Ukraine proves the effectiveness of its air defense 2:12

(CNN) -- The massive Russian missile bombardment in Kyiv this week was the fastest and most complex attack on Ukraine's capital so far. The Kremlin claimed it had hit one of America's prestigious Patriot missile defense systems.

It was a bold claim, but it turned out not entirely without merit. The complex automated missile system suffered minimal damage — possibly from falling debris — but was not destroyed and continued to function, US officials told CNN.

However, speculation that day raised concerns that Kyiv's nearly invincible missile shield, largely gifted by NATO partners, could now have vulnerable holes that Russia would exploit.

An exploded missile streaks through the sky over Kyiv amid Russia's war against Ukraine on May 16, 2023. The Kremlin claimed it had hit a U.S. Patriot missile defense system.

Firefighters repair damage to a vehicle parking area after Russian missiles landed in Kyiv on Tuesday. The White House rejected Moscow's claims that the strike hit a Patriot missile defense system.

The next night, however, the skies of the capital were calm. The all-too-familiar and disconcerting sound of interception rockets launching at incoming lethal charges did not happen. President Xi's envoy, Li Hui, was spending the night there on a planned and publicly announced visit. A missile that disturbed his peace or, worse, hit him could have changed the course of the war.

But Putin needed metaphorical blood in Volodymyr Zelensky's nose as Ukrainian officials met with Li. He wants to persuade the only world leader who can tip the scales in his stalled struggle with Ukraine that he can win and that his offensive is worthy of military support.

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Nothing would have spoken louder of Moscow's prestige than its much-vaunted and expensive Kinzhal hypersonic missile to have won a duel with the American Patriots.

Flying up to 10 times the speed of sound, the six hypersonic Kinzhal missiles he fired that night cost a total of $60 million. The nine cruise missiles fired from its Black Sea fleet nearly doubled the bill, and that's before adding the cost of the Iskander and S400 missiles that were also part of that night's attack.

Ankara on the diplomatic fence

Xi is not the only leader involved in the Ukraine war that Putin appears to be trying to convince.

Turkey's volatile leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan received a phone call from Putin on the same day Li left Kyiv. Within hours of the call, months of disputes with Moscow over the "Black Sea Grain Agreement" had ended.

The agreement, negotiated by the UN to ensure Ukraine can get its grain to world markets, critical to food security in East Africa and other impoverished regions, was first signed in July and renewed every few months. Every time Moscow drags its feet, grain supplies falter, nearly grind to a halt before Putin signals it can continue.

• Where do grains produced in Ukraine go?

The deal has become another attempt at Russian influence over Turkey. Since the war began, Putin has tried to get Erdogan to abandon the diplomatic fence and stop supporting both Russia and Ukraine, to whom he sends vital drones to the battlefield.

Late last year, Putin offered Erdogan a potentially lucrative deal to host a new Russian gas export hub to Europe, now that the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which runs under the Baltic Sea to Germany, has been destroyed.

Erdogan is a permanent hunter, always looking for ways to secure his position as president and Turkey's influence with his international partners. Geopolitics is his preferred trade bazaar, and Putin plays in it.

Letting the Black Sea grain deal drag on for another 60 days was a gift from Putin to Erdogan. It could have made it more difficult and potentially more politically dangerous for the Turkish leader, who faces a runoff in his country's presidential election on May 28.

Putin likely calculated that he had no need to commit to the deal until after the first round of last week's Turkish election. Its outcome seems to indicate that Erdogan will likely win the runoff, making the grain deal a useful diplomatic investment for Putin.

Of course, there are no guarantees that Erdogan will win. There is also no guarantee that Xi will be interested in Putin's missile salvo against Kyiv's Patriot missile batteries, but he will surely have paid attention.

A costly military tactic

A gold standard in protection, the Patriots are sent to America's allies around the world; They are both a sign of political support and an act of real-time military defense, a powerful symbol of collective security.

As Xi ponders his rising tensions with the U.S. and a possible confrontation over the disputed island of Taiwan, the war in Ukraine provides a practical lesson in which weapons are best, what works, and where America's weak spots are.

While Putin's real war strategy — beyond trying to force 40 million Ukrainians into submission — is difficult to comprehend, he certainly places great value on his relationship with Xi.

China's President Xi Jinping (left), pictured with Putin (right) in Moscow on March 21, 2023, has remained one of the Kremlin's closest allies during the conflict in Ukraine.

It was Xi whom he visited on the eve of his illegal and unjustified invasion of Ukraine last year. It was Xi who came to Moscow and spoke of a peace deal that never acknowledged Russia's trampling on Ukraine's sovereignty and international law. Xi also failed to mention the moral depravity of Putin's troops and the war crimes they and the Kremlin have committed.

In short, from Putin's perspective, Xi is the closest thing to a powerful ally he has right now, but he would be much more useful if he believed Moscow could win the war. Crushing Kyiv's Patriot on the eve of the Chinese envoy's visit would have been a sign that Russia's military strength has not been completely wasted on the battlefield and that Putin has some blows left.

Meanwhile, Kyiv believes it also has good reason to court Li. Zelensky's government believes Xi listens to its version of the war story, which it sees as instrumental in undermining Putin's narrative of victimhood.

At the United Nations in New York, on the eve of the war's first anniversary, Ukraine won 141 votes in favor of its motion demanding that Russia leave its territory. The Chinese did not unveil Xi's 12-point peace plan until the next day. Ukraine considers it respectful, indicating that dialogue is worthwhile.

Despite Putin's attempts to eliminate the Patriots, Li's visit doesn't seem to have changed that view. Both Beijing and Kyiv — despite major differences — still talk about the "constructive" role China can play. That's certainly not the return on investment the Kremlin would have hoped for.

ChinaWar in UkraineVladimir Putin