These questions are discussed on the Svaboda Premium channel by Yury Drakakhrust and the political analyst of the Pozirk project, Alexander Klaskovsky.



Briefly

  • Lukashenko is trying to combine the roles of dove of peace and military ally of the Kremlin.

  • I do not share the version that Putin is twisting Lukashenka's hands to send the Belarusian army to war.

  • Lukashenko shows that he strives with every fiber of his soul to dialogue with the West, the status of a co-aggressor is uncomfortable for him.

  • Lukashenka would like "decent people" from the West to visit him again.

  • There is a behind-the-scenes game between Kyiv and Minsk.

    Kyiv does not trust Lukashenka too much, understanding his dependence on Moscow, but tries to play with him.

  • Lukashenka is nostalgic for the times when he played the role of a peacemaker.


— On February 16, Alexander Lukashenko gave a long press conference for foreign journalists.

During it, in particular, he stated: "I am ready to fight together with the Russians from the territory of Belarus only in one case: if at least one soldier from Ukraine with a gun comes to the territory of Belarus to kill my people."

Foreign journalists regularly ask Belarusian experts the question: will Lukashenko send the Belarusian army into battle?

From his words spoken today, did the answer to this question become clearer?



- The leitmotif of Lukashenka's statements today is calls for peace and the desire to join these peace negotiations.

He is very dependent on the Kremlin and must show cooperation.

He justifies this with the "aggressiveness" of Ukraine.

Today, he again repeated his thesis, which became a meme, that before February 24, 2022, Ukraine was allegedly going to attack Belarus.

Although we see that even now Ukraine avoids opening a second front and dances in front of Lukashenka.

Lukashenko is trying to combine the roles of dove of peace and military ally of the Kremlin.



At the same time, everyone understands that if Putin decides on a new attack on Ukraine from Belarusian territory, then Lukashenka will not be able to refuse him.

And it undercuts all his pirouettes about what a great peacemaker he is.

Because thereby he confirms the role of a puppet with whom there is nothing to talk about.



Lukashenko emphasized that he will throw his army to the front only in case of Ukrainian aggression.

I guess this reflects his agreement with Putin: for now, the Kremlin will not push Lukashenka on the shoulders to send his soldiers to war.

I do not share the version that Putin is twisting Lukashenka's hands so that he sends the Belarusian army to war.



— Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Oleksiy Danilov said: "The country of Belarus has been occupied by the Russian Federation for a long time.

This is a proven fact.

Lukashenka resists as much as he can so that he is not forced to take an active, direct part in the war against our people.

I think that there will be another meeting on Friday, when Lukashenka will be forced to change his point of view."

Another meeting between Lukashenka and Putin will take place on Friday.


After Lukashenka's press conference, do you think Danilov's forecast is more or less probable?



— During the press conference, Lukashenka looked quite confident.

I would note one more of his statements - that Belarusians should not be afraid of mobilization.

If tomorrow Putin twists his hands, then he may change his position, he will tell once again "where Ukraine was preparing an attack on Belarus" and about the fact that "Poland is the hyena of Europe that snaps its fangs."



But I will return to my conclusion: well, it doesn't look like Putin is at odds with Lukashenko today.

In December, when Putin was going to Minsk, many experts said that now he will surely touch Lukashenka.

Even if they agree on something, they are not stupid enough to trumpet it.

If the flagging of forces on the border with Ukraine will take place, then all this will be tracked in advance.



If there were real conflicts between Lukashenka and Putin, they entered the public sphere.

Today, Lukashenka recalled the times when the major figures of the American administration, Mike Pompeo and John Bolton, flew to Minsk. According to Lukashenka, they were "decent people".

He wants such "decent people" to fly to him now.

- Well, the Hungarian minister has arrived.



- Minister - yes, he came.

By the way, I did not meet with Lukashenko.

Mo didn't risk it.

After all, it is, to put it in modern youth slang, "poor" even for the current Budapest.

Lukashenko shows that he strives with every fiber of his soul to dialogue with the West, the status of a co-aggressor is uncomfortable for him, and the specter of The Hague haunts him.

