[Central News Agency] A Washington Post columnist quoted intelligence analysts on the 4th as saying that the Chinese reconnaissance balloon invasion of the United States at this time may be to show its strength, or internal hardliners want to sabotage the visit of US Secretary of State Blinken, but it may also be caused by a series of mistakes. .

David Ignatius, a diplomatic columnist for The Washington Post, wrote on the 4th that intelligence officials are unclear why Beijing chose to fly surveillance balloons over the United States at this time, especially in Brinken. (Antony Blinken) on the eve of his visit to China, but there are several possibilities.

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One possibility, Ignacis said, is that China is attempting to show its strength through spy balloons, given a host of internal problems including slow economic growth, popular political struggles and mismanagement of the COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) outbreak.

Opportunities to embarrass the United States are always attractive to the belligerent regime of Chinese President Xi Jinping, especially with Washington's recent calls for "freedom of navigation operations" in the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea, he said.

In addition, Ignacis pointed out that another possibility that intelligence analysts consider is that hard-liners in the Chinese military or leadership want to sabotage Blinken's trip. The main purpose of his trip is to seek to establish strategic stability measures or Guardrails to reduce the possibility of inadvertent conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan or other issues.

Blinken announced the postponement of his visit to China on the 3rd after it was revealed that the Chinese spy balloon had invaded the United States, and severely criticized Beijing for violating the sovereignty of the United States and violating international law.

The last possibility is simply a series of mistakes.

This can happen in any intelligence or military operation, Ignacis said, as one Pentagon official put it: "Sometimes the left hand doesn't know what the right hand is doing."

Another Washington Post columnist, Ishaan Tharoor, analyzed that the reconnaissance balloon incident caused more harm to China than the United States.

Beijing has tried to adopt a more friendly gesture this year, hoping to dispel growing international fear and dissatisfaction with China.

Blinken's visit to China may have turned a new page for the United States and China, but this incident has instead highlighted the seriousness of the tension between the two sides.

In addition, some people believe that Xi Jinping and his core aides may not have anticipated the reconnaissance balloon incident.

Zhao Minghao, a professor at the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, pointed out in an interview with the China Post that from the perspective of China’s top leaders, they would not want to disrupt the process of easing tensions with the United States, because this year is very important for China to revive its economy year.

Shahrur revealed that some officials in the Biden administration also think so.

The British "Financial Times" (Financial Times) quoted a U.S. official as saying that the incident was unexpected by the Chinese side, and they didn't even have a set of explanations at first.

Shahrur pointed out that if Xi Jinping and China's top leaders really know nothing about the reconnaissance balloon, it will raise more disturbing questions, including whether factions in the CCP's internal power structure want to undermine Xi Jinping's authority.

Overall, this incident may be beneficial to the Biden administration, and it is expected to gain more bargaining chips.

(Editor: He Hongru) 1120206