Russian forces are trying to prevent Ukraine from regaining the initiative, perhaps on the eve of Russia's planned "decisive" offensive in Donbas.

The occupiers want to carry out several stages of offensive actions, the culmination of which, according to their plan, should be the capture of all of Donbas.

This is stated in the report of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which was published in the morning of January 29.

ISW recalled the statement of the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Federation Valery Gerasimov, who said that Putin's army is concentrating its main efforts on capturing the Donetsk region.

American experts believe that this will probably lead to Russian troops capturing key positions in the west of the Luhansk region and the northeast of the Donetsk region in order to enter the administrative borders of the regions.

Specialists also drew attention to the fact that near Vugledar, the Russians resumed ground attacks.

The enemy is also conducting small assaults in the Zaporizhzhia region and around Donetsk.

At the same time, analysts write that the main focus of the current efforts of the occupiers is the Bakhmut district, where the Russians are conducting a large-scale offensive operation.

Instead, the occupiers conduct a defensive operation on the Svatove-Kreminna line.

"

Localized attacks on Vugledar and populated areas of Donetsk and Zaporizhia regions, as previously assessed by ISW, are probably aimed at dispersing Ukrainian troops and creating conditions for a Russian offensive in the west of Luhansk region. 

It is possible that Russian troops are trying to disperse the Ukrainian group on the Svatov-Kreminna line, to enable the Russian Federation to recapture Lyman of the Donetsk region," the report says. 

American ISW ​​analysts suggest that Russian forces may try to

use Liman as a starting point for a decisive offensive

, conducting

an offensive from Liman in tandem with an offensive on Bakhmut, or from Bakhmut in the direction of Slavyansk,

if the Russians succeed in capturing Bakhmut. 

"Most likely, the

Russians intend to carry out several phases of offensive actions, culminating in an advance to the borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

These phases will probably require six to 12 months of the Russian campaign, if they are possible at all," the report said.

At the same time, ISW believes that Russian forces lack the combat power necessary to support more than one major offensive operation.

Based on the analysis of the occupiers' capabilities, the experts concluded that

"the ability of the Russians to carry out large-scale rapid offensive actions in several directions this winter and in the spring is very doubtful."

"There is no open source evidence to suggest that Russian forces have recovered sufficient combat power from their losses in the early stages of the war to allow Russian forces to conduct simultaneous large-scale offensive actions in the next few months. From early 2022, the

Russian military have not demonstrated the ability to conduct simultaneous combined arms offensive operations.

Russia's recent successes around Bakhmut have been based on months of human wave attacks to secure the area around Bakhmut with brute force at a huge human cost," the experts added.

However, ISW warns that 

the Russian military leadership may be planning a new offensive operation based on false assumptions about the capabilities of the Russian army.

"If Russian forces attempt a simultaneous mechanized offensive over the next two months, they will likely disrupt Ukrainian efforts to mount a counteroffensive in the short term, but such a Russian offensive would likely be prematurely terminated during the spring rainy season (if not earlier) before to achieve significant operational effects", concluded 

ISW.

It will be recalled that Serhiy Cherevaty, the spokesman of the Eastern Group of the Armed Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces,

commenting on a possible new offensive of the Russian Federation,

said: "How will the enemy attack? Probably, he will try to attack with those mobilized who have been called up now?".

According to Cherevaty, Russian "mobs" are not professional soldiers, even though they may have received some training.

These are people who were torn from a peaceful life, emphasized the spokesman of the Eastern Group of Forces. 

As the adviser to the head of the President's Office, Mykhailo Podolyak, previously stated,

Russia's new offensive against Ukraine will not be the same

as on the night of February 24, 2022, due to a lack of resources and a change in the position of the aggressor country.

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