The intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Great Britain believes that the Russian troops have begun to attack in the direction of Luhansk in the area of ​​Swatovo and Kramennaya with the intention of regaining control over Kupyansk in the Kharkiv region, where an important logistical, logistical and technical hub is located.

Swatava, Luhansk region, is 60 kilometers from Kupyansk, Kharkiv region, and 50 kilometers from Kupyansk to the border with Belgorod region of Russia.

The Russians captured Kupyansk in the Kharkiv region in the first days of the invasion.

Ukraine liberated the city in September 2022.

Since then, Russia has been shelling Kupyansk almost every day

"Since the beginning of March 2023, heavy fighting has been going on in sections of the Swatava-Kramiannaya front line in the north of the Luhansk region.

Russia has partially regained control over the direct approaches to the city of Kremennaya, where at the beginning of the year it was threatened by Ukrainian troops," British intelligence officers note.

According to them, Russian troops have advanced several kilometers in some places, and their command is trying to expand the security zone near their defense line and integrate into it a natural obstacle, which is the Askol River.

"Presumably, they are trying to return Kupyansk, a logistics hub," British intelligence believes.

At the same time, British intelligence officers point out that in the operational plan, Russia is building defenses because it is afraid that Ukraine will launch a large-scale offensive operation in this sector.

Institute for the study of war: Russia does not have enough forces to carry out a large-scale offensive

Experts from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted that the pace of Russian operations around Bakhmut is slowing down, as Russia is shifting its units in other directions.

"Now the Russian troops are increasing the pace of offensive operations around Avdeyevka in order to surround it, and it is possible that the Russian troops are doing this at the expense of the operations around Bakhmut and the halted offensive near Uglyadar," the ISW report notes.

Experts believe that it is unlikely that the Russian offensive could push Ukrainian forces to leave Bakhmut and Avdeyevka.

Avdeivka, Donetsk region.

March 10, 2023

"Russian forces may launch or intensify offensive operations in new directions, but these operations are unlikely to produce tangible results as the overall Russian spring offensive continues to reach its climax," the Institute for the Study of War report noted.

In Ukraine, they promise an offensive

The Commander of the Ground Forces of Ukraine ,

Alexander Syrsky

, assessing the battles in the Bakhmut direction, said that the main Russian forces, which are units of the private military company "Wagner", are "exhaling".

"Very soon we will use this opportunity, as we used to do it near Kiev, Kharkiv, Balakleia and Kupyansk," said Alexander Syrsky.

Commander of the Ground Forces of Ukraine Alexander Syrsky in Liman, Donetsk Region, October 4, 2022

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that over the past few days, the Ukrainian army repelled 83 Russian attacks in the Liman, Bakhmut, Udzeiv, and Shakhtar directions.

The Ministry of Defense of Russia assures that the Ukrainian counterattacks in the eastern direction were "unsuccessful".

Russia's war against Ukraine

  • At 5 o'clock in the morning on February 24, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the start of a military operation against Ukraine in the Donbass at the request of the "DPR" and "LPR" groups.

    On February 21, during a televised address to Russians, Putin called the so-called "DPR" and "LPR" independent states within the regions.

    On February 22, the Federation Council ratified this decision.

  • Russian troops attacked, including from the territory of Belarus, using airfields, bases and roads.

    Representatives of Lukashenka's regime justify the war, his opponents consider the territory of Belarus to be occupied, many call for resistance to the Russian invaders.

  • In 2022, 19 Belarusians were killed in Ukraine fighting for its independence.

    It is known about two Belarusian soldiers who were captured by the Russians.

  • On March 30, the UN approved the composition of an independent commission that will investigate Russian war crimes in Ukraine.

    It included people who worked in the analysis of the genocide in Rwanda and Bosnia and Herzegovina.

  • Contrary to Putin's statements about attacks only on military facilities, the Russians are bombing schools, kindergartens and residential areas of Ukrainian cities.

    The Russians are using banned weapons, including cluster bombs, against civilians.

  • On April 2, after the liberation of the town of Bucha near Kyiv, photojournalists published dozens of photographs showing hundreds of dead people, victims of mass murders committed by Russian troops.

    Many are buried in spontaneous mass graves.

    The Russian occupation also brought great destruction to the people of Barodyan.

    It is also known about a number of rapes, including babies.

