Briefly:

• Lukashenka's threat to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus was one of the methods of putting pressure on the West.

• All rogue dictator states dream of weapons of mass destruction as a guarantee of their own security.

• Belarus and its leadership are hostages of the Kremlin's crazy policy.

• With this decision, Lukashenka connects his political and life fate with the fate of Putin.

• The deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus will accelerate the evolution of an authoritarian regime into a totalitarian one.

Throughout 2022, Lukashenka talked about the possibility of nuclear weapons appearing in Belarus, talked about preparations for the implementation of this idea (refitting of aircraft, training of crews, etc.).

However, Putin's statement about the quick completion of the construction of the storage facility for nuclear warheads and the subsequent transfer of tactical nuclear weapons to Belarusian territory came as a surprise.

Why?

For many years, everyone got used to Lukashenka's manner of building relations with the West using blackmail and threats as a way to force Western countries to negotiate on terms favorable to official Minsk.

That is, he is used to talking with Western countries from a position of strength.

Even before the fateful events of 2020, Lukashenka threatened the West many times with the threat of opening the borders for migrants, drug trafficking, nuclear materials, and from time to time gave "nightmares" to cargo carriers.

After 2020, this role was played by the artificially created migration crisis, endless military exercises, the movement of troops to the border and back, etc.

The threat to place nuclear weapons here was one of the ways to put pressure on the West.

Therefore, the practical implementation of this threat became in a certain sense unexpected for political subjects.

After all, this method of pressure works only when the threat is stronger than the execution.

If it is implemented, then there is nothing to be afraid of.

The logic of Lukashenka, who agreed to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus, is quite clear.

All rogue states dream of weapons of mass destruction as a guarantee of their own security.

Moreover, the security is not so much of the country as of the political regime.

And such a desire of dictatorships to obtain nuclear weapons periodically provokes international crises.

Fidel Castro's desire to deploy Soviet missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads in Cuba led to the 1962 Caribbean crisis.

Iran's nuclear program has caused a sharp conflict between Tehran and a broad coalition led by the United States.

North Korea regularly creates international crises when it once again announces the testing of new weapons.

Lukashenko also positions himself in this direction.

Once, after the military conflict between NATO and Yugoslavia, he noticed that no one bombed countries with nuclear weapons.

That is why Lukashenka tried to acquire nuclear weapons throughout his rule.

By the way, I believe that the construction of a nuclear power plant, which does not make economic sense, is explained by the logic of turning the country into a nuclear state.

Let it be a peaceful atom.

And the main content of state propaganda, which comments on Putin's decision of March 25, is precisely that nuclear weapons give the country political weight and security.

The motto is the phrase: "Nuclear-armed states are not attacked by anyone."

In a way, it really is.

I believe that if Ukraine had nuclear weapons, it is unlikely that Putin would dare to go on a military adventure against it.

However, this logic has obvious disadvantages.

Nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus are changing everything.

Lukashenka's regime is becoming much more toxic than before.

With all the corresponding consequences.

First of all, the nuclear weapons that are going to be deployed on the territory of Belarus belong to another state - Russia.

And it is Moscow that will decide the issue of its use.

That is, Belarus and its leadership are hostages of the Kremlin's insane policy, as is already obvious.

And will Lukashenka have the right to veto its application?

Not at all obvious.

Putin used Belarusian territory to attack Kyiv in February of last year without the knowledge of the Belarusian authorities.

There is another important factor.

For 80 years, since the appearance of the nuclear bomb, this weapon has been a deterrent both in theory and in practice.

That is, it was intended to warn a potential enemy, and not for practical use.

The war in Ukraine, Putin's threats to use it sharply lower the nuclear threshold.

This is a step towards turning nuclear weapons into a real instrument of war.

And it is at this moment that she appears in Belarus.

And if the exchange of nuclear strikes begins, the country becomes a potential target for a retaliatory strike.

It will not be possible to sit aside.

With this decision, Lukashenka connects his political and life fate with the fate of Putin.

It will be much more difficult to distance ourselves from Moscow, to say that we are not participating in the war, we are for peace, and even more so to offer the status of a peacemaker.

And, perhaps, the most important thing is the mood of society.

Sociology shows that 80% of Belarusians do not approve of the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus.

That is, the government is, in fact, against the national consensus on this issue.

Let me remind you that Belarus is a country with the "Chernobyl syndrome" that has not been overcome.

Even on the question of the construction of the nuclear power plant, the society was split in half.

And here is a nuclear bomb.

And in order to retain power, the regime will have to increase the severity of repression.

Thus, the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus will accelerate the process of evolution of an authoritarian regime into a totalitarian one.

Maybe that's why Lukashenka has been silent for several days, he doesn't comment on the situation with nuclear weapons, which he so persistently requested.

And it is no coincidence that the statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Belarus looks like an excuse.

When people make excuses, they subconsciously understand the fragility of the situation.

• Valer Karbalevich

  He was born in 1955.

  Graduated from the history faculty of BSU, candidate of historical sciences, associate professor.

  Radio Svaboda political commentator.

  
  
  

  karbalevich@gmail.com

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