One of the scenarios of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, which will soon begin, is to frighten the enemy so that their entire front crumbles, as was the case during the liberation of Kharkiv Oblast and Kherson.

Co-director of foreign policy programs, coordinator of international projects of the Razumkov Center, military expert Oleksiy Melnyk said this in an exclusive interview with OBOZREVATEL.

"The situation can develop in different ways. We can hope that the counteroffensive will be so successful that the Russian front will crumble. Another such defeat after Kharkiv took place, as Kherson took place, can trigger processes both in the Russian army

and inside Russia itself,

and they may affect Russia's ability to continue this war. But this is only one of the scenarios," Melnyk noted. 

However, according to him, no one is certain how the events at the front will develop during the counteroffensive operation. 

"I am afraid neither I nor our command have complete confidence in the scale of such success,

because plans are one thing, and real life is another

. Of course, one of the elements of offensive planning is an assessment of how the enemy will act, an assessment his forces. But even the most thorough preparations and the most detailed intelligence in any case are not 100% and do not give a 100% guarantee," he noted. 

"We often hear the expression 'fog of war'. Its meaning is that

the military command has to make decisions with rather incomplete information.

This is the risk of both forecasting and the decisions that are made," he explained.

Ukrainian counteroffensive: what is known

On Wednesday, March 29, the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Oleksiy Reznikov in an interview with ERR said that preparations are underway for the counteroffensive, which should begin in April-May.

It is planned in several directions, which exactly - it is unknown. 

In addition, the US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said that Ukraine can launch a successful counteroffensive in the spring, taking advantage of the exhaustion of the Russian army and the supply of Western weapons.

Read also:

  • Ukraine news

  • War in Ukraine

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