The year 2023 may become decisive in the war with Russia, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will have good opportunities for an offensive.

Experts assess whether the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to finally liberate the territory of the country from the invaders in 2023, and name various scenarios for victory over the Russian Federation.

TSN.ua collected forecasts and opinions of analysts regarding the terms and scenarios of the end of the war, voiced on the air of the "Freedom" channel.

Pessimistic scenario

Mykhailo Podolyak

, an adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine ,

 warned of a possible "pessimistic scenario" if Ukraine does not receive adequate help from the West in time.

"A pessimistic scenario awaits us if we do not receive the amount of weapons we need, if the economic sanctions are not finalized in terms of the possibility of obtaining certain additional attributes for the production of weapons. Roughly speaking, there are a lot of these "ifs", - explained the adviser to the head of the OPU.

According to him,

the most pessimistic scenario, from which Ukraine's partners are repelled, is that "in 2023, it is possible not to liberate something from the territories temporarily occupied by Russia

. "

As Podolyak emphasized,

the liberation of Crimea is currently considered "necessary for the correct end of the war"

.

"And in the same way, we are now returning to the fact that, of course, if Ukraine does not receive the appropriate nomenclature, the appropriate amount of tools for the further conduct of the war, then, of course, the war may drag on," he added.

When Ukraine can be cleared of the occupiers

The former spokesman of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine ,

Vladyslav Seleznyov

, predicts that

by the end of August 2023, Ukraine will reach the state border of the 1991 model, and "then the most interesting thing will begin

. "

"But it's obvious that the most interesting thing will start already outside the borders of our country. What exactly? I don't know. We'll wait for the relevant clarifications from General, head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine Kyryl Budanov," says Seleznyov.

According to him, the Ukrainian army should create "appropriate reserves and resources that will allow it to act effectively within the framework of the de-occupation of our country."

"For this, we need to provide personnel with everything necessary in certain areas of the future counteroffensive.

Because it is obvious that any military operation of operational tactical level - active combat operations for two to four weeks at most

," - noted the expert.

Oleksandr Musienko

, head of the Center for Military Legal Studies ,

sees the prerequisites for a successful offensive of the Armed Forces in the south.

"I think that we have very good chances to liberate the occupied part of the southern regions, advance in the east and create at least the conditions for the entry into Crimea. At the most - to conduct, including a military or military-diplomatic and military-political operation to liberate of the Crimean Peninsula," said Musienko.

According to him, "there are chances for military victories."

"

But as for a complete victory, which would include the entire list, the entire list of everything - then it can stretch further

. In particular, the court in The Hague, the contribution can drag on for years," the expert noted.

The West is tired of Putin's threats

Former deputy of the State Duma of the Russian Federation, Russian oppositionist

Gennady Gudkov

predicts that the war will end "very sadly" for the Kremlin.

"

I think that the war will end in 2023 with the victory of Ukraine, or at least there will be such a state by the end of the year, when it will be clear

. Approximately, as in December 1944 it was already clear that the bunker would soon have a "lid". There in a few months after the war, separate negotiations and many other things have already begun. I recall the history of the last terrible World War II, and Russia does not have time - neither until 2025 nor until 2026. All this will end much sooner and it is very sad for them," Gudkov said.

In his opinion,

the only task that the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, sets before himself is "to scare the world with a bluff and try to somehow exchange the Ukrainian territory for the opportunity to preserve his power and his regime

. "

"He has no other option. But the world, as I understand it, will not go for it. The world is also already brutalized, is also already tired of this liar in the bunker, who threatens everyone with a nuclear apocalypse. I believe that the entire Western coalition, which helps and will support the Ukrainian people, decided to defeat Putin with the help of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation," said a former deputy of the State Duma of the Russian Federation.

Three stages of Ukraine's victory

Ihor Petrenko

, Doctor of Political Sciences ,

singled out three stages of victory:

"

One of the main stages of Ukraine's victory is the liberation of the territories captured after February 24, 2022. Next is the exit to the internationally recognized border of 1991.

I think we will limit ourselves to this. There will definitely be no exit to other territories. We have a completely different approach to the Russian Federation.

But the third stage is the victory of Ukraine within the framework of security guarantees from our partners

. That's when the final victory of Ukraine will come."

As Petrenko emphasized, "for Russia, in principle, defeat has already come."

"Strategically, they lost in everything. That is, they lost all the achievements they had over the past decades. Let's say that Europe's energy dependence on Russia was their victory, as was Nord Stream 2, deep partnerships with Germany and France were built. "The

Russian Federation was considered as a possible potential ally or partner for China - this was its victory.

They lost all this, so in strategic terms they have already lost

," the political scientist explained.

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  • War in Ukraine

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