The Russian military command is in a hurry to launch a new large-scale offensive to capture the Donetsk region, lacking sufficient combat power and setting unrealistic deadlines, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported in its daily analysis of the situation in Ukraine.

All about the topic:

Russian invasion of Ukraine 9242

Analysts published the assessment of the British Ministry of Defense, according to which Moscow has been trying to launch a large-scale offensive operation since the beginning of January 2023, but in a week it has managed to gain only a few hundred meters of territory.

According to the report, this slow pace is explained by the lack of ammunition and maneuver units necessary for a successful and rapid advance.

At the same time, experts point out that Russia is unlikely to be able to build up the necessary combat power to have a significant impact on the outcome of the war, while military commanders continue to demand an unrealistic and large-scale offensive.

"The Russian leadership is once again planning a decisive offensive based on mistaken assumptions about its military capabilities and does not have the necessary combat power to sustain more than one major offensive," the Institute for the Study of War emphasized.

The experts also explain that they have watched the Kremlin signal preparations for an offensive in early 2023, and conclude that time and space may prevent a rapid and large-scale Russian offensive as spring approaches, which is unsuitable for maneuver warfare.

On February 7, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu held a press conference on the state of the war, possibly in an attempt to portray the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) as an effective and committed leadership apparatus as the Russian military prepares to resume a large-scale offensive in Ukraine.

Shoigu said Russian forces were successfully developing operations near Bakhmut and Vukhledar, and said Russian troops had recently taken control of Soledar, Klishchievka, Pidhorodne, Krasnopolovka, Blagodatne and Nikolaevka in the Bakhmut and Lobkovo region of Zaporozhye Oblast.

The Russian nationalist media space continues to express concern over Russia's inability to conduct a swift and multi-pronged decisive offensive operation on time.

One prominent military blogger warned that Russian forces should not fall into the trap of trying to launch multiple offensive operations, as they did in the spring of 2022, but instead focus on a gradual advance that would result in heavy losses among Ukrainian forces.

The military blogger added that the Russian military command should prioritize tiring out Ukrainian forces and disrupting their logistics, rather than launching a frontal attack.

Another military blogger said Russia still needs to build a breakthrough force and abandon its current tactic of conducting small, localized offensives that dissipate Russian fighting forces to "seize territory."

Ukraine reported Russian shelling of civilian objects

Russia's state energy company Gazprom may be creating its own private security forces, possibly in an attempt to normalize the activities of state-linked paramilitary groups and undermine private military companies (PMCs).

The Main Directorate of Ukrainian Military Intelligence (GUR) announced on February 7 that Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin had authorized Gazprom's private subsidiary Gazprom Nafta to establish a 70 percent stake in its own private security company under law on the safety of assets of the Russian energy complex.

It is possible that the Kremlin is considering implementing some of the demands previously made by Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin to build relationships with other nationalist figures who advocate similar policies.

The head of the Russian State Duma's security and anti-corruption committee, Vasily Piskarev, is reportedly preparing amendments to the Russian Criminal Code to include provisions against discrediting individuals who have participated in combat operations and volunteer units that support the Russian armed forces in during the war in Ukraine.

The Russian State Duma further formalized the creation of welfare schemes in the occupied territories of Ukraine in order to further strengthen administrative control over the occupied areas.

On February 7, the Speaker of the State Duma, Vyacheslav Volodin, said that the Duma had adopted in the first reading four bills on the legislative integration of the social rights of the residents of the occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions.

Main conclusions

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu is likely trying to portray the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) as an effective and committed leadership apparatus as the Russian military prepares for a renewed major offensive in Ukraine.

It is possible that the Russian military command is in a hurry to launch a large-scale offensive operation to conquer the Donetsk region in an unrealistic time frame and possibly without sufficient combat power.

In the Russian nationalist media space, concern continues to be expressed about Russia's inability to sustain a swift and multi-pronged decisive offensive operation within a given timeframe.

Russia's state energy company Gazprom may be creating its own private security forces, possibly in an attempt to normalize state-linked paramilitary groups and undermine non-state private military companies (PMCs).

It is possible that the Kremlin is following through on some demands previously made by Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin to build relationships with other nationalist figures who advocate similar policies.

The Russian State Duma further formalized the creation of welfare schemes in the occupied territories of Ukraine in order to further strengthen administrative control over the occupied areas.

Russian forces are conducting limited ground attacks near Svatovo and Kremenna.

Russian forces continue ground attacks in the Bakhmut area.

Russian forces made no confirmed territorial gains along the southern axis.

Russian officials appear to be investing in rail infrastructure to increase the efficiency of military logistics.

The Russian Ministry of Defense is reportedly proposing a bill that would allow all military personnel, including conscripts, to volunteer for Russian peacekeeping missions.

Russian invasion of Ukraine

Russia-Ukraine war