The outside world continues to pay attention to the progress of the second phase of relaxation of indoor masks. Wang Bisheng, commander of the Central Epidemic Command Center, said that he is currently continuing to observe the three major considerations.

(Provided by Command Center)

[Reporter Lin Huiqin/Taipei Report] The outside world continues to pay attention to the progress of the second phase of relaxation of indoor masks. Wang Bisheng, commander of the Central Epidemic Command Center, said that at present, he continues to observe three major considerations. Among them, the number of confirmed cases seems to be declining in a good direction. However, the use of intensive care units is still high these days, and communication with various ministries is ongoing, and it is expected to continue to observe for a period of time.

The outside world believes that loosening masks requires knowing the black number of infected people. He responded that by estimating the actual number of confirmed cases and unreported numbers, the real number of infected people in China is between 60% and 70%.

Wang Bisheng mentioned that due to the continuous holiday effect of the Spring Festival, including delayed notification and more opportunities for contact and exposure during the long holiday, the epidemic has increased. However, the number of confirmed cases has dropped from the previous week for 3 consecutive days, and the decline is not small. Whether the continuous holiday effect has eased , It will be clearer after observing for a few days.

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However, Professor Zhan Changquan of National Taiwan University School of Public Health pointed out that in January this year, 1,055 people died from the epidemic, and 379 people were added in just five days from February 1 to 5, with an average daily death toll of 76 people.

This number of deaths is far from the goal of "coexisting with the new crown with a low mortality rate" of less than 10 daily deaths from the new crown. It is really bad for the current number to continue.

Luo Yijun, deputy head of the medical response team of the command center, explained that the third domestic wave of Omicron epidemics began in mid-December. After the 10-day Spring Festival holiday, it is easier to see the impact when the holiday is long, including the public's willingness to reduce the screening test until the holiday is accepted. Screening before and after, the positive cases were notified at about the same time, and then there was a decrease in the Spring Festival notifications, and the recent fluctuations in the number of confirmed cases were relatively high.

Luo Yijun illustrated with a chart that before the Spring Festival, the epidemic situation changed differently every day, but there were still some ups and downs, which were all within the expected range. However, the 7-day moving average had a sharp drop and a sharp rise in the start of work during the holidays. Check the decline At times, there were more than 20 cases in a single day, or even less than 20 cases, and when it rose, there were more than 100 cases, which led to some interpretations of external observations of the epidemic.

However, Luo Yijun pointed out that if the actual death date is examined, the death trend can be more truly reflected. From December 15 to the present, the daily curve is relatively flat. The main reason is that there will be no change due to the notification time limit of medical institutions.

The highest point of the recent 7-day moving average was 43.4 cases in early January, and the number of deaths in a single day reached 53 cases. There was no significant difference before and after the Spring Festival.

Wang Bisheng mentioned that sometimes when interpreting numbers, a short-term peak period is used as a comment, but severe illness and death are lagging indicators, reflecting the previous peak period. Therefore, using this number to judge at present cannot reflect the real situation, and the interpretation will be distorted .

The outside world believes that if my country's indoor mask restrictions are to be compared with South Korea's model, it is necessary to understand the black number of domestic epidemics. Wang Bisheng emphasized that the domestic plan is not to be completely compared with South Korea, but has been discussed for more than 2 months and has been analyzed in detail. It is waiting Appropriate time, including observing the development of the domestic epidemic situation and measures taken by various countries.

As for the black number, it seems that about 40% of the population has been diagnosed. It is estimated that the actual number of infected people is more than 60%, between 60% and 70%.

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