Kotov expresses the opinion that Minsk is now afraid of a radical escalation in relations with the West.

• What happened in Hrodna has 97 percent nothing to do with terrorists or extremists.

• To believe in the official version means to admit the presence of huge holes in what is called "national security".

• According to the authorities, Belarusians have no right to be dissatisfied.

• Security forces know that there is no one to replace them - that's why instead of punishment for failures, they are rewarded.

• Lukashenka does not want to fight in Ukraine, he wants to pay off Moscow with a little blood.

— What are the first conclusions that can be drawn from today's meeting between Lukashenka and the security forces?

What was it for?

What was the background of the incident in Hrodna, where, according to official sources, the security forces eliminated a mysterious terrorist with a fake Russian passport?

- What happened in Hrodna has 97 percent nothing to do with terrorists, extremists and so on.

These are some internal processes, showdowns of security forces, as a result of which a foreign citizen was killed.

In a certain sense, this is what once happened in Belarus, when different departments clashed with each other for control over the territory and businesses.

As a result of these confrontations, a foreign citizen died, and this had to be explained somehow.

The easiest thing is to declare him a terrorist, an extremist, because he will not say anything in his defense.

The meeting was necessary, because it is necessary to somehow curb these dangerous tendencies within the system, discussions between our own, to find some kind of balance.

- What do we see, according to the official version?

Some terrorist calmly crossed the border with a forged passport, entered Belarus, brought with him or found a whole arsenal of weapons in Belarus.

And all this happened not in some village on the border with Ukraine, but in an important regional center, in Hrodna.

To believe in the official version means to admit the presence of huge holes in what is called "national security".

This simply proves that the regime's version is a complete fake, which simply distracts attention from reality, and on the other hand, creates a basis for rewarding those who in a normal state should be dismissed from their positions or put on trial.

- Official propaganda usually combines two narratives - there is a foreign terrorist and there are Belarusians who help him (as in Machulyshchy).

They don't want to admit that the Belarusians are doing it themselves, without a foreign agent.

And we don't want to admit that a foreign agent is acting without the help of "locals", because we need to continue the repression.

- Yes, they are trying to create some "comfortable" propaganda scheme for the regime.

It is more difficult for Belarusians to admit that they themselves may be dissatisfied with the regime than in 2020, when there were a lot of these people.

And now they supposedly cleared everyone, but for some reason the Belarusians did not calm down.

But, according to the authorities, Belarusians have no right to be dissatisfied.

This, by the way, is almost a quote from Natalya Kachanova, who said at some meeting in 2020: "I don't understand how you can be dissatisfied."

And if it turns out that Belarusians are dissatisfied, then someone is inciting them from the side.

But it seems that something is broken in this scheme now.

Because if this "terrorist" in Hrodna was a citizen of Ukraine or Poland, it would be easy for the authorities to blame these countries.

But some games started with the fake Russian passport of the "terrorist", the real nationality of the murdered person is not known.

I have certain information that he is a citizen of one of the Western European countries.

Not Lithuania or Poland.

And this is unpleasant for the regime, because there, in Western Europe, they are afraid to look for and "find" enemies.

— At the same meeting, the Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs Kazakevich states that an "attack of extremism" has engulfed Belarus in 2020, that it is thousands of people.

Is there an impression that the security forces in Belarus have gained too much weight in the state apparatus?

Lukashenka still controls them - or can he no longer restrain the growth of their role?

- For the security forces, the clearing on which they used to "graze" is getting very narrow.

Firstly, they always received buns from the regime, secondly, they were fed at the expense of business.

And now the regime has obvious problems in the budget.

On the other hand, many entrepreneurs left, many businesses were closed.

Before 2010, certain borders and spheres were divided, but now all this is narrowing.

And, on the one hand, the security forces need to continue to emphasize their importance for the regime, to identify extremists, for example, among Gestalt therapists.

And on the other hand, you need to find money for your own existence.

Therefore, interdepartmental conflicts are inevitable.

Such things happened in the late 1990s, when the KGB was actively conflicting with the Ministry of Internal Affairs, and almost random people were sometimes imprisoned through such discussions.

At a certain time, it was possible to silence this rivalry, because there were many businesses that could be milked.

Now this glade is narrowing, and internal competition and conflicts "over the division of the territory" are emerging.

Security forces know that there is no one to replace them - that's why instead of punishment for failures, they are rewarded.

— Lukashenka still controls their relations with each other.

Today's meeting was dedicated to how to curb the ambitions of certain groups so that they don't banally kill each other.

- If the authorities wanted, they could call the killed "terrorist" a citizen of Poland or Ukraine in order to further inflame enmity in relations with these countries.

It seems that now the official Minsk does not do this, because in reality it does not want a real escalation on the foreign front.

— Yes, Minsk does not need a radical aggravation now.

Lukashenka does not want to fight in Ukraine, he wants to pay off Moscow with a little blood - bases, training, repair of weapons.

In addition, it is quite difficult to make such a staging, to present someone to the citizens of Ukraine.

The technology for exposing such fakes is quite advanced: "Yarash's business card" no longer works, it will be refuted in an hour or two.

And Minsk does not want to provoke a more serious conflict with the West.

If it was really a citizen of Poland, Ukraine or Lithuania, all this would have been announced long ago and smeared with propaganda.

After all, these are the current main enemies of official Minsk.

That's why it's easier for them to write everything off as abstract "fugitives", without mentioning their names and citizenship.

• Vitaly Tsygankov

  Vitaly Tsygankov graduated from the Faculty of Journalism of BSU.

  One of the two founders of the first non-governmental news agency BelaPAN.

  He worked in "Zvyazda" newspapers, was a correspondent in Belarus of the Russian "Nezavisimaya Gazeta", Associated Press, columnist in "Svaboda" newspaper.

  On Belarusian Freedom since 1994.

  Correspondent of Russian Freedom in Belarus.

  
  

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