The GUIDANCE national survey, in the first week of the election campaign for the parliamentary elections on April 2, outlines the following trends:

Voter turnout about 46% of voters who have the right to vote and live in Bulgaria

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The expectations are that about 2 million 700 thousand will go to the electoral sections, which is slightly more compared to the last early parliamentary elections (October 2022).

At this stage, however, it is too early to say whether the campaign will succeed in increasing turnout, or on the contrary, negativism and the lack of clear management perspectives will turn away some of the voters.

The results show that so far, the campaign does not increase the desire to participate in the elections, nor significantly supports the choice of Bulgarians for whom to vote.

Only 4% of those interviewed have changed their mind about who to vote for since the start of the campaign.

Political scientist: The parity between GERB and PP-DB makes the elections difficult to predict

Nearly a fifth (17.4%) of those who decided to vote are still vacillating between two or more parties.

Most often, voters are torn between support for the party they voted for in the previous election and another political force.

As in the past two years (2021 and 2022), we are registering a high degree of electoral mobility, as a result of frustration with the many failed attempts to produce a regular government and lead the country out of the political crisis.

Electoral mobility is a factor that leads to a real possibility of shifting positions between the parties at the top of the "electoral ranking", and until election day itself.

Ten days after the start of the election campaign, the intrigue for the first place remains.

Among those who firmly decided to vote, GERB-SDS (with 24.8%) has a minimal lead of 0.7% over its main opponent "Continuing the Change-Democratic Bulgaria" (with 24.1%).

The activity

In the first week after the start of the election campaign for the 49th National Assembly, 46.4% of those interviewed in the national survey of the sociological agency NASOKA stated that they would certainly vote in the early parliamentary elections on April 2, 2023.

33.7% declare that they will certainly not vote, 9.8% indicate that they are hesitant about whom to vote for, and 10.1% - that they are hesitant whether to vote.

Men, highly educated respondents, the wealthy, residents of regional towns and villages in the country, as well as people between the ages of 50 and 59, more often state strong intentions to vote.

Currently, the most mobilized to vote in the upcoming early parliamentary elections are the electorates of DPS and GERB-SDS.

Equal shares of 97% of GERB-SDS and DPS voters say that they will certainly vote on April 2, while among the electorate of the PP-DB coalition this share is lower and amounts to 92%.

The weaker mobilization of the electorate of the PP-DB, compared to that of the GERB-SDS in the first ten days of the nods, can also be judged from the answers to the question "Would you indicate the probability with which you will vote for your preferred party/coalition in percentage expression?”.

71% of those who indicated that they would vote for GERB-SDS stated that the probability of doing so was 100%, while among the PP-DB electorate this share amounted to 68%.

Based on the stated probability of support, the DPS electorate is the most mobilized - 78% of the movement's voters indicate that they will vote for the DPS with a 100% probability, and the voters of the small parties, who have no chance of entry, are the least mobilized in the parliament.

Electoral attitudes

Data from the national GUIDANCE survey shows that the two leading political forces are extremely close, and with the expected turnout, it is possible that a relatively small number of votes could lead to a shift at the top.

On a direct election question "Which party/coalition will you vote for in the parliamentary elections on April 2 of this year?", after indicating the list of candidates for which you will vote, the coalition Continuing the Change-Democratic Bulgaria has a minimal lead of 0.6% over its main opponent GERB-SDS.

For the PP-DB coalition, 27% of all those who indicated the name of a party/coalition for which they will vote will vote, and for GERB-SDS – 26.4%.

However, among voters who say they will definitely vote, GERB-SDS leads by a minimal margin over PP-DB.

Among those who firmly decided to vote, the GERB-SDS coalition received 24.8% of the votes, and the PP-DB coalition was at a minimal distance of 0.7% with 24.1%.

There is also an intrigue for the third place, for which DPS and Vazrazhdane are arguing.

The two formations have close electoral shares - DPS with 13.2% and DPS with 12.2%.

The intrigue is further complicated by the fact that a significant part of the vote abroad (which cannot be counted in a sociological way) is directed precisely in favor of these two political forces.

In fifth position is the BSP with 6.2% of those who firmly decided to vote.

Bulgarians rose by 4.3%.

The remaining political forces currently have low chances of representation in the 49th National Assembly.

The closest to the 4 percent barrier are the Left with 3.1% and ITN with 3%.

The other political formations that participate in the vote collect a total of 4.4%.

have low chances of representation in the 49th National Assembly.

The closest to the 4 percent barrier are the Left with 3.1% and ITN with 3%.

The other political formations that participate in the vote collect a total of 4.4%.

have low chances of representation in the 49th National Assembly.

The closest to the 4 percent barrier are the Left with 3.1% and ITN with 3%.

The other political formations that participate in the vote collect a total of 4.4%.

3.6% of those who decided to vote indicate that on April 2 they will mark "I do not support anyone" in the integral ballot.

Their share is taken into account in the calculation of voter turnout, but does not participate in the distribution of election results and therefore is not presented in the graph with electoral attitudes.

