The election that will take place in 2023, each political party has continuously announced campaign policies.
hopes to win the hearts of almost every group of eligible voters
including welfare policies, subsidies, job creation and infrastructure development
leading to observations and concerns in many aspects
From the analysis of Dr. Somkiat Tangkitvanit
President of Thailand Development Research Institute together with Dr. Niphon Puapongsakorn, Honorary Scholar
Thailand Development Research Institute
which monitors the policies of all 9 political parties, only with sufficiently clear details until February 20, 2023, a total of 87 policies
Although many policies announced by political parties
with good intentions aimed at resolving suffering
and problems of different groups of people
especially the vulnerable groups
But there are still many policies that are likely to cause problems for the country in the long run.
It is one of the most important concerns, creating a fiscal burden from overspending.
Second, there is a tendency to use off-budget money through various state-owned enterprises.
and specialized financial institutions of the state
which makes the use of money not go through the budget process
and make the parliament, as the representative of the people, unable to be examined; or third, establish norms or culture.
Which destroys the discipline of the people in paying loans, such as policies to exempt or reduce various loan debts
unreasonably
or reduce the role of credit bureaus
According to estimates, there are at least 2 political parties that are expected to spend more than 2 trillion baht more than the current budget per year.
to implement the announced policy
and if including the fiscal costs of the policies of all 9 political parties, excluding duplicate policies
will require an additional budget of 3.14 trillion baht per year
Or almost double the expenditure budget for 2023, but does not include the policies of some political parties that have been announced to gradually "gain" the policies of other political parties that have been announced before, such as the policy to reduce gasoline and diesel prices.
It should be noted that most political parties that announce various policies
It has yet to specify where the budget will come from, such as what taxes will be increased or what areas of the existing budget will be cut.
except for one political party
proposed to reduce the size of the army
while another political party
Claims that government revenues will increase from the rate of economic growth that will continue to increase.
and that various political parties
Propose welfare policies and assistance
It is like the policy does not have any fiscal cost.
Second concern
Most of the announced policies
focusing on solving problems or responding to the immediate needs of the people
without truly enhancing the country's capabilities in the long run
which does not help to make the workforce more skilled
The business sector as well as the agricultural sector have higher productivity.
able to survive in the race
and the government more efficient
Third concern
Many policies announced may not be implemented in practice.
due to the need to amend various laws
There are many
It did not appear that the political parties proposing such policies had systematically studied the guidelines for amending various laws.
as well as costs and benefits that will occur
new government policy
after election
could create a fiscal crisis
The above three concerns lead to a fourth concern:
If political parties are still competing for votes in hopes of defeating each other like this
will cause the condition
"Dilemma" (dilemma) is if the new government after the election.
which is likely to be a coalition government
The policy of the coalition political parties has been announced as the government's policy for implementation.
Thailand is likely to experience so much fiscal problems that a crisis may occur.
As it happened in the beginning of the government of General Prem Tinsulanonda or many countries around the world.
Especially countries in Latin America.
This will rapidly increase Thailand's public debt, currently at 61% of GDP.
or even if there is no fiscal crisis
It may cause confidence problems in the Thai economy.
As various credit rating agencies
began to show anxiety
may cause sensitive problems to follow
As an example of England
which suffered a severe economic crisis last year.
until the Prime Minister had to resign
This is because financial markets see the government as irresponsible fiscal policy.
on the contrary
If the new government does not bring the important policies of the coalition political parties into the government's policy
People will lose faith in democratic politics.
because of the feeling of being deceived by politicians
This will result in making the establishment of democracy in Thailand more difficult.
Out of concern, there was a proposal.
First
I want to see political parties review various policies.
announced once again how feasible both fiscally and legally
And improve it to be more appropriate before the election.
and secondly
I want to see a reform of the rules of the election campaign.
Because the existing rules create policy competitions that risk damaging the country.
Currently, there are two related laws that try to prevent government overspending.
The 2017 Organic Act on Political Parties and the 2018 State Monetary and Fiscal Discipline Act, both of which are still ineffective.
Because there is a significant weakness, as specified in Section 57 of the Organic Act on Political Parties, political parties that advertise policies that require money
Must present 3 items of information: the amount of money that must be used and the origin of the amount
Worthiness and benefits in policy implementation
and impacts and risks in policy implementation.
However, the law provides very light punishment.
In the event that a political party fails to produce such information, the Election Commission has only the power to order it to be correct.
And if the political party still violates, they will pay a fine of not more than 500,000 baht and another 10,000 baht per day until they are correct.
And it has never appeared that the Election Commission has prepared a publicly available report on the impact and risk analysis of political party policy implementation.
This raises questions about the Election Commission's ability to enforce the law.
The Public Fiscal Discipline Act
It was designed as a tool to control the expenditure budget system and the creation of public debt.
There is a significant gap in the definition of
“Off-budget money” does not cover the expenditure of state-owned enterprises and state-owned specialized financial institutions operating in accordance with state policies.
which means
If the government requires state-owned financial institutions such as the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives
or Government Savings Bank
Use their money to intervene in the price of agricultural products according to the government's policy.
Such actions would not be regulated by this law.
As a result, the government can spend money on policy without passing the scrutiny of the parliament.
Amendments should be made to reduce gaps in both laws.
By giving freedom to political parties to campaign by creating various policies.
that will benefit the public
but the implementation of such policies when the government
Only funds from the budget must be used and cannot be spent outside the budget.
and prohibit spending more than the amount previously proposed to the Election Commission of Thailand in order to create accountability for the implementation of government policies to the people and the parliament, which represents the people.