  • On May 9, the US President signed the Land Leasing Law.

    This law restores the program from the Second World War, which will speed up the supply of weapons to Ukraine and increase the amount of such assistance.

  • On July 29, as a result of an attack on the colony in Alenivka, at least 53 Ukrainian prisoners who defended the Azovstal plant in Mariupol and surrendered after completing their combat mission were killed.

    The Russians accused Ukraine of the attack, the Ukrainian side declared that the prisoners were deliberately killed by the Russian side.

    The Russian occupation authorities prevented the UN and Red Cross missions from entering Alenavka.

  • During the six months of the war, Russia was able to occupy about 20% of the Ukrainian territory.

    In March, the area of ​​occupied land reached 30%.

    However, at the end of the month, Russian troops retreated from the north of Ukraine, as well as from most of the Kharkiv region.

    At the end of August, the Crimea, Luhansk and Kherson regions were completely occupied.

    And also 50% of the territory of the Donetsk region, about 70% of the Zaporizhia region, approximately 30% of the Kharkiv region.

  • Since February 24, Russia has captured only one regional center - Kherson.

    Russian troops retreated from it and from the right-bank part of the Kherson region in November 2022.

    The city was occupied by Russian troops in the first days of the war without actually fighting.

    Kyiv suspects part of the former leadership of Kherson and the region of treason.

    The former head of the SBU of the Kharkiv region was also detained on such suspicion.

  • In September, Ukrainian troops launched a large-scale counteroffensive, as a result of which Russian forces began to rapidly flee from their positions in the Kharkiv region.

  • On September 21, Putin announced the mobilization in Russia.

    After this statement, thousands of Russians went to the border crossings and began to leave for Georgia, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Mongolia, Finland and other countries.

    In Russia itself, opponents of the war set fire to several military units.

    Even people without military experience began to be conscripted into the army, despite promises that only experienced ones would go to war.

    The mobilization of men into the Russian army also takes place in the occupied territories of Ukraine.

  • On October 2, Putin submitted a bill to the Russian parliament, which is an attempt to annex parts of four regions of Ukraine.

    Two new republics - "LPR" and "DNR" - and two regions - Zaporizhia and Kherson will be part of Russia.

    But thanks to the counteroffensive of the Ukrainians, the borders drawn in Moscow are not fully controlled by the occupying forces.

  • In October, Ukrainian troops successfully continued their counteroffensive, at the beginning of October they liberated Liman and Yampal, as well as significantly approached Svatov in the Luhansk region, and from there the way to Severodanetsk and Lysichansk opens.

  • On the morning of October 10, the Russians began intensive shelling of Ukrainian territory, including the center of Kyiv.

    Rockets also reached Lviv, depriving the city of electricity.

    Since then, Russia has carried out about 10 missile attacks on infrastructure facilities and other civilian targets on the territory of Ukraine.

  • On October 10, Lukashenka held a meeting with the Security Council and announced the deployment of a joint grouping of troops with Putin.

  • On the evening of November 15, Russia fired 100 missiles across the territory of Ukraine, primarily at energy facilities, and in Poland, two missiles fell in the village of Przewodau, 6 km from the border with Ukraine, killing two people.

    The Polish authorities summoned the Russian ambassador for explanations.

    Then it turned out that this was probably the result of the work of the Ukrainian Air Force, which shot down a Russian missile.

  • In November, with the onset of cold weather, Russia intensified its missile attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure.

    As a result, many Ukrainian cities and part of Moldova were left without electricity and water.

    Ukraine called an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council.

  • On January 1, 2023, the Department of Strategic Communications of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported the death of almost 400 Russians during the attack on the building of the Polytechnic School No. 19 in Makeyevka.

    Russian soldiers were there and mobilized.

    The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation recognized 89 killed.

  • On January 14, 2023, as a result of another shelling, a Russian missile hit a high-rise building in the city of Dnipro, killing and injuring dozens of people.

    The rescue operation to find the bodies stretched for several days.

  • In February, they take place for Bakhmut, Kramyannaya, Svatava.

    However, US intelligence noted that the Russians do not have enough potential for a full-scale offensive, and the British Ministry of Defense said that the Russians suffered the biggest losses in the year in the first half of February.

  • Independent verification of information about military actions provided by officials of various parties is still impossible.