The option "I do not support anyone" is preferred more often by men, by residents of the capital, as well as by people who, in principle, hesitate whether to vote at all.

The socio-demographic profile of GERB-SDS voters shows that preferences for this formation are more typical for women, for people between the ages of 30 and 39, for wealthy respondents, as well as for residents of regional centers and smaller cities in the country.

Intentions to vote in favor of the coalition We continue the change - Democratic Bulgaria are more pronounced among people under the age of 40, among highly educated respondents, as well as among residents of the capital.

DPS receives support more often from people over the age of 50, from respondents with primary and lower education, from poor people (living with great material deprivation) and from rural residents.

The electoral influence of DPS in the villages is stable and distinct.

Revival receives twice as much support from men as from women.

People between the ages of 18 and 29, as well as residents of small towns, are more likely to say that they will vote for them.

Women, people over the age of 60, with a below-average standard of living, as well as residents of smaller towns and villages are more often defined as BSP voters.

Bulgarian Rise has more voters among men, among the age group 40-49 and among people over 60, as well as among the country's urban population.

Among the people who are still undecided about which party/coalition to vote for, women and people between the ages of 50 and 59 are more likely to be found.

Nearly three-quarters (74%) of those who voted for GERB-SDS in the previous elections (October 2, 2022) indicate that they will vote for this coalition again in the upcoming vote.

GERB-SDS are losing positions in Sofia and in some regional cities (where the competition with PP-DB is particularly strong), but their supporters are currently more mobilized than those of their main opponent PP-DB.

Two-thirds (65.7%) of those who voted five months ago for Continuing the change and slightly more than three-quarters (75.5%) of the former voters of Democratic Bulgaria in the upcoming vote will vote for the new coalition PP-DB.

The newly formed coalition PP-DB attracts votes from the former voters of ITN, as well as from the other smaller formations of the so-called

"parties of the protest".

DPS has retained the highest share of its former voters.

88% of those who voted for them in October

say they will support them again.

Vazrajdane stands out as one of the few formations that have mobilized support in their favor in the period since October last year.

The BSP is in a radically different situation, where even at this early stage a decline in electoral support is reported.

The internal contradictions from the BSP congress last month and the conflicts after it lead to an outflow of supporters who are reorienting themselves in different directions.

With its appearance, the Left deepened the erosion in the electoral share of the socialist party.

Vazrazhdane can count on 80.7% of the vote of those who previously voted for the formation, and BSP - on only half of its former voters.

A part (about 10%) of those who previously voted for the socialist party reorient themselves towards the Left, others (smaller shares) - towards Revival and Bulgarian Vishkod, and about a quarter are hesitating and have not yet decided who to vote for April 2.

For Bulgarian Rise, they say that approximately half of their voters will vote from October 2 of this year, with the formation attracting votes from former voters of ITN, BSP and those who did not vote in the previous vote.

Attitudes towards voting

One of the questions that excites us as researchers of public attitudes after the recent changes in the electoral legislation made by the 48th National Assembly is what proportion of people approve of the return of mixed voting - machine and paper ballot.

Data from the GUIDANCE national survey shows that this is another issue that divides society.

41% of those interviewed approve of the return of mixed voting, and 39% do not approve of it, as they see it as a retreat from the measures that guarantee the fairness of the vote.

The greatest number of supporters of the return of mixed voting (and respectively of the paper ballot) are among the voters of GERB-SDS (65%), DPS (64%), ITN (58%), as well as BSP and the Left (by 53%).

On the opposite pole are the PP-DB voters, where disapproval of the return of mixed voting amounts to 63%.

However, people's specific intentions about how they will vote in the upcoming elections are a more eloquent indicator of how this next change in the election rules is accepted by the public.

Asked "How will you vote in the April 2 election - machine or paper ballot?", nearly two-thirds (64%) of those intending to vote said they would vote by machine, while only a quarter of voters who would go to sectionals on April 2.

The remaining 11% have not yet decided how they will vote.

Voting by machine is more preferred by the voters of PP-DB (88%), Vazrazhdane (73%), Bulgarian Vozhod (70%), as well as GERB-SDS (59%), while the ballot by DPS voters and the BSP indicate that they intend to vote with a paper ballot.

The election campaign

How much does election campaigning affect voting intentions?

We measure the effect of the election campaign by asking what proportion of voters changed their decision for whom to vote for in the first ten days after the start of the campaign on March 3.

Overall, the campaign has so far influenced 4.3% of respondents.

Young people between the ages of 18 and 29 and residents of regional cities are more often found among them.

8% of the voters of Vazrazhdane, 5% of the electorate of Bulgarian Rise, as well as equal shares of 4% each of the voters of PP-DB and GERB-SDS state that they made their decision to support these formations precisely as a result of the of them election campaign so far.

The research of the sociological agency NASOKA registered an increased interest in the measures that guarantee the fairness of the vote.

55% of those interviewed indicated that this topic excites them.

The actions of the caretaker government against vote-buying and to prevent electoral manipulations receive wide media coverage and reasonably find an echo in public attitudes as well.

