The President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir

Putin

, has a large mobilization resource, but Russia no longer has normal equipment, and due to sanctions, they will not be able to repair it accordingly.

In addition, oil and gas sanctions will hit the Russian budget, and the so-called Russian elites will begin to complain about the loss of profits due to the inability to cooperate with Western markets.

Mykhailo Samus, deputy director of the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament for International Affairs, told about this in an interview with TSN.ua.

According to the expert, Putin has a large mobilization resource, but the unpreparedness of Russian men for war will lead to huge losses among the ranks of the occupiers.

"You can imagine that they take 500,000 people, put them in military uniforms and throw them at the Leopards. You can imagine it. Without air superiority, without normal intelligence, it will indeed lead to huge losses, but the answer can be such: "Well, they still have a million". In principle, there is logic here - you can throw (mobilized - ed.) to infinity if they like to die for Putin.

For a certain time, it can work.

Although I think that this time are still decreasing, and what is important, it is decreasing in another spectrum, the spectrum of sanctions," said Samus.

According to the expert, sanctions will still hit the Russian budget.

"Sanctions, in fact, have not yet taken effect during 2022. Of course, life there has become a little gray for the Russians, but it has not affected the combat capability of the army in any way. But here is an embargo on oil, gas, petroleum products, and perhaps our partners will introduce an embargo on the atom (nuclear industry - ed.), this will be a blow. Open statistics of Russia already claim that

the budget deficit is 60% larger than in January 2022.

This is the result.

This is the first month of sanctions. Oil products were introduced only on February 5.

And what will happen in February - March?", - notes Samus.

The expert also adds that due to sanctions, the Russian Federation will be forced to repair its military equipment with those spare parts that have remained in its warehouses since the time of the USSR.

"Yes, they have a lot of "meat",

but they no longer have normal equipment and they can no longer make it normally

, because there are simply no Western components. That is, their equipment will return to the past. They will repair tanks, but they will be the 80s with Soviet equipment.

But the situation will deteriorate economically and this will mean that

sooner or later, the Russian population and the elites will complain

. Because the elites are losing more and more money, they have basically already lost everything, but some there is hope, Putin tells them that everything will be fine, they will unite with China, India and they will have a lot of business opportunities again. And the oligarchs are promised that they will make good profits even without western markets.

In fact, it will not work, it will not work, sometime within the year it will become clear that Russia is in a steep peak

.

And I believe that

Putin has half a year left

, at most, when he can somehow tell fairy tales," he said.

Then, according to the expert, a very difficult situation will begin for the Russian Federation.

"First of all, who thinks that

Leopard

(tanks),

F-16

(fighters),

HIMARS

(artillery missile systems)... that they do not work against "meat",

they do

. This is only in the tactical direction you can see so many losses. If they try to organize some kind of strategic operation, the losses will be much more and it will be a truly catastrophic situation. Therefore, in fact, they have a lot of "meat", but they have nothing else, they have no resources, "iron" , they don't have shells. Indeed, this (war - ed.) can still be dragged on for a long time, but it doesn't work like that, it will "boil" in any case and, of course, it all depends on us - not to let Putin try to continue this infinitely. That is,

the more intense the defeats will be, the faster the moment will come when Putin himself will "turn his head".

They will not go anywhere, they will have to "twist their heads", because further these so-called elites will not be able to exist in this chaos", Samus summarized.

We will remind you that the oil sanctions that came into effect on December 5, 2022, despite the expectations of skeptics,

turned out to be effective

.

Russia currently sells oil almost at cost.

And on February 5, 2023, the following restrictions will enter into force - two price ceilings for Russian oil products will apply. 

We should also add that on Sunday, February 5, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi implemented the decision of the National Security and Defense Council regarding

sanctions against Russia's nuclear industry. 

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