Military commentator Oleksandr Kovalenko put forward his versions of why the active phase of the armed forces' counteroffensive has not yet begun.

He wrote about it on the Internet.

Kovalenko recalled that he himself predicted the beginning of a noticeable advance of Ukrainian troops at the end of 2022. 

"On the other hand, if the active phase has not started, then there must be some objective reasons for that, right? After all, the combat zone is a gigantic area with an operational situation that is constantly changing, which is affected by many factors, about which many of which many do not even suspect," the observer drew attention.

He spoke about the factor that is constantly changing according to the level of development of events in the combat zone.

"I think many have heard the version that the

Armed Forces of Ukraine are waiting for the formation of units made of completely Western models of equipment and will use them to launch a counteroffensive.

Perhaps this version has the right to life, but the formation of such units can take up to two months, and perhaps and three. It's hard to say exactly," Kovalenko wrote.

At the same time, he noted that it is safe to say that the intensity of the use of artillery in the Russian army continues to decrease.

So, until the end of January 2023, the average rate of shots per day is 15,000, and in November-December, the norm was 20,000 shots.

According to the observer, the occupiers can concentrate intense artillery fire on limited areas and for limited periods of time.

"For example, in the area of ​​Bakhmut or Avdiyivka. In the area of ​​Vugledar, due to the lack of artillery and BC in a proportional number of ROV (Russian occupation troops - ed.), the offensive failed again," Kovalenko noted.

According to his estimates, in a few months

enemy artillery fire will decrease to 10,000 per day

, and it will be increasingly difficult for the occupiers to cover even limited areas of the front line with fire.

"The

lower the potential of the Russian artillery, the more successful the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces

of Ukraine and the smaller the losses in both personnel and equipment. In fact, assault BTGr on Western equipment break through the enemy's defense lines, which cannot effectively conduct defense..." - explained the observer.

"The

counteroffensive of the Armed Forces continues every day, every hour

. And its essence is to exhaust the enemy, which is happening right now. But when the active phase will begin, only the General Staff of the Armed Forces knows, you and I can only speculate and build theories," Kovalenko summarized .

What is needed for a counterattack 

In the GUR, the Ministry of Defense previously explained that in order to prepare a counteroffensive or an offensive operation, it is necessary to destroy many enemy objects both on the front line and in the enemy's rear (100-150 km).

Therefore, Ukraine needs tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and heavy weapons (long-range artillery) to form powerful strike groups.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy clarified that 300-500 tanks are needed to carry out offensive actions of the Armed Forces.

He emphasized that the number of tanks and the terms of their transfer to Ukraine are important.

At the same time, the Defense Forces of the South informed that there the Armed Forces were exhausting the occupiers by destroying their warehouses and deployment sites.

In this way, Ukrainian fighters are preparing for a possible counteroffensive.

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  • Ukraine news

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