This topic arouses the greatest attention among the voters of Vazrazhdane and the coalition We continue the change-Democratic Bulgaria, among men, among highly educated respondents and among residents of the capital.

53% of our compatriots are interested in the candidates for people's representatives on the lists of parties and coalitions.

The media debates between the candidates for people's representatives arouse the interest of 48.4% of the adult population of the country.

The shares of voters who show interest in the programs of the political forces and in their messages to the voters are approximately equal (45.4% and 46.4%, respectively).

The fact that on April 2 the fifth consecutive parliamentary elections within two years are coming, leads to a decline in the interest in the media participation of the representatives of the parties and coalitions, as well as in the organization of the vote by the CEC.

The motivation for voting

Family and national values ​​are stronger voting factors than personal value.

Before the choice to determine what they are voting for - for their own future, for the future of their children, for Bulgaria or to express dissatisfaction and disagreement (including so that a party/coalition they don't like is not governed), equal shares - from 26% each - state that they are voting for the future of their children and for Bulgaria, while only 15% of respondents indicate that they are voting for their own future.

The negative motivation – the protest vote is characteristic of only 8% of the interviewees.

We register such motivation more often among men (one tenth of them), among people aged between 50 and 59 (13% of them), as well as among residents of the capital (12% of them).

A third of the people who indicate that in the upcoming parliamentary elections they will vote with "I do not support anyone" state that they vote in this way to express dissatisfaction and disagreement (including so that a party or coalition that does not Such motivation is most often found among the voters of BSP, ITN and Vazrazhdane.

The future of children is a leading motive for voting among voters of DPS (49%), Bulgarian Rise (46%), PP-DB (39%) and GERB-SDS (36%).

Among the voters of the Left, Vazrazhdane and the BSP, the dominant attitude is "I vote for Bulgaria", while for the voters of ITN, the most characteristic position is "I vote for my own future".

Attitudes towards the future governing coalition

The answer to the question "What kind of government is possible after the elections?" is painfully on the agenda in the 2023 campaign as well. Disappointment with the impossibility to form and broadcast a working government, together with the lack of clear governance alternatives, is unsettling Bulgarian voters and leading to refusal to vote .

Most political formations are losing voters, and the vote for the leading political forces is in a narrow range in which they could trade positions.

Against this background, Bulgarians remain polarized on the key topic of which formations should participate in the future governing coalition.

Close shares of one-third approve the participation of GERB-SDS in the next regular government (34.5%) and the PP-DB coalition (33.5%).

These positions, however, are shared by different groups of voters, who clearly oppose each other and reject each other.

Only 9% of GERB-SDS voters approve of PP-DB's participation in the next regular government, against 87% who disapprove.

PP-DB voters are a little more tolerant - 16% of them approve of the participation of their opponent GERB-SDS in the next regular cabinet, against 82% who do not approve.

We register the highest acceptability and at the same time the lowest resistance to the potential participation of Bulgarian Rise in the next regular government.

43.4% approve the participation of Stefan Yanev's formation in the next regular cabinet, and those who disapprove of such a prospect are 31.2%.

At the opposite pole is the attitude towards DPS.

Only 26% approve of the participation of the movement in the next regular government, against 62.7% who are against such a possibility.

Registration method: direct standardized face-to-face interview (PAPI)

Sampling methodology: Quota sampling with a volume of 1200 respondents, implemented in several steps.

Quotas are calculated based on 2021 Census data.

The respondents are distributed in proportion to the size of the settlements, in nests of approximately equal volume.

Settlements are typologically divided into three categories: regional centers, other towns and villages.

The settlements and the number of nests in them are determined, in proportion to the number of voters (aged +18).

In the sample, the district centers are first fixed, and then the small towns and villages in the respective district are randomly selected.

Inside each nest, the gender-age distribution is balanced, according to the NSI data from the last census.

The sample reproduces the structure of the population by place of residence, sex and age.

Fieldwork period: March 7 – 14, 2023.

The current national survey was financed and implemented jointly by "Boulevard Bulgaria" and sociological agency NASOKA.

The research was conducted in the period March 7-14, 2023, among 1,200 adult Bulgarian citizens from all over the country.

Quota sampling implemented in several steps was used.

Quotas are calculated based on data from the 2021 census. Respondents are distributed in proportion to the size of the settlements, in nests of approximately equal volume.

Settlements are typologically divided into three categories: regional centers, other towns and villages.

The settlements and the number of nests in them are determined, in proportion to the number of voters (aged +18).

In the sample, the district centers are first fixed, and then the small towns and villages in the respective district are randomly selected.

Inside each nest, the gender-age distribution is balanced, according to the NSI data from the last census.

The sample thus constructed reproduces the structure of the population by place of residence, sex and age.

The information was collected through a direct standardized face-to-face interview (PAPI) at the homes of the interviewees.

GUIDANCE conducts its national surveys on the territory of Bulgaria.

The figures do not include the out-of-state vote.

According to Art.

205 (paragraphs 1 - 4) of the Election Code, any media that uses data from this survey is obliged to report the information from this box.