The Russian occupiers may try to launch a counteroffensive on the Kreminna-Lyman-Svatov-Kupyansk line, but it will not be successful.
Military and political commentator Oleksandr Kovalenko told about this in an exclusive interview with TSN.ua
"They were accumulating their resource for the offensive from the end of 2022 to the beginning of 2023 at this very bridgehead in order to start offensive actions along the Kreminna-Lyman-Svatove-Kupyansk line by about February 24. They did not start it because of what was many natural factors, when it was irrational and ineffective to carry out a counterattack. But the forces and means were concentrated along the P-66 line and were constantly under fire from the Armed Forces. Therefore, even when they were not in any active offensive actions, they lost a large number of personnel and equipment," Kovalenko explained.
The expert believes that the Russians may try to launch an offensive on this part of the front, but it will probably be unsuccessful.
"Today it is not the same potential that they had two months ago, but they will try to conduct these offensive actions and it will not have a strong enough effect, because the conditions there are unfavorable for them - they are in a lowland, a landscape that is completely is shot at. Offensive actions in such locations is suicide. If they start offensive actions, for them it will be the end of the resource they have accumulated. It would be more effective for them to take defensive positions, that is, to hold the defense. But I understand that there there are orders from their generals — to go on the attack, to capture new territories. Therefore, it seems to me that in the near future this resource will be leveled without any high coefficient of effectiveness. After that, even on this bridgehead, something interesting can begin from the side of the Armed Forces," he emphasized expert.
Along with this, there is information that the Russians want to capture Kupyansk, which is an important logistics hub.
Such a threatening scenario in this context should not be dismissed, because such risks are always present, Oleksandr Kovalenko noted.
"For the Russians, this is the main plan — from Kreminnaya to Lyman, from Svatovo to Kupyansk. That is, to seize this entire line from Liman to Kupyansk — this is the line of the left bank of the Oskil River. That is, the entire left-bank part of the Kharkiv Oblast of the Oskil River. That is why it is quite threatening the situation, but the question is different. The plans are such, the Russians do not have the opportunity to implement them. Yes, they can launch an offensive, they can simulate offensive actions, assault actions, but they have their own problems at each location," Kovalenko believes.
The military expert emphasized that the defense lines of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have already been created in Kharkiv Oblast.
"After the liberation of Kharkiv region, a line of defense was formed on this part, where they were ready to meet the Russian invaders. Therefore, when they tried, for example, to advance in the direction of Dvorichny to exit to Kupyansk, they met a response from closed positions. They, as if in the palm of their hand, are in open space and are being fired upon. The Russians are losing their offensive potential very quickly. I don't see a real risk on this bridgehead for their offensive operation to have any large-scale success," the expert believes.
We will remind, according to the General Staff, the occupiers direct their main efforts to conduct offensive operations in the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiiv and Marin areas.
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