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Will there be a way out of the political crisis after April 2 or are we headed for new elections in the fall, is a compromise coalition possible for the sake of the country's stability, where are we going?

Novini.bg sought an answer to these questions from political scientist Dr. Teodora Yovcheva.

Are surprises possible at the April 2nd vote?

Who will be the big winner?

Surprises are possible.

There are several moments that can bring them up - who will be first and whether there will be 5 formations or whether any of the parties close to the line will cross the electoral threshold.

The question is whether first place in the election will in itself provide an advantage in forming a cabinet.

Given the minimal differences between the former and the latter, this does not seem likely.

If we talk about victory for the formations themselves, it will be an achievement to what extent they can tighten and count their ranks due to electoral exhaustion.

Although the organizational power of older parties such as GERB and DPS is often mentioned, it is already seen that new formations such as PP and DB succeed in consistently mobilizing their voters.

From this point of view, the victory for the formations will be "internal", a test of their mobilization potential.

Political scientist: There is a chance for a cabinet

Do you expect record low voter turnout in this election and what sign will that be?

A sign of low legitimacy of the elected, and hence of a possible cabinet.

A sign that citizens are withdrawing from the usual forms of political participation such as elections.

It can be seen that recently citizens prefer protests as a form of participation.

However, it is not enough, because although they have the power to change, they do not lead to the formation of a government, and participation in elections is also necessary.

Will there be chaos with the organization of the elections and their conduct because of the new changes in the Electoral Code?

There will certainly be a difficulty for the people in the committees, but after all, for many years voting was with paper ballots and machines, so there should be a built-in routine among the more experienced members of the SEC.

What are the chances of a cabinet after the vote and what will be the consequences if it doesn't happen?

Not particularly big.

Opposition has not abated.

Potential support for the two opponents has not collapsed to strongly motivate anyone to support a cabinet, as the ITN did after the November 2021 elections. In July they had a spectacular success as a new party, only to collapse after a few months.

This motivates them to finally enter management.

So far, such a scenario is not visible to the main forces in these elections, in this sense they have no reason for such a move.

Moreover, for the PP-DB camp, "jumping" the line of opposition could mean the collapse of the upcoming local elections, in which they have a very serious chance for the capital and other big cities.

So local elections are also a factor to be taken into account.

The big question is what GERB will calculate - whether it will support the PP-DB cabinet or not.

Here comes the question of first place.

If PP-DB are first, in my opinion, GERB have a stronger argument to support such a government, because the first won in the end.

Against the background of the theses of the need for stability and electoral exhaustion, such an option is admissible, although unlikely.

Of course, there is a very high chance that GERB-SDS will not support such a cabinet.

On the other hand, if GERB-SDS are first and their cabinet is not supported, then they would have less incentive to support the opponent.

But there is one peculiarity here - would it not be more profitable for GERB to influence the legislation of the cabinet through its parliamentary support and to declare itself as the responsible force.

The choice for the leadership of GERB will be strategic.

because the first one won in the end.

Against the background of the theses of the need for stability and electoral exhaustion, such an option is admissible, although unlikely.

Of course, there is a very high chance that GERB-SDS will not support such a cabinet.

On the other hand, if GERB-SDS are first and their cabinet is not supported, then they would have less incentive to support the opponent.

But there is one peculiarity here - would it not be more profitable for GERB to influence the legislation of the cabinet through its parliamentary support and to declare itself as the responsible force.

The choice for the leadership of GERB will be strategic.

because the first one won in the end.

Against the background of the theses of the need for stability and electoral exhaustion, such an option is admissible, although unlikely.

Of course, there is a very high chance that GERB-SDS will not support such a cabinet.

On the other hand, if GERB-SDS are first and their cabinet is not supported, then they would have less incentive to support the opponent.

But there is one peculiarity here - would it not be more profitable for GERB to influence the legislation of the cabinet through its parliamentary support and to declare itself as the responsible force.

The choice for the leadership of GERB will be strategic.

if GERB-SDS are first and their cabinet is not supported, then they would have less incentive to support the opponent.

But there is one peculiarity here - would it not be more profitable for GERB to influence the legislation of the cabinet through its parliamentary support and to declare itself as the responsible force.

The choice for the leadership of GERB will be strategic.

if GERB-SDS are first and their cabinet is not supported, then they would have less incentive to support the opponent.

But there is one peculiarity here - would it not be more profitable for GERB to influence the legislation of the cabinet through its parliamentary support and to declare itself as the responsible force.

The choice for the leadership of GERB will be strategic.

Which coalition option would be the most useful for the country (based on preliminary sociological research on voter attitudes)?

Yes, there is a need to renew the image of the parties.

In recent years, they have been associated with patronage, framing, buying votes, corruption, dependence on businesses.

It is no coincidence that trust in them is critically low - 80% declare that they do not trust political parties, according to data from an "Open Society" report.

At the same time, we must not forget that modern democracy, the one achieved after the ruins of the Second World War, is precisely thanks to political parties.

It is no coincidence that the political scientist Schatschneider says that political parties create democracy and modern democracy is unthinkable without parties.

This historical role of the parties should not be overlooked when we talk about the crisis in them and low trust.

Considering their role in the past could provide new impetus and direction for their renewal towards more accountability,

Is there a need for radical change within political parties to match their messages to the wishes of voters?

Yes, because parties have largely become governance organizations and neglected the connection with citizens.

Let us not forget that one of the main functions of parties is to represent the citizens.

However, it has been in the background in recent years as opposed to the period when they arose.

Of course, the conditions in which parties operate are also very different.

Television, social media, "quick" information pose new challenges to them.

However, with a good strategy, these challenges can be turned into opportunities.

One of the possible changes is, for example, through the new means of communication, to have a stronger dialogue with the citizens, a faster connection with the representatives at different levels - municipal, national, European.

Political scientist: There will be intrigues not only for the first place

Are we headed for a change in the political system if this election of a regular government also fails?

Attempts are being made in this direction, but for now constitutional obstacles prevail.

If it's a regime change, it doesn't seem likely in the near term.

However, these sentiments will intensify if the parties do not find a way to dialogue.

political scientist Teodora Yovcheva

early parliamentary elections