Pavel Luzin , a Russian expert in foreign and defense policy, invited researcher at the American The Fletcher School at Tufts University, answers

these questions

• Nuclear weapons in Belarus will be controlled by Russia, the object of storage will be Russian.

• The decision to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus was made in 2022.

  The Russian military was against it, but politics prevailed.

  The military stopped influencing decision-making.

• Creating storage facilities for nuclear charges is a big job.

  In addition, there should be a place of residence for officers who will maintain nuclear weapons, a motor vehicle base, and security.

  Work on locating a nuclear weapons storage facility in Belarus has been underway since the summer of 2022.

• The decision was made during the war.

  Before the war, the Russian military resisted him.

• For several years now, Russia has been demanding that the United States remove nuclear weapons from Europe and stop nuclear sharing with NATO members.

  American air bases exist in Italy, Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium and Turkey.

  There are American nuclear weapons on these bases, and they can be used not only by American pilots, but also by the military of these countries.

  This is the double key principle.

  Let's say a Turkish pilot trains his F-16 to use a B-61 free-fall bomb.

  He learns to use it, but in case of war he must be able to do it.

  This topic has existed since the second half of the 50s.

  This practice is an important element of NATO unity and American security guarantees.

• As for Russian nuclear weapons, there are rumors that they are in Crimea.

  Although it is pointless to keep her there.

  There is a nuclear weapons storage facility in the Kaliningrad region, it has existed since Soviet times.

• Russia is now trying to imitate the American policy of nuclear sharing in order to drive a wedge between Europe and the United States.

• In the current situation, the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus is blackmail not only by NATO, but also by Ukraine.

  So that the Europeans would be scared, so that they would reduce aid to Ukraine.

  This is a warning to Ukraine: if you want to destroy our planes based in Belarus, keep in mind that there is a nuclear option.

• Lukashenko wants Russian nuclear weapons to appear in Belarus, but this is not from a great mind.

  He thinks that if the Russians take her to Belarus, they will depend on him just as he now depends on them.

  He looks at Erdogan, knows that there is an American base in Turkey.

  But Lukashenka does not understand that he is not Erdogan, and Russia is not the United States.

• He does not understand that if a nuclear weapons storage facility is located in Belarus, not only a security company will be located there, but troops will also be located there.

  From the end of 2021, Russian troops are in Belarus on a temporary basis.

  And when a storage facility appears, they will be placed there on a permanent basis.

• The Americans, being in Europe, delegate responsibility to their allies.

  There is no US division around the US air base.

  And the Russian military and political culture does not provide for such a degree of trust in allies.

  The consequence of the creation of a nuclear storage facility in Belarus will be the creation of several permanent Russian military bases.

• And Belarusian pilots, perhaps, after being checked by Russian military counter-intelligence and under the guidance of Russian generals, will be allowed to use Russian nuclear weapons.

  The decision to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus was made by the Kremlin in the summer of 2022, before it became clear that Russia would lose the war.

• NATO's eastern flank is being strengthened.

  Air defense systems are located there, which will prevent Russian or Belarusian planes with nuclear weapons from taking off.

  NATO countries will cope with the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus and without the deployment of nuclear weapons in countries bordering Belarus.

• There are experts in Russia who could explain to the leaders in the Kremlin that what they are doing is stupid.

  But such people are not allowed anywhere near the analytical support of the Kremlin.

• On February 27, 2022, Macron called Lukashenka and persuaded him not to allow the introduction of Russian nuclear weapons into Belarus.

  It is precisely because Macron called Lukashenka that Russia is now deploying nuclear weapons in Belarus.

  She wants to influence him.

• Lukashenka talks a lot.

  And where is his reaction to Putin's statement about the return of nuclear weapons to Belarus?

  Why didn't he say: thank you, Volodya, you finally heard me and fulfilled my request?

  No, he is silent.

  Why?

• He was swinging all this rope only in order to find a balance between Russia with its occupation contingent and Europe.

  That is why Belarus was not included in all sanctions packages.

  Lukashenko tried to maneuver, he used the nuclear threat to beg Europe not to leave him alone with Putin.

• One of the leaders of this policy was the late Mackay.

  But Lukashenka's maneuvering policy went to waste.

• He will not jump down or fall anywhere.

  You can trade a threat that is not realized.

  But now it is implemented.

  And it was not implemented by Lukashenko.

• Yuri Drakakhrust

  Radio Svaboda journalist

  
  

  drakakhrusty@rferl.org

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