Crisis, war, conflict

"Between Russia-Ukraine" has been fighting since February 24, 2022, passing into the second year, expanding its influence and affecting the world economy more and more widely.

Because "Russia" is an important exporter of natural resources.

“US sanctions

"War" is an inevitable problem for global trade. Just as "Ukraine" is a major food producer, "war" affects many commodity markets, forming a global production supply chain. until today

Anusorn Thammajai

Product prices on the world market are rising rapidly.

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Anusorn Tamajai,

Member of Pridi Banomyong International College, Thammasat University, Former Honorary Member

National Research Council

Department of Economics reported that

The Russian-Ukrainian war is a cumulative problem from the collapse of the balance of power in NATO, the United States and Russia, because the “region of Europe” is often a member of the United Nations.

“Very small part of the Russian side” There are not many neutral groups, most of them are sympathetic.

"Ukraine is invaded" by this aggressive Russian foreign policy.

In the view of "Russia", the war is the result of

“Western nations” did not adhere to the original agreement after the collapse of the Soviet Union, “expanding their influence and NATO membership to Eastern Europe” until reaching some former Soviet territories.

Using the army to invade Ukrainian territory is only a special military operation.

This is a self-dimensional view of the United Nations General Assembly. 141 nations "condemn Russia's demands to withdraw troops from Ukraine".

“President Joe

U.S. Biden, who visited Ukraine, expressed that the West was ready to defend Russian aggression.

For this reason, the possibility

The "Ukrainian War" will expand to a war in

Europe rises after top-secret visit to Ukraine

"Leader of the United States" before revealing after signaling that Western nations

"Ready to raise the war between Ukraine and Russia" is a more direct war between the West and Russia.

if so

The “Russian-Ukrainian Conflict” will turn into a protracted war like the Vietnam War.

and war in Afghanistan

that may have the development of new military technologies

and cyber warfare operations

The use of biological weapons and pathogens, which is a threat to humanity, will surely follow.

“If the Russo-Ukrainian war drags on, what follows is oil, energy, food and economic sanctions.

And financial measures will be used in war so much that it affects people around the world.

even though that country is not in a war zone

Or not involved in the conflict, still affected more or less,” Assoc. Prof. Dr. Anusorn said.

If analyzing the drill

"Ukraine-Russian conflict" from the movement still has the opportunity to expand into a war in Europe.

Because of the invasion of Russia 1 year ago, the Ukrainian army came out against

including NATO members

and neighboring states

ukraine all look

The "Russian Putin regime" is a threat to European security, peace and stability.

This makes Western nations more likely to impose additional economic sanctions on Russia.

to change politics within Russia

But they were subjected to economic turbulence, causing the oil crisis and world food shortages.

Because conflicting parties such as Russia, NATO, and the United States still have no signs of negotiating on China's 12 proposals, which will lead to a change in war policy in Ukraine.

Next, "War in Ukraine for 1 year", the World Bank estimates the economic damage to Ukraine at minus 35%, the IMF estimates contraction by 30%, inflation at 26-27%, people below the poverty line, an increase of 60% from before birth. War 18% Economic infrastructure damage at least $138 billion

Reconstruction could cost up to $1 trillion.

"Ukrainian government" has a budget deficit of up to 3.8 billion dollars, "IMF" reveals that the Ukrainian economy can still move forward.

But if you look at the “global economy”, there has not been a recession in the beginning.

"Economic slowdown", with the global economy expected to expand only 2.7-2.9%, a rate lower than the average of the global economy in normal conditions.

then some countries

or some regions may have to face

“Recession” but this will not happen in Thailand and ASEAN.

Moreover, last year

“As a result of the war in Ukraine and the drought”, the wheat-producing areas

and the crops were damaged and could not be cultivated

Because Russia-Ukraine exports 25-30% of the world wheat trade.

Countries that import wheat such as Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines, Egypt, Morocco must find other exporting countries.

Because the war caused the production to be stranded in "Ukraine", the sanctions from the West made it

“Buying wheat from Russia is becoming more difficult.” If the war drags on, “the world” may turn to wheat from “India” to mitigate soaring demand.

Not only that, the "protracted war in Ukraine" has also affected large amounts of agricultural land.

"And still can't enter the recovery" causing some EU members

Including the UK, there is a food shortage from "drought and the effects of war in Ukraine" until there is a quota to buy food.

by supermarket

The problem of "food shortages in Europe" has a positive effect on the agro-industrial business.

and food exports of Thailand

Because in the past, "India" began to suspend exports of wheat and grains in order to be sufficient for domestic consumption.

and prevent internal prices from rising too high

It also imports food products.

and more agricultural crops

As such, “developed countries” must consume appropriately to share among the 193 million people of 53 “food insecure” countries. out many types

And this situation should even last until the middle of 2024.

What is remarkable is

“Allowing Ukraine to export grain

and fertilizer through the Black Sea” to alleviate global food insecurity.

“It is an agreement between Russia

And the United Nations will end on March 30 this year.” If not extended further, it will affect food shortages.

and fertilizer around the world for sure

This is such a great opportunity.

“Food export sector

and Thai agricultural products.” Exports should be accelerated if there is a large amount of surplus production.

and allocate additional budgets for the year 2023-2024 to the agricultural sector

and the food production sector to invest in research.

invest in breeding

In order to increase the productivity per rai, leading to more exports.

It is also moving forward to become the "Kitchen of the World", the center of the world's high-quality agriculture sector.

“As a collective mission for humanity,” it does not stop at national economic interests.

In addition, Thailand should play a greater role in the World Food Organization in eliminating hunger and providing basic human access to food.

This year, as a whole, Thailand has benefited from an increase in income from food exports, but the cost of living of Thai people has become more expensive.

and farmers fairly

because those affected by expensive food are

“Low-income people” have expenses that account for 50-70% of their income.

Last but not least, "Thailand" should have a stand against war.

against invasion of other countries

and against violations of international law

support respect for territorial integrity

Support peace and negotiations to end war.

End More Bloody Violence

and provide humanitarian assistance where possible.

This story "foreign policy must be neutral" because of the conflict.

The Russo-Ukrainian War was complicated.

"Thailand has no direct interest" should not interfere with economic sanctions against Russia. "Policy executives" must seize the national interest.

and maintaining balance, knowing how to prioritize...