The situation around Russian-occupied Transnistria has sharply worsened.

The new government of Moldova announced its intention to clear the region of Russian troops.

The Ukrainian authorities did not exclude their aid to Chisinau, and the Kremlin announced the preparation of an offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Transnistria.

Military analysts believe that Russia is trying to destabilize the situation in Moldova in order to increase the tension on the border with Ukraine.

TSN.ua collected details about the latest events in the region and experts' opinions about a possible threat to Ukraine.

Escalation in Moldova: what is happening

The situation escalated after the Ukrainian authorities passed on information about Russia's plans to stage a coup d'état in Chisinau to the President of Moldova,

Maia Sandu

.

The coup scenario predicted that the Russians would seize the airport in Chisinau and send troops to Moldova.

The landing of the occupiers in Moldova was to be supported by the Russian military contingent in Transnistria.

After this information was made public, the new Prime Minister of Moldova, 

Dorin Rechan

, said that Transnistria must be demilitarized and the Russian occupation contingent expelled from there.

According to him, there are "real threats of escalation of either military or hybrid operations" in Moldova.

Rechan insists that "the left bank of the Dniester (unrecognized Transnistria. - ed.) must be demilitarized by evacuating Russian troops and demilitarizing local residents."

In turn, the President of Ukraine, 

Volodymyr Zelenskyi,

declared his readiness to help Moldova with Transnistria, if there is a threat to the territorial integrity of Ukraine itself. 

In response,

the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation directly accused Ukraine of preparing an "attack" on Transnistria.

The Russian Federation claims that the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are preparing a provocation - as if they will change into Russian uniforms and stage an attack by Russian troops from the territory of Transnistria in order to get a formal excuse for their own offensive.

"The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation is currently recording a significant accumulation of personnel and military equipment of Ukrainian units near the Ukrainian-Transnistrian border, the deployment of artillery at firing positions, as well as an unprecedented increase in the flights of unmanned aircraft of the Armed Forces of Ukraine over the territory of the PMR," the agency reported.

Against this background, Russian President

Vladimir Putin

canceled his own decree of 2012, which referred to "the search for solutions to the Transnistrian problem based on respect for the sovereignty, territorial integrity and neutral status of the Republic of Moldova."

Does Russia want to extend "SVO" to Moldova?

Military and political commentator

Oleksandr Kovalenko

 suggested in a comment on TSN.ua that Russia plans to extend a "special military operation" to Moldova.

For this, the Kremlin can invent a scenario with the "rescue" of Moldova from the "invasion" of some third party to Transnistria.

Russian propaganda will call the Moldovan government "Nazi" and declare that it must be de-Nazified and demilitarized as soon as possible.

"

Such a hybrid scenario is possible. Any IPSO is in fact preparation. The threat is increasing

... Russians can tell their population that there was a threat to Transnistria, which is why it is necessary to spread the so-called "SVO" to Moldova as well," he says expert.

However, Kovalenko considers this scenario "suicidal" for the Russian Federation: "If it is used by the Russians, they will suffer an even bigger fiasco than in Ukraine. There are huge doubts that they will succeed in this scenario."

Is there a threat to Ukraine?

Military expert

Denys Popovych

believes that it would be extremely difficult for the Russians to organize an offensive from Transnistria, because their contingent does not have heavy equipment at their disposal, and it is still impossible for the occupiers to transfer it to an unrecognized enclave.

But as a certain hub to carry out sabotage and shake up the situation in the region, Russia's Transnistria is very suitable

, says the observer.

"Although similar things were already raised in April last year, Transnistria was seen as a point of tension. But then the Transnistrian elite said quite seriously that they would not want to get involved in the war. One way or another, we need to monitor this situation, because we see that some events are building up there," Popovych concluded.

Military analyst

Oleksiy Hetman,

in a comment for TSN.ua, expressed the opinion that the Russians want to transfer troops to Moldova in order to strengthen their group and create a threat to Odesa.

"Why is Transnistria important?... The enemy does not have the forces and means there.

An operational Russian group is located in Transnistria because there are very large warehouses with shells left there. It is impossible to move these warehouses to the Russian Federation, but to create some group there, which will use munitions is quite possible.

My guess is that they want to send Kadyrivs or other special forces to Moldova to seize power in Moldova, to form a group and attack Odesa. I think our intelligence and defense forces are doing the smart right thing by stepping up the measures security at the border," Hetman noted.

"Transnistria in three days"

Former adviser to the President's Office,

Oleksiy Arestovych

, believes that Ukraine can help Moldova "cleanse" Transnistria in a matter of days, even without waiting for victory in the current war with the Russian Federation.

"Moldova is a sovereign state, and it itself decides who to ask for help. We can help only according to the decision of the Moldovan authorities.

We have the opportunity, it can be resolved in three days

," Arestovych is convinced.

He reminded that Transnistria is located on the "Ukrainian" bank of the river.

"It will be difficult for the Moldovan army to force the Dniester. It is much easier for us. We are a friendly country to Moldova and if they ask us, I don't see any obstacles," Arestovych concluded.

Military expert

Oleg Zhdanov,

in an interview with TSN.ua, agreed that Ukraine has the ability to drive out the Russian Viskovs from Transnistria.

"As I understand it, Ukraine is waiting for an appeal from Moldova. We have the forces and means. From the beginning of this massive invasion, we were forced to keep troops on the border with Moldova in the part where Russian troops are present. We still have them today day. We did not allow the breakthrough of the land corridor to Transnistria. We did not allow the landing of sea and air landings to form a corridor to the sea. So we have enough forces and means, and if Moldova officially appeals to Ukraine, we can help them 

in solving the issue of demilitarization 

of this territory," the military expert said.

Read also:

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  • Russia accuses Ukraine of provocations: the DPSU revealed the situation on the border with Transnistria