Doctor of Political Sciences, researcher at the Free University of Berlin Siarhei Bohdan answers

these questions

— Alyaksandr Lukashenka visited Iran.

According to the results of the trip, he declared about "overcoming the pause in relations".

And what are the motives of this overcoming?

Why, why did Lukashenka go to Iran?

- This should be considered in the context of the integration of Iran and Belarus into the China-centric world.

Lukashenko was recently in China.

Regarding Iran, this is Chinese mediation in the reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

This is a revolutionary event for the geopolitics of the Middle East.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi emphasizes that part of the contacts between Tehran and Minsk must take place through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which is primarily a Beijing project.

- President Raisi directly said that Iran is ready to share its experience of resisting sanctions with Belarus.

Lukashenko expressed his respect for Iran because the latter "resists external pressure, attempts to impose someone else's will."

"And as we decided today with the president of Iran, we can be very useful to each other if we really join our efforts," he said.

How can they join forces in resisting sanctions?

And another maxim of Lukashenka is "Sanctions are a time of opportunity."

Which ones?

- Sanctions are really reshaping the picture of the world for any business entity in Belarus.

In recent years, strong sanctions have been imposed on Belarus, in fact, the country's economic space is being reformatted.

And for Belarus, the importance of imports from Iran is suddenly increasing.

Belarus can sell something there, but it has always been a problem how to get the money out of there and what the consequences might be for trade with Iran.

And now there is nothing to fear the consequences - they have already happened for Belarus in the form of sanctions.

The West achieved what it wanted - to drive all such regimes together.

Why it was done is another question.

As for the calculations, they will probably take place through Russia and China.

I don't expect there to be a huge increase in bilateral trade.

But certain - it will be.

Massive sanctions force to redo what could not be redone for a long time.

Politically and economically, Belarus was very closely connected with the countries of the region and with other European countries.

And this was a guarantee that Minsk would not maintain too close contacts with such an opponent of the West as Iran.

Now this guarantee is gone.

- I note that the West considers its sanctions policy justified and even effective.

Were not ways of circumventing sanctions discussed during Lukashenka's visit to Tehran?

Raisi hinted at this, saying that Iran can share the experience of resisting sanctions.

Bypassing them is one of the ways of this confrontation.

- Probably, yes.

But the cooperation plan includes import substitution.

It should not be forgotten that Iran has advanced quite a lot in some technologies.

And in this sense, he can give something to Belarus both in the form of finished products and in the form of know-how.

Iran has been under heavy sanctions since the 90s, if not the 80s.

If we talk about the import of military technologies, then it is from the mid-80s.

Iran has oil and with its help it can get money.

There is no such product in Belarus for which there is a stable demand.

The West accuses Iran of supplying Russia with weapons.

Iran denies it - but the foreign drones used by Russia are not Azerbaijani, Chinese, or Israeli, but Iranian.

— What could military cooperation between Iran and Belarus consist of?

Is it possible, for example, to assemble Iranian drones in Belarus?

- I don't think so.

For this, the level of trust should be much higher than it is.

Iranian media, covering Lukashenka's visit, emphasize that Belarus is an ally of Russia.

Iran has always had concerns about Russia.

It has always been said that Russia, like Iran, is an opponent of the West, but not too close to Iran.

And the Syrian war showed it.

Every time, the Russian troops there had time to leave the places where Israel struck.

And the Iranian troops are not.

Russia did not consider it necessary to share intelligence information with Iran.

Therefore, the level of trust in Belarus is as low as in Russia.

Iran received drone technology from North Korea through China and from China directly.

They were tested in conflicts in Syria, Yemen, Palestine.

- Can't Belarus be the "corridor" through which these drones can be delivered to places where it is directly inconvenient for Iran to deliver them?

- This is again a question of trust, the level of which is not too high.

Over the past 20 years, Belarus has been called such a "corridor" many times for both Gaddafi and Saddam Hussein.

But these suspicions never came true.

This requires a completely different foreign policy apparatus.

Belarus simply does not have it.

- Lukashenka announced that he will bring contracts worth 100 million dollars from Iran.

This, it seems, is not much.

In 2021, the turnover amounted to only 30 million dollars, last year - 100 million.

According to Belstat data, since 2011, bilateral trade has not exceeded 150 million.

Plus another 100, if Lukashenka really won them in Tehran - this is not a breakthrough, this is not a new level of relations.

Is it new?

- Bilateral relations still cannot take off.

This is already the third attempt to restart these relations.

Lukashenka himself said that we had previously agreed on many things with Iran, but it was not fulfilled.

This is a very common practice in relations with developing countries.

• Yuri Drakakhrust

  Journalist of Radio Svaboda

  
  

  drakakhrusty@rferl.org

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