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International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol has warned that the energy war between Europe and Russia is far from over despite a big drop in gas prices, urging governments to remain focused on maintaining and increasing supplies.

Fatih Birol told the Financial Times that while the EU has largely avoided a full-scale energy crisis following Russia's use of gas supplies as a weapon, next winter could prove more challenging if there is colder weather on the old continent.

"Russia played the energy card and did not win, but it would be too strong to say that Europe has already won the energy battle," Birol told the financial publication.

"The European economy is still on its feet, it hasn't experienced a major economic recession, even if it definitely took a big hit. I think Europe has done a good job with its strategy being a big success. But overconfidence about next winter is risky and it's time to let's continue and increase the efforts for 2023", noted the head of the IEA.

Natural gas prices in Europe have fallen by as much as 85% since hitting a record high of €340 per megawatt hour at the end of August last year as efforts to secure alternative sources, maintaining existing supplies and warmer weather left plenty of gas in storage as the end of winter approaches.

That has prompted some industry figures to say Moscow has already lost the energy war it unleashed to try to weaken Western support for Ukraine as the first anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of its neighbor approaches on February 24. .

Birol noted that while Europe has "moved mountains" to ensure it can replace Russian energy and cut Moscow's revenues with retaliatory oil sanctions, it cannot afford to lose focus on protecting or developing renewable energy sources .

"Some of the progress on clean energy and reducing Russia's revenue is good, but it's not a permanent solution. We've had the help of mild weather. We've gained some time, which is vital, but there's still a lot of work to do."

Birol warned that Russia could cut the remaining 20% ​​of its pre-war gas supplies, which it still sends to Europe via pipelines through Ukraine and Turkey, while competition for seaborne LNG supplies is likely to increase as China's economy continues to reopen after strict Covid restrictions are lifted.

That would make refilling Europe's gas storage in the summer months more challenging and test the continent's ability to avoid shortages of the blue fuel if next winter turns out to be particularly cold.

Although some European countries are increasing their use of highly polluting coal for power generation — to save gas for heating and industry — EU emissions are set to fall by 2.5% in 2022 due to lower gas consumption and a warm start to winter, noted the head of the MAE.

Birol is pushing for a longer-term transformation that not only adds renewables but also ensures that more wind turbines or batteries are made in Europe.

He met twice last week with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, insisting the EU must ensure it never again becomes too dependent on any one country for its energy or supply chains.

"We are entering a new industrial era of producing clean energy technologies. The two leading powers in clean energy production are China and the US — relying on a single country is always a bad idea. So if we want to diversify, Europe is a good candidate." , he pointed out.

The IEA chief also noted that despite the sharp decline, European gas prices are still two to three times higher than before Russian supply cuts, leaving European industry at a disadvantage.

"The European economy is still on its feet – it hasn't seen a major economic recession, although it's definitely taken a big hit," Birol said.

"But gas prices in Europe are still seven times higher than in the US, while electricity prices are three times higher than in China. The lasting solution to energy security must be based on clean energy," he added. Birol.

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