The British newspaper The Guardian named five scenarios for the end of Russia's war against Ukraine

The article is translated by TSN.ua.

Russia is on the offensive

Russia achieves a breakthrough in the east - either before Ukraine receives Western weapons in a few weeks, or after the Ukrainian counteroffensive fails.

The key advantage of the invaders is the number of available troops - about 300,000, almost all of them are already in Ukraine.

Some Ukrainian experts fear that Russia can encircle Donbas and the east from Sumy in the north to Velika Novosilka in the south.

This will allow the Kremlin to occupy most of the four Ukrainian regions, the territory of which it invaded earlier.

At this point, Russia may call for a cease-fire to preserve what it has and launch a defensive campaign to consolidate its shattered army.

However, it is difficult to imagine Russia striking this far west, given the extremely slow advance around Bakhmut and the disastrous attempt to capture Vugledar.

Currently, according to Western intelligence estimates, Russia is losing 1,000 people a day.

There is speculation that the Kremlin will try to launch a new wave of mobilization, and another concern is that Beijing may begin secretly supplying Russia with weapons.

The offensive of Ukraine

Ukraine is amassing a force of more than 100 Western Leopard 1 and 2 tanks, as well as other tanks and an equal number of armored vehicles, which it hopes to use when the spring weather subsides to break through the occupiers' defense lines.

The obvious strategy is to try to sever the road and rail corridor connecting Russia proper with occupied Crimea, thus cutting off the peninsula by advancing on Melitopol or Berdansk.

Combine this with a new attack on the repaired Kerch Bridge, and Crimea will become increasingly isolated and vulnerable.

There is hope that such a show of military might could force Russia to the negotiating table, but Vladimir Putin's bellicose speech this week hardly suggests he is ready to compromise anytime soon.

In fact, if Ukraine is going to push Russia out of all of the occupied territory, it will probably need several more offensive actions over at least many months, as well as a radical change in the Kremlin's thinking.

Worryingly, even this is too optimistic, although this is exactly the strategy Western leaders seem to be presenting to the public.

"There is a real problem that we may be overly encouraged by Ukraine's first successes in counterattacks last year," said James Nixey, a Russia expert at the Chatham House think tank.

A stalemate

Ukraine's long-awaited spring counteroffensive in the spring and summer was not as successful as it would have been, in part because the West failed to provide it with enough weapons.

The result is a protracted struggle, the intensity of which gradually decreases as the Russians run out of ammunition and supplies to Ukraine weaken.

Then the pressure on Kyiv will increase to force it to negotiate - not necessarily from the West, but perhaps at the initiative of China.

However, Ukraine is unlikely to officially cede any territory, given popular support in resisting the Russian invasion.

Therefore, the more likely end point here is not a negotiated peace, but rather a conflict centered around the lines of control.

"You end up with something between a frozen conflict and a perpetual war, in which neither side has the energy or the economy to win," Nixey said.

It will be similar to the situation after the first Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014 – but this time the West will be left alone with an implacable, big enemy player in the person of Moscow.

Meanwhile, Ukraine will need years of Western support to ensure the stability of its eastern border.

Exhaustion of the West

Russia hopes that it will be able to drag the West into a long proxy war that will exhaust the countries first militarily and then politically.

This would mirror what happened in Afghanistan, when the US pulled out 20 years later, handing it back to the Taliban.

Currently, Western countries are showing unity in their desire to help Ukraine dislodge Russia.

But if Joe Biden is defeated in the 2024 US presidential election by Donald Trump or another isolationist candidate, it could raise serious questions for Ukraine's war effort.

According to the Kiel Institute of World Economics, the United States provided Ukraine with 44 billion euros ($46 billion) in military support, and Europe (including Great Britain) with 18.7 billion euros.

Change of leadership

Wars often end unpredictably, and failure to achieve expected victories often results in a sudden change of government.

As for Russia, Nixey said, "Putin is probably in the most risky position he's ever been in," but added that the Russian president's control over the Kremlin and the country remains strong.

Even if Putin were unexpectedly ousted, it is far from obvious that any other successor would want to leave Ukraine.

The longer the war in Ukraine continues without results, the greater the probability that something unexpected will happen - on both sides.

Previously, TSN.ua collected the answers of experts, diplomats and the military about how the war with Russia will end.

Read also:

  • When there will be a turning point in the war with Russia: a soldier of the Armed Forces named the conditions

  • The expert predicted when the war would end - not in 2023

  • Without victory, Ukraine will disappear in a few years - Podoliak

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