A Russian offensive in the coming months is the most likely development of the war started by the

Russian Federation

under the leadership of dictator Putin. 

This is stated in the report of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

ISW assesses that Russian forces appear to be preparing for an imminent offensive in eastern Ukraine, in particular in the Luhansk region.

"Ukrainian officials continue to support ISW's assessment that an

imminent Russian offensive in the coming months is the most likely course of action

, and have further suggested that Ukrainian forces plan to launch a larger counteroffensive," the report said. 

The Russian military will likely continue to build up conventional forces in Luhansk Oblast and increase the deployment of remaining forces mobilized in eastern Ukraine to support imminent decisive strategic action in Luhansk Oblast.

In support of their opinion, the Institute for the Study of War cites the words of the Secretary of the National Security Council Oleksiy Danilov, who stated in an interview with Sky News that

Russian troops are preparing for "maximum escalation" in Ukraine

within the next two to three months and may do so in two to three weeks to coincide with the first anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

In an interview with the Washington Post on January 31, the head of the Main Directorate of Military Intelligence (GUR) of Ukraine, Kyrylo Budanov, also stated that Russian forces will focus on occupying a larger area of ​​Luhansk and Donetsk regions.  

At the same time, as Danilov suggested, Ukrainian forces have their own operational plans for the coming months.

Similarly, Budanov said, who emphasized that

Ukrainian forces must return Crimea illegally seized by Russia under Ukrainian control by the summer of 2023. 

What is known about the new offensive of the Russian Federation

The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyi, reported on

 preparations for a new offensive by Russia, stating that the state is already responding to such "preparations for an attempt at revenge."

The head of the Luhansk Oblast, Serhiy Gaidai, also warns that the occupying forces 

are preparing for offensive actions in the Luhansk region in February.

In turn, the Secretary of the National Security Council, Oleksiy Danilov, stated that

 Ukraine is also vigorously preparing for a potential new offensive by the Russian occupation forces.

Ukrainians should also be prepared for information attacks prepared by the enemy.

In addition, Danilov indicated the first sign that 

Russia is preparing for a new offensive.

The representative of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense, Vadym Skibitsky, doubts that the invaders will leave Belarus.

According to him, 

the main battlefield will be in Donbas.

Military expert Serhii Grabskyi believes that the

 new probable offensive of the Russian army may fall on February 24

, but the exact date is unknown, because it depends on the dynamics at the front, and the possibility that the Russians will try to launch an attack even earlier cannot be ruled out.

The Donetsk, Luhansk and Zaporizhia directions are dangerous.

Ihor Levchenko, a military analyst at the Army, Conversion and Disarmament Research Center, is convinced that it 

is unlikely that an enemy offensive will take place in the south, and it is unlikely that this will be the opening of a new front.

General of Poland Waldemar Skzypchak suggests that 

Russia can attack Ukraine from its own territory - 

from the direction of Voronezh, Kursk, Bryansk, move from there in a southern direction, west of Kharkiv, along the Vorskla River, which flows into the Dnipro.

Under this scenario 

, Poltava and Dnipro are under attack.

Western officials have also warned that the occupiers are preparing for a new offensive on Ukraine in the spring, but, as CNN reports, the West 

doubts that the offensive will be successful. 

Previously, the ISW stated that the probable offensive from Belarus could begin 

no earlier than the fall of 2023.

Read also:

  • World news

  • War in Ukraine

  • News of Ukraine: video

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