Western leaders are beginning to have a clearer picture of how to end the war in Ukraine, but there is a lack of a plan for how to do it.

This is stated in the Wall Street Journal article.

In Washington and European capitals, the hope is that a Ukrainian counteroffensive — bolstered by Western tanks and other fresh weapons — will punch a hole in Russia's control of Ukrainian territory this spring.

The West hopes that Kiev's battlefield advantage will push Putin into peace talks where the Kremlin would cede at least the territory it seized after the February 2022 invasion.

Then Ukraine can freely secure its future in the West, and the defeated and humiliated Mr. Putin can face the anger of his own people," the publication suggested.

A battle for exhaustion

A war of attrition is also likely, according to the WSJ, which will continue until one side is defeated or exhausted enough to call it quits.

Many diplomats, speaking on condition of anonymity, admit that such a result will be measured in years, not months.

There is not even a clear consensus on what to do with Putin if Ukraine wins.

There is broad agreement that Ukraine should be given the means to deter a future Russian invasion, either within NATO or through some kind of treaty with the Alliance.

But French President Emmanuel Macron and some allies have said they are wary of humiliating Russia and want the West to offer Ukraine security guarantees that Russia can live with.

Others, on the other hand, want the Russian army to be permanently weakened.

Photo: Associated Press

According to the publication, Macron rejected the idea of ​​regime change in Moscow and openly doubts Ukraine's ability to achieve complete victory on the battlefield.

He urged Ukraine to start negotiations with the Kremlin this year after it receives the expected gains from the counteroffensive.

The Russian dictator, who has a large reserve of troops, believes that he can wait out the determination of the West, so why negotiate.

"Putin is likely counting on time working in his favor. And that continuing the war, including with possible pauses in hostilities, may be his best path to ultimately securing Russia's strategic interests in Ukraine, even if years," said Avril Gaines, US director of national intelligence.

The prospect of a possible change in the US in 2024 may also encourage Putin, who believes a Republican president would offer less support to Kyiv.

Sanctions

Meanwhile, US-led sanctions are undermining Russia's economic base.

But the Russian economy has not yet collapsed as many predicted, in part because of China's support and continued purchases of oil from India and other countries.

The support Putin received recently during a visit by Chinese leader Xi Jinping likely raised his hopes for a war of attrition, Western diplomats say.

"The USA will never allow Ukraine to fall. This is how I perceive President Biden's visit to Kyiv," said Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki.

"I am more concerned about my Western European partners and friends because they are less patient."

Will Kyiv have to make concessions?

According to Western diplomats, even if the Ukrainian forces are well armed, they are unlikely to gain such a decisive advantage on the battlefield that Kyiv will demand the return of the entire occupied territory.

"The fight for Russian-controlled Donbas, where Moscow's forces are more entrenched, is likely to be much more difficult. The recent bloodshed over the city of Bakhmut, where each side suffered heavy losses for small territorial gains, seems more typical of the future of war," the article says.

Photo: Associated Press

Ukraine's allies could do more to tip the scales in Kyiv's favor.

But providing weapons that could achieve this was a source of disagreement.

Great Britain and Poland were at the forefront of pushing for more powerful weapons.

The United States, fearing that a "nuclear" Putin would regard any move as an escalation, was more cautious.

Washington has refused to send the Army's MGM-140 Long-Range Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS.

Even the advanced Himars missile launchers sent by the US were modified so their firing range was limited.

One senior European diplomat said that while there is some discussion among allies about what victory or defeat might mean for Ukraine, no serious diplomatic initiative is in the offing.

The Taiwan factor

Western allies see their current course, albeit uncertain, as the only acceptable option, as China's desire to seize Taiwan lurks in the shadow of Ukraine.

According to US intelligence, Xi Jinping has ordered his military to be ready for the next few years.

Western diplomats believe he needs high confidence in his chances of success to move forward.

The US and its allies see their role in arming Taiwan and training their own troops to sow enough doubt to deter Xi.

Like Putin, Xi Jinping sees the global financial crisis and the chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan as signs that America is in decline.

Allies believe that if the West's resolve on Ukraine weakens, it will send a potentially catastrophic signal to Xi that he is right.

Read also:

• Ukraine news

• War in Ukraine

• News of Ukraine: video

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