According to the current assessment and forecast of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Kremlin is likely to be preparing for decisive strategic actions - most likely in the Luhansk region - in the next 6 months, aimed at regaining the initiative and ending the current series of operational successes in Ukraine .

ISW also quotes Bloomberg, which writes that according to Kremlin insiders, Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing a new offensive against Ukraine, which could begin as early as February or March 2023.

According to Russian officials, Kremlin advisers and other media sources, Putin believes that Russia will be able to win the war in the long run, despite the setbacks so far.

According to ISW, Russia's decisive strategic action in the Luhansk region can be either a major offensive or a defensive operation aimed at defeating the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

The latest limited Russian ground attacks in the Zaporizhia region may be aimed at dispersing Ukrainian forces.

Russia is redeploying parts of the 2nd motorized rifle division from Belarus to the Luhansk region, ISW notes.

This may indicate that the new Russian offensive is most likely aimed at the Luhansk region, although it may also take place in the Vuglyadar region of western Donetsk.

It is very unlikely that this new offensive will be directed to the north of Ukraine from the territory of Belarus.

Analysts note that there are still no signs that Russian troops are forming strike groups in Belarus.

Russian elements in Belarus largely use Belarusian infrastructure and training potential for training rotation.

Russian military bloggers also increasingly attribute the idea of ​​a repeated attack on Kyiv to an information operation and believe that the most likely target of the Russian offensive will be eastern Ukraine or the neighboring Kharkiv region, according to the summary.