American analysts of the Institute for the Study of War believe that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have created the conditions for a future counteroffensive thanks to the defense of

Bakhmut

in the Donetsk region.

At most - Russia lost a lot of "Wagnerians" along the way.

This will be reported in the daily ISW report.

Ukraine's decision to defend Bakhmut is strategically justified, analysts emphasize.

If Russian troops had taken it without significant resistance, they could have launched a wider operation.

"ISW continues to assess that Ukraine's decision to defend Bakhmut is likely to be strategically justified, despite the cost. The defense of this city in Donetsk region has forced the Kremlin to use a significant portion of the Wagner PMC mercenaries in this direction and to bring in airborne forces to support the grueling advance." - analysts explained.

Thus, the ISW disagrees with the conclusions of The Washington Post, which reported that, according to Pentagon representatives, Ukrainian forces are unable to simultaneously defend Bakhmut and launch a spring counteroffensive.

The authors of the material emphasize that they allegedly called on Ukraine to prioritize the offensive over the defense of Bakhmut. 

The Institute of Studies explains that the Ukrainian defense of Bakhmut led to the degradation of significant Russian forces.

Therefore, it is likely that favorable conditions will be created for the future counteroffensive of the Armed Forces.

If Russian forces were to occupy Bakhmut without significant Ukrainian resistance, ISW considers, it would force Ukrainian forces to hastily build defensive positions on less favorable terrain. 

"Thus, the defense of Bakhmut and attempts to create conditions for a counteroffensive are likely to be complementary rather than mutually exclusive actions, given that Russian forces would have continued their offensive outside the city if Ukraine had surrendered Bakhmut earlier," the ISW concluded. 

As a reminder, The Washington Post, citing sources from the administration of US President Joe Biden, writes that the White House believes that the 

turning point in Ukraine's war with Russia will come in the spring of 2023

.

Then they wait for the invaders to attack, and the Ukrainian forces will counterattack.

Read also:

  • The Russians are already storming Bakhmut from the sides: "Hradiv" aircraft have begun to arrive in supposedly rear population centers

  • Russia may resort to air combat during offensive, so Ukraine needs to strengthen air defense - Politico

  • The offensive of Putin's army in the east: Zelensky reported an "extremely difficult" situation

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