Stephen M. Young

◎Stephen M. Young

As an expert on Sino-Soviet relations in academia and during my 33-year career as an American diplomat, I have been closely watching the evolution of this tragic conflict in Ukraine.

Russian strongman President Vladimir Putin's decision to go to war has brought untold suffering to the Ukrainian people.

Although the Kremlin has always been secretive, the war is estimated to have resulted in more than 200,000 Russian casualties and casualties.

Even as the international community accuses Putin of being a war criminal, he has intensified his crackdown on domestic dissidents against his brutal dictatorship for nearly a year.

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From various objective perspectives, this war is going from bad to worse for Russia and Ukraine.

With winter approaching and the movement of both armies hampered, the intensity of the fighting seemed to have begun to wane, but there was little prospect of an early end to the carnage.

Since the war is taking place on Ukrainian territory, the Ukrainian people are bearing the brunt of the current situation.

But the people of Ukraine, under the inspiring leadership of President Volodymyr Zelensky, are working tirelessly to drive Russian invaders from their land one by one.

From his early days as a comedian, Zelensky has transformed into one of the most admired political figures of our time.

With the exception of Russia and some of its closest allies, the world stands with Zelensky and his heroic fellow Ukrainians in seeking a solution that preserves Ukraine's territorial integrity and ensures that Putin cannot gain from this war. Solutions for long-term benefits.

Much has been said about the war's impact on European geopolitics, while cross-strait relations and the threat of Chinese aggression against the democratic nation of Taiwan and its 23 million brave citizens have also been directly impacted by the conflict in Ukraine .

Let us recall that when Putin met Xi Jinping in Beijing early last year, the two jointly declared that the Sino-Russian partnership has "no upper limit".

Whether Putin disclosed to Xi that he intended to invade Ukraine remains a mystery.

Xi Jinping, on the other hand, has been careful not to directly provide material assistance to Putin's war, and to avoid talking too much about this war that does not add points to his own status in the international community. After all, he and Mr. Putin have only shown brotherhood before. like friendship.

Did Xi Jinping know in advance of Putin's plan to invade Ukraine?

If so, has he supported Putin verbally or materially?

Were there any discussions about Taiwan between these two dictators?

These are questions the world wants to know more about.

My personal opinion is that it was impossible for Putin to completely avoid talking about his plans for aggression against Ukraine when he met Xi Jinping in Beijing last February.

It is therefore curious how Xi responded to Putin, whether in private conversations with Putin at the time, or exchanges of views after the war broke out.

How does Xi Jinping feel about the stalemate in the Ukrainian-Russian war?

Leaving aside these unthinkable issues, how does Xi Jinping judge that Putin's invasion of Ukraine will affect his own single-minded plan to seize Taiwan?

Does he think that an undeclared war against Taiwan will be invincible and that Putin's foolish actions will not be repeated, leading to overwhelming condemnation from the global public opinion?

After the war broke out in February last year, how did Xi Jinping view the global alliance to support Ukraine diplomatically and materially?

How does Xi feel when the fighting has reached a stalemate, with heavy casualties on both sides, and with little discernible when and how the conflict will resolve?

There is no doubt that Xi the Great is eager to include Taiwan before the end of his rule.

He seems to be persevering in this goal.

The fact that President Biden, the U.S. Congress, and the majority of U.S. public opinion continue to support Taiwan's defense of its own security and defense regardless of the cost must make the Chinese dictator unhappy.

One of the setbacks these latest developments have presented to China is that since the beginning of last year, the previously ambiguous support for Taiwan in Washington, Tokyo and most of the other allies of the United States in East Asia has gradually become clear.

For example, President Biden has mentioned several times that if Taiwan is threatened or attacked, the United States will actively help defend Taiwan.

No matter how many White House aides try to moderate or withdraw Biden's statement, they cannot overturn the weight of Biden's own statement.

There is also no partisan divide on the Taiwan issue. Most members of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives continue to firmly support Taiwan's maintenance of the status quo, both Republicans and Democrats.

U.S. support for Taiwan no longer obscures Japan, Australia and worries about China threat

Any attempt to attack Taiwan would present logistical and political problems for Mr Xi far greater than Putin's current situation.

First, there is the fact that an attack on Taiwan would require a massive amphibious landing across 100 miles (about 160 kilometers) of open water.

Second, countries have gradually realized that they must curb China's bold act of unilaterally occupying islands and reefs in the South China Sea as its territory.

I find it especially convincing that close allies of the United States, Japan and Australia, have both vocalized their concerns about the Chinese threat.

We must remember that these friends represent broad support across East Asia for reining in Beijing's aggressive ambitions, with authorities from Tokyo to New Delhi increasingly viewing China as an existential threat.

However, none of these things can reassure the world that Mr. Xi will rein in the precipice and will not stir up hostility towards the free and democratic country Taiwan for no reason.

Only sustained and clear warnings that Beijing knows it will face an overwhelming response will stand a chance of convincing the Chinese leader to think twice about his wishful thinking.

Some say China's economic stagnation and signs of dissatisfaction with Mr. Xi's rule, though silenced, suggest Mr. Xi is less secure than he thinks.

Personally, I think that Xi Jinping must be on guard against his cronies. These people may not be so convinced that Xi Jinping intends to become a lifelong leader. After all, they may also have high ambitions and cannot easily swallow the idea that a 70-year-old Xi Jinping intends to stay in power for life. .

Only the alliance between Taiwan and the democratic world can reduce the crisis of Chinese encroachment

Some people speculate that Taiwan's presidential and congressional elections in early 2024, which is less than a year away, may give China an opportunity to launch an attack on Taiwan.

If that doesn't happen, Xi Jinping may wait to see if the Kuomintang has a chance to take power and become a "partner" more willing to cooperate with Beijing.

Having said that, I think any new KMT government must recognize that public opinion within Taiwan has clearly grown averse to closer political and even economic ties with China.

However, the possibility that another DPP president will be born in the 2024 general election cannot be ruled out.

The best option for Taipei is to further build a solid relationship with Washington, while also continuing to strengthen exchanges with like-minded neighbors, including Japan, Indonesia, Vietnam, Australia, and India.

Let the authoritarian leadership in Beijing know that if China unleashes a terrible conflict that spells catastrophe across Asia and the world, they will go head-to-head with a powerful coalition of democracies unwilling to stand by.

In my opinion, this would reduce the chances of Taiwan facing a catastrophe that could only erupt because of the blind ambitions of China's current leaders.

(Author Yang Sudi, from 2006 to 2009 served as the Director of the Taipei Office of the American Institute in Taiwan, and from 2010 to 2013 served as the Consul General of the United States in Hong Kong and Macau. Translated by Sun Yuqing of the International News Center)

Since the war is taking place on Ukrainian territory, the Ukrainian people bear the brunt.

But the people of Ukraine, under the inspiring leadership of President Volodymyr Zelensky, have fought relentlessly.

The picture shows the scene of the Donetsk area being bombed by the Russian army.

(Associated Press)