone to stop dying." (He claims he could stop the war in 24 hours.)

If Russia and Trump have already made their preferences perfectly clear, even indirectly, those who may have needed some nudge are the Americans who oppose aid to Ukraine and are undecided between Trump and his main Republican opponent, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

DeSantis, who is about to announce his candidacy, has been working assiduously to cement his position as a standard-bearer for ultra-conservative social views. Some of those views, by the way, particularly those hostile to LGBT minorities, lean in the direction of Putin's assault on LGBT rights, which is far more draconian than what Florida has done.

But DeSantis is not Putin's man, unless he changes his stance on Ukraine again.

A few months ago, Florida's governor provoked a furious reaction from hardline Republicans and GOP donors when he responded to a questionnaire from fired Fox arsonist Tucker Carlson describing Russia's brutal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine as a "territorial dispute."

Presumably, DeSantis wanted to sound skeptical of Washington's strong backing for Ukraine, but he went too far.

Trying to repair the damage, he said he had been misunderstood. Putin, DeSantis declared, "is a war criminal."

With that, DeSantis made the Kremlin's election much easier. It seems that now the Kremlin is pointing not too subtly to the American ultra-right that has already made its choice.

Head of the Wagner group attacks military leadership, will he do it against Putin? 1:42

If Russia's preference became a big issue in the U.S. the first time Trump ran for president, the upcoming U.S. contest is even more important for Russia this time.

Russian officials had told Putin that his army could conquer Ukraine quite easily. Even American generals believed that Moscow's forces would take control of Kyiv in a few days.

Instead, nearly 15 months later, the war has become an embarrassing debacle for Putin, drastically eroding Russia's standing abroad, even as Putin remains popular at home. But however bad the invasion goes, Putin surely believes that accepting defeat in Ukraine could be disastrous for him.

Now he appears to be betting that he can outlast Biden, who has led the West's strong support for Ukraine. That is why the next Ukrainian counteroffensive is so crucial.

As the U.S. election approaches, Putin is betting that time is shortening for Ukraine.

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