But, as he said, he would like to go to heaven, and sins are not allowed.

He cannot demand from Putin to withdraw his troops from Belarus.

He cannot release political prisoners, although he also spoke on this topic today.



Putin flew to Minsk in December, he gives Lukashenka great benefits - he gave cheap gas for three years, and they signed an agreement on oil products.

Berth in Bronka near St. Petersburg is given to Belarus.

They give money and restructure loans.

All this does not mean that Putin is putting pressure on Lukashenka.

Lukashenka would like "decent people" from the West to visit him again.

But you can't jump higher than your head.

He was up to his ears in aggression.

But he is trying to "sell" the fact that his army is not fighting.

- Another interesting caveat.

He constantly scolded Zelensky, saying that he does not want peace, or rather, he obeys the Americans, who, according to Lukashenka, do not want peace.

And Lukashenka said about Zelensky: "Having set preconditions, such as leave the territory you seized, it seems fair, but in this case it indicates that they do not want to sit down at the negotiating table."

Demanding departure from captured territories is "as if it were fair."

I was surprised that no one asked Lukashenka about his attitude to Russia's annexation of four regions of Ukraine.

And he himself issued such an ambiguous formula.



- Why does Lukashenka refuse to recognize even Crimea as Russia?

Because in case of recognition, it is part of the Union State.

And then the Kremlin can demand from Minsk to jointly defend the union state from the Ukrainian "aggressor".



Another reason is that Ukraine is playing a difficult game with Minsk.

We know that Kiev lobbied not to include Belarus in the 9th EU sanctions package.

In the same vein, Ukraine's reluctance to contact Tikhonovskaya.

It was reported that Zelensky offered Lukashenka a non-aggression pact.



There is this behind-the-scenes diplomacy, Lukashenka has certain promises to Kyiv.

Kyiv does not trust him too much, understanding his dependence on Moscow, but tries to play with him.

And Lukashenko supports this game.

He tries to walk dry between the raindrops.

- During the press conference, a whole set of strange statements was made.

This is why he hoped that it would be possible to conclude a peace agreement with the Ukrainian military through the head of Zelensky, and the invitation to Minsk of US President Joe Biden, and megalomaniac proposals for Europe to conclude an alliance with Russia.

Why is he saying this?



— The statement about the union of Europe with Russia is a response to the old idea of ​​Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok.

It should be said that Europe really played with Russia for many years, and now individual leaders are trying to play with it.

But Moscow itself let everything go downhill - first by seizing Crimea, then by last year's aggression.

But I will repeat: Lukashenka is nostalgic for the times when he played the role of a peacemaker.



The words about the Ukrainian military, which can go to negotiations faster than Zelensky, is an attempt to drive a wedge into the Ukrainian elite.

As for Biden's invitation, Lukashenka himself stated that he does not believe in this visit.

This is again nostalgia for the old days.

He also mentioned the Minsk negotiations of 2015, said that today Merkel and Hollande are lying about those negotiations.

But he thinks fondly of the times when he "brought buckets of coffee" to the negotiators.



By the way, as former diplomat Paval Slyunkin reported, Lukashenka also wanted to join the negotiating table, but he was not allowed.

But he removed good diplomatic and political cream from the then "coffee tray".



— And what is the motivation for these statements about Biden and the union of Europe with the Russian Federation?

Is it simply the result of a misunderstanding of the motivations of Western societies and political classes, or is it the satisfaction of one's ambition, or is it a smoke screen to hold Putin's hand so that he does not order war?

And maybe this is a signal to Westerners: am I hypnotizing this Moscow cobra so that it does not rush?

And on me, and on you

.



- I think that there is a mixture of motives.

He is also trying to hypnotize this Kremlin "cobra".

He is also trying to cast fishing rods to the West.

There is also a misunderstanding of how all these mechanisms work in the West.

He is a hostage to the myths of his own propaganda.

He himself believes that Poles in schools teach children about maps on which half of Belarus is Poland.

  • Yuri Drakakhrust

    Journalist of Radio Svaboda


    drakakhrusty@rferl.org

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