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Announcing that he will return home to live in Thailand.
together with the children and grandchildren of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra
It happened over and over again countless times.
until it seems to be a discourse
Since fleeing many cases as a result of the 2006 coup, he has spent more than 17 years living in exile abroad.
Last time, I told the Japanese media.
will not ask for amnesty, but will return to serve a prison sentence in Thailand
Regardless of the results of the election month
May will come out anyway.
But I am confident that the Pheu Thai Party will definitely win the election with a majority vote.
It should be exactly 2 months that the 23rd former Prime Minister of Thailand at the age of 73 announced that he would return home this year.
Later on the night of January 24, 2023, just told through the clubhouse while in London, England, or there may be some secret deals.
Makes me more confident that I will be able to return to my life in the end
Come live in your home country without any problems.
and came to raise grandchildren as intended
But if he returned to serve the sentence, he was imprisoned in prison.
Will not be able to live in the outside world, be with children and raise grandchildren, and since the coup d'état in 2006 until 2021, Thaksin Shinawatra has been accused in 8 lawsuits from the court and the NACC, a total of 8 cases. who have already sentenced 4 cases in the Lottery Fraud case
The lawsuit against Exim Bank
4,000 million baht loan to Myanmar in case of Shin Corp shares
and the land case in the Ratchada area, including 12 years in prison
Excluding two cases that the NACC is investigating in the G-to-G rice drainage case.
under the Yingluck Shinawatra government, in which Thaksin was accused of being behind
and the case for the purchase of 4 A340-500 aircraft during 2002-2004 and the procurement of 75 aircraft in 2011, causing Thai Airways to have more debts.
Thaksin Shinawatra has lived abroad for 17 years.
The only way "Thaksin" will be able to return home to take care of grandchildren.
In conclusion, people like Thaksin
Do you really intend to come back and receive the punishment?
Come hear from the mouth of
"Assoc. Prof. Dr. Thanapat Patchhim" Dean of the School of Law and Politics
Suan Dusit University
I used to say that it was just Thaksin's discourse around the time of the election.
and when Thaksin
announced to return home
Still deciding that
Thaksin will definitely not return to be punished.
and the only way for Thaksin to return home
have to accept the terms
laws with penalties
Must go to justice in any case
which has many cases
or there may be another new case
is the only condition
would likely make Thaksin
come back home to raise grandchildren
“Some cases can be revived. In case the facts are found can request a new appeal. You can review again. think Thaksin's group have to think about this It is therefore impossible that Thaksin will return for punishment Except when he came back and was not punished at all, he thought that Thaksin would definitely not accept to return to be punished. everything is a discourse And the popularity of the Pheu Thai Party at the moment is quite good.”
while the conservation group
rarely accept Thaksin's return
Or even if they come back to receive the penalty, if they really come back to receive the penalty
Probably did it during his stay in England and returned to Thailand on February 28, 2008 after the People's Power Party won the election.
and Yingluck Shinawatra, the younger sister
became prime minister
but did not have to flee the case to a distant land to the present
or even if there are people who love Thaksin
want to come back to Thailand
But the red shirts scattered in different directions.
Causing the power of the Red Shirts to recede considerably
Or an opportunity for Thaksin to return from the Pheu Thai Party
Won the election by a majority
it may be possible
Because politics and law go the same way.
But if the amnesty law is issued
will make the coup come back again
There will be demonstrations on the streets.
"Political Union It is not at all that Thaksin returned with impunity. but should be punished will have a balance But in the end, Thaksin will not accept the penalty and announcing wanting to go home It just came into a symbolic political role. creates political discourse only during elections.”
Thaksin as Prime Minister
popular with the public
"Pheua Thailand Slide" Thaksin's discourse is not magical enough
When looking at the possibility that the Pheu Thai Party
Will land slide in this election would be difficult.
and asked what was the essence of the land slide
How many MPs do I need to get to be called a land slide?
If you go back to the 2005 elections where the Thai Rak Thai party won the election by a landslide.
Until being able to form a government with only one party
That's a real land slide.
not creating a flow
to create popularity
and land slide
must have the most votes, 360 seats or more
More than half of the 700 because the vote of the senator must be included in the Prime Minister's vote.
“Asking if Pheu Thai will get 360 seats or not would be difficult. because there is a divider from the far-reaching party And this election, there are more than 4 million youths who have the right to vote will be an important variable. may vote to advance including the progressive middle class Therefore, Thaksin Coming out to create a trend may not help much. Makes the land slide of Pheu Thai difficult to happen, estimated that it should get 250 seats or more, possibly, but not more than 300 seats.
Election 2005, although the Thai Rak Thai Party
or Pheu Thai Party at present
able to penetrate the northeastern region
But this election in the northeastern region
Belongs to Bhumjaithai Party
But now being discredited for marijuana
Does not specify the scope of use
until it becomes a flaw
May cause the seat in the northeastern region to disappear quite a bit
But Thaksin's move
Announcing that he wanted to return home was unlikely to help the Pheu Thai Party in the election.
But the capital system can be created through Settha Thavisin, a candidate for Prime Minister.
another member of the Pheu Thai Party
Srettha Thavisin-Paethongtarn Shinawatra will lead the Pheu Thai Party
Win the election?
What is the secret deal?
About the future after the election on May 14
In the case of Thaksin repeatedly announced his return home
viewed that the longer he spoke, the worse it was, as if he was flirting with the public
If you really want to go back to Thailand, you must clearly state.
In addition, there are people who are anti-Thaksin.
Therefore, trying to spread the message to the people
The issue must be clearly separated.
because there are many levels of people may make some people believe
But in the end, Thaksin
There is no way to enter the prison.
The secret deal
It is a trend in the election process.
must be separated from Thaksin's return home
But it's more likely to form a government.
to pave the way for the future
Assess that the Pheu Thai Party
even though the majority
but cannot form a single-party government
Like the Thai Rak Thai Party won the election in 2005, it may have to rely on General Prawit Wongsuwan, leader of the Palang Pracharat Party.
help negotiate with Bhumjaithai Party
join the government
Which Thai politics will be, must follow the election on May 14, 2023, and Gen. Prayut Chan-o-cha may have to close the political scene.
If the Ruam Thai Sang Chart Party wins the seats of MPs, it does not meet its target.