The situation in Avdiivka in Donetsk region
Since March 27, the city
has been in the "red" zone
From now on, due to constant shelling, entry there is prohibited.
The Russian army
concentrated its main efforts on conducting an offensive
in this direction and probably involved experienced "Wagnerians" in the assault.
Why is Russia turning Avdiivka into a second Bakhmut, what are the chances of the enemy capturing the city and what are the risks,
military expert Oleg Zhdanov told
What threatens Avdiivka's capture by Russia
According to Zhdanov, Avdiivka does not have a special strategic importance.
The city is important for the enemy during an offensive operation, because it is a bridgehead.
If the Russian army captures the city,
it will push Ukrainian troops away from Donetsk.
In addition, in this case, the occupiers will move forward, closer to the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
"That's all. It doesn't have such a strategic significance. It doesn't have an operational significance today. It's just like Bakhmut. This is a city, our city, and they just continue to capture the territory," Zhdanov explained.
Screenshot from deepstatemap.live
What are Russia's chances of capturing Avdiivka
A military expert believes that
the chances of capturing Avdiivka in Russia
are much smaller than the chances of taking Bakhmut.
Zhdanov emphasized that Ukraine "made conclusions" after Bakhmut, so in the case of Avdiivka, the city was closed immediately.
From there, civilians are evacuated together with city services and
preparations are being made for defense
The head of the Avdiyiv city military administration, Vitaly Barabash, previously announced that mobile communications would also be turned off in the city.
He urged residents not to delay and leave.
According to him, high-rise buildings "fall apart" almost every day as a result of enemy shelling.
"By the way, Avdiivka has always been such an outpost. And there are sections of the front in Avdiivka that are still in positions on February 23, 2022. We have not advanced a single meter. We are preparing for the defense of this city," Zhdanov noted.
Aggravation in Avdiivka - the new big offensive of Russia?
Zhdanov believes that the Russian offensive in the Avdiiv direction can hardly be singled out as a separate episode.
This is not
a new big offensive of the Russian Federation
According to a military expert, the Russian army expired in the Bakhmut direction, but due to the battles there, it gained strength in other directions.
"And now they are trying. It didn't work in Bakhmut - let's try in Avdiivka. Before that, they tried in Vugledar - it didn't work in Vugledar. Before that, they tried in Kreminnaya, on Liman. They tried in Kupyansk. They are constantly trying. There, where there is even a little reserve, there is an opportunity, they try to advance," the military expert explained.
The offensive on Avdiivka was probably a political decision
Zhdanov added that Russian President Vladimir Putin probably
set a new deadline for the occupying army
"According to some sources, Putin gave two weeks to capture Bakhmut and Avdiivka," said a military expert.
It should be noted that the military-political observer Oleksiy Arestovych expressed the opinion that the attempts of the Russian army to advance in the Avdiiv direction
may be a political, not a military decision
In a conversation with Russian oppositionist and lawyer Mark Feigin on March 27, he said that the enemy could throw reserves at Avdiyivka in response to assessments by Western military analysts and statements by the Ukrainian military command.
"It is most likely that it was a shout from Moscow, which ordered the military command: "Why are they declaring in Ukraine that Bakhmut cannot be taken, that there is no tactical possibility?
"And they drove people to slaughter in order to demonstratively show this force. I am of the opinion that this is not a military decision. This is no longer a military logic, but a political one," Arestovych believes.
Screenshot from deepstatemap.live
Avdiivka is stormed by experienced "Wagnerians"
A recent report by the American Institute for the Study of War states that the Russian military leadership probably involved "Wagnerians" with experience in the assault on Avdiivka.
In this way, the occupiers are trying to support the exhausted and inferior forces of the "DPR".
Analysts believe that the participation of "Wagner" fighters near Avdiivka can help explain
the limited tactical success of the Russian Federation
in this area over the past week.
In particular, we are talking about minor successes in the north and south-west of Bakhmut, Donetsk region.
Russia's losses near Avdiivka are significant, and there is no significant progress
According to British intelligence, Russian troops are suffering significant armor losses in their attempts to surround Avdiivka and are not making significant progress there.
The Tenth Tank Regiment of the Russian Federation probably
lost most of its tanks
during the attempt to encircle the city from the south.
The regiment is part of the 3rd Army Corps.
This is the first major new formation created by Russia to support the invasion of Ukraine from August 2022.
Intelligence believes that the losses of the 10th tank regiment, most likely, are
connected with tactically flawed frontal attacks
, similar to other recent unsuccessful Russian armored attacks, for example, around the city of Vugledar.
We will remind you that according to the latest data from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Russia is concentrating its main efforts on conducting offensive operations
in the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiiv and Marin areas
The fiercest battles are now going on for
Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Maryinka
War in Ukraine
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