The election that will take place in 2023, each political party has continuously announced campaign policies.

hopes to win the hearts of almost every group of eligible voters

including welfare policies, subsidies, job creation and infrastructure development

leading to observations and concerns in many aspects

From the analysis of Dr. Somkiat Tangkitvanit

President of Thailand Development Research Institute together with Dr. Niphon Puapongsakorn, Honorary Scholar

Thailand Development Research Institute

which monitors the policies of all 9 political parties, only with sufficiently clear details until February 20, 2023, a total of 87 policies

Although many policies announced by political parties

with good intentions aimed at resolving suffering

and problems of different groups of people

especially the vulnerable groups

But there are still many policies that are likely to cause problems for the country in the long run.

It is one of the most important concerns, creating a fiscal burden from overspending.

Second, there is a tendency to use off-budget money through various state-owned enterprises.

and specialized financial institutions of the state

which makes the use of money not go through the budget process

and make the parliament, as the representative of the people, unable to be examined; or third, establish norms or culture.

Which destroys the discipline of the people in paying loans, such as policies to exempt or reduce various loan debts

unreasonably

or reduce the role of credit bureaus

According to estimates, there are at least 2 political parties that are expected to spend more than 2 trillion baht more than the current budget per year.

to implement the announced policy

and if including the fiscal costs of the policies of all 9 political parties, excluding duplicate policies

will require an additional budget of 3.14 trillion baht per year

Or almost double the expenditure budget for 2023, but does not include the policies of some political parties that have been announced to gradually "gain" the policies of other political parties that have been announced before, such as the policy to reduce gasoline and diesel prices.

It should be noted that most political parties that announce various policies

It has yet to specify where the budget will come from, such as what taxes will be increased or what areas of the existing budget will be cut.

except for one political party

proposed to reduce the size of the army

while another political party

Claims that government revenues will increase from the rate of economic growth that will continue to increase.

and that various political parties

Propose welfare policies and assistance

It is like the policy does not have any fiscal cost. 

Second concern

Most of the announced policies

focusing on solving problems or responding to the immediate needs of the people

without truly enhancing the country's capabilities in the long run

which does not help to make the workforce more skilled

The business sector as well as the agricultural sector have higher productivity.

able to survive in the race

and the government more efficient

Third concern

Many policies announced may not be implemented in practice.

due to the need to amend various laws

There are many

It did not appear that the political parties proposing such policies had systematically studied the guidelines for amending various laws.

as well as costs and benefits that will occur

new government policy

after election

could create a fiscal crisis

The above three concerns lead to a fourth concern:

If political parties are still competing for votes in hopes of defeating each other like this

will cause the condition

"Dilemma" (dilemma) is if the new government after the election.

which is likely to be a coalition government

The policy of the coalition political parties has been announced as the government's policy for implementation.

Thailand is likely to experience so much fiscal problems that a crisis may occur.

As it happened in the beginning of the government of General Prem Tinsulanonda or many countries around the world.

Especially countries in Latin America.

This will rapidly increase Thailand's public debt, currently at 61% of GDP.

or even if there is no fiscal crisis

It may cause confidence problems in the Thai economy.

As various credit rating agencies

began to show anxiety

may cause sensitive problems to follow

As an example of England

which suffered a severe economic crisis last year.

until the Prime Minister had to resign

This is because financial markets see the government as irresponsible fiscal policy.

on the contrary

If the new government does not bring the important policies of the coalition political parties into the government's policy

People will lose faith in democratic politics.

because of the feeling of being deceived by politicians

This will result in making the establishment of democracy in Thailand more difficult. 

Out of concern, there was a proposal.

First

I want to see political parties review various policies.

announced once again how feasible both fiscally and legally

And improve it to be more appropriate before the election.

and secondly

I want to see a reform of the rules of the election campaign.

Because the existing rules create policy competitions that risk damaging the country.

Currently, there are two related laws that try to prevent government overspending.

The 2017 Organic Act on Political Parties and the 2018 State Monetary and Fiscal Discipline Act, both of which are still ineffective.

Because there is a significant weakness, as specified in Section 57 of the Organic Act on Political Parties, political parties that advertise policies that require money

Must present 3 items of information: the amount of money that must be used and the origin of the amount

Worthiness and benefits in policy implementation

and impacts and risks in policy implementation.

However, the law provides very light punishment.

In the event that a political party fails to produce such information, the Election Commission has only the power to order it to be correct.

And if the political party still violates, they will pay a fine of not more than 500,000 baht and another 10,000 baht per day until they are correct.

And it has never appeared that the Election Commission has prepared a publicly available report on the impact and risk analysis of political party policy implementation.

This raises questions about the Election Commission's ability to enforce the law.

The Public Fiscal Discipline Act

It was designed as a tool to control the expenditure budget system and the creation of public debt.

There is a significant gap in the definition of

“Off-budget money” does not cover the expenditure of state-owned enterprises and state-owned specialized financial institutions operating in accordance with state policies.

which means

If the government requires state-owned financial institutions such as the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives

or Government Savings Bank

Use their money to intervene in the price of agricultural products according to the government's policy.

Such actions would not be regulated by this law.

As a result, the government can spend money on policy without passing the scrutiny of the parliament.

Amendments should be made to reduce gaps in both laws.

By giving freedom to political parties to campaign by creating various policies.

that will benefit the public

but the implementation of such policies when the government

Only funds from the budget must be used and cannot be spent outside the budget.

and prohibit spending more than the amount previously proposed to the Election Commission of Thailand in order to create accountability for the implementation of government policies to the people and the parliament, which represents the people.