Russian President Volodymyr Putin deliberately draws attention to the northeastern sections of the border between Ukraine and Russia in order to divert the attention of the Ukrainian command from other areas of the front and at the same time further intimidate his citizens with Ukrainian "neo-Nazi formations". 

This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

ISW analysts took into account the meeting on the restoration of housing infrastructure in Crimea, Belgorod, and Bryansk, which was held by Putin on February 1.

On it, he noted that his administration prioritizes the cessation of Ukrainian shelling of Russian border regions, but that this task is "a matter for the military department."

"Putin's focus on the danger of Ukrainian shelling of border regions likely serves a dual purpose. It facilitates an information operation aimed at portraying the war in Ukraine as a threat to the existence of Russian citizens in order to gain domestic support for a protracted war," the ISW report said.

Putin can also set the stage for escalating cross-border raids to distract and disperse Ukrainian forces from critical lines of advance, pinning them to the northeastern border regions. 

ISW also notes that a new Russian invasion from Belarus is now extremely unlikely, and the ongoing information operation to attach Ukrainian troops to the northern Ukrainian-Belarusian border appears to be backfiring, as Ukrainian officials increasingly view the threat as unlikely.

Earlier, the former speechwriter of Russian President Vladimir Putin, political scientist Abbas Galyamov, said that the probability of a military


in Russia

is increasing 

against the background of the continuation of the war in Ukraine.

According to him, this moment may come in the next 12 